Research Events

NAFTA at 20: Effects on the North American Market

June 5 – 6, 2014

Houston Branch

The two-day conference in Houston sought to disentangle the economic effects due to NAFTA from the many other changes that have occurred since its implementation.

Agenda

Thursday, June 5
8 a.m.	Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:30 a.m.	Opening Remarks
	Daron D. Peschel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch Irving A. Williamson, U.S. International Trade Commission Mine K. Yücel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
9 a.m.	Keynote Address
	Moderator: Mark A. Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The Challenge of Predicting the Impact of Trade Reform Timothy J. Kehoe, University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
9:45 a.m.	Session 1: Trade and Welfare Effects
	Moderator: José Romero Tellaeche, El Colegio de México Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA Lorenzo Caliendo, Yale University *Fernando Parro, Federal Reserve Board of Governors Predicting the Effects of NAFTA: Now We Can Do It Better! Serge Shikher, U.S. International Trade Commission
10:45 a.m.	Session 2: Growth, Trade and Foreign Direct Investment
	Moderator: Alan Deardorff, University of Michigan Identifying The Effects of NAFTA on the U.S. Economy Between 1992 and 1998: a Decomposition Analysis *Peter B. Dixon, Victoria University Maureen T. Rimmer, Victoria University Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in Mexico: 1940–2013 José Romero Tellaeche, El Colegio de México
11:45 a.m.	Lunch
	Introduction Jesus Cañas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Gone to Texas: Immigration and the Transformation of the Texas Economy Pia M. Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
1 p.m.	Session 3: Economic Effects of NAFTA and China on Mexico
	Moderator: William Powers, U.S. International Trade Commission International Competition and Industrial Evolution: Evidence From the Impact of Chinese Competition on Mexican Maquiladoras Luis B. Torres Ruiz, Texas A&M University Hale Utar*, Bielefeld University
2 p.m.	Plenary Session
	Moderator: Pia M. Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NAFTA: Retrospect and Prospect Anne O. Krueger, Johns Hopkins University
2:45 p.m.	Session 4: Trade and Productivity Linkages
	Moderator: Edward C. Skelton, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The Impact of NAFTA on U.S. Labor Markets Justino De La Cruz, U.S. International Trade Commission David Riker, U.S. International Trade Commission The Long and Short of Empirical Evidence on the Impact of NAFTA on Canada* Eugene Beaulieu, University of Calgary
3:45 p.m.	Session 5: External Shocks and Trade Liberalization
	Moderator: Serge Shikher, U.S. International Trade Commission NAFTA and the Evolving Structure of Canadian Patterns of Trade and Specialization *Richard Harris, Simon Fraser University Nicolas Schmitt, Simon Fraser University The Producer Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalization When Goods Are Perishable and Habit-Forming: The Case of Asparagus Peyton Ferrier, U.S. Department of Agriculture
5:15 p.m.	Reception
6 p.m.	Dinner
	Introduction Mine K. Yücel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas North American Energy: A Clear Path Forward? Kenneth B. Medlock III, Rice University
7:30 p.m.	Adjourn
Friday, June 6
8 a.m.	Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:20 a.m.	Opening Remarks
	Justino De La Cruz, U.S. International Trade Commission
8:30 a.m.	Keynote Address
	Moderator: Mark A. Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NAFTA and Mexican Industrial Development Eric A. Verhoogen, Columbia University
9:15 a.m.	Session 6: Rules of Origin, Border Crossing for Trucks
	Moderator: André Downs, Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Canada NAFTA Rules of Origin: Adaptation in North America and Emulation Abroad Antoni Estevadeordal, Inter-American Development Bank Jeremy T. Harris, Inter-American Development Bank U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico Border Crossing for Trucks: 20 Years After NAFTA* Alan Fox, U.S. International Trade Commission Pilar Londoño-Kent*, Londoño-Kent Associates
10:15 a.m.	Session 7: Trade Creation and Greenhouse Emission
	Moderator: Alan Fox, U.S. International Trade Commission Designing a Greenhouse Gas Emission Market for Mexico Jaime Sempere, El Colegio de México
11:15 a.m.	Session 8: The Border Region and NAFTA
	Texas Border in Transition Moderator: Jesus Cañas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Income in the Border Region, 1993-2010 James Gerber, San Diego State University Wage Convergence in Mexico Andre Varella Mollick, University of Texas–Pan American
12:15 p.m.	Session 9: NAFTA and the North American Integration (working lunch)
	Moderator: Richard Harris, Simon Fraser University The North American Integration Model (NAIM): Description and Preliminary Results *Shenjie Chen, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Canada *Peter B. Dixon, Victoria University Catherine Milot, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Canada Maureen T. Rimmer, Victoria University
1:45 p.m.	Session 10: The Future of NAFTA, Policy Perspective
	Moderator:: Jesus Cañas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Justino De La Cruz, U.S. International Trade Commission Alan Deardorff, University of Michigan Richard Harris, Simon Fraser University *Timothy J. Kehoe, University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis The Future of NAFTA José Romero Tellaeche, El Colegio de México
2:45 p.m.	Closing Remarks
	Jesus Cañas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
3 p.m.	Adjourn

*Presenter