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El Paso Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators

June 29, 2021

While still not fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the El Paso economy grew in May. The business-cycle index expanded, buoyed by employment growth. El Paso County’s vaccination rate outpaced that of the state’s. Consumer spending remained solid and above prepandemic levels. Both home sales and median prices continued to climb amid tightening inventories.

Business-Cycle Index

The El Paso Business-Cycle Index rose an annualized 4.5 percent in May, supported by job gains and a decline in the unemployment rate (Chart 1). The index is still down 3.9 percent compared with prepandemic levels (February 2020).

Chart 1

Labor Market

In May, El Paso employment expanded an annualized 2.2 percent, or 574 jobs (Chart 2). Growth was largely driven by increases in professional and business services (254 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (190).

Chart 2

Year over year in May, El Paso payrolls were up 4.5 percent, or over 13,500 jobs. Nearly all sectors experienced job growth, including leisure and hospitality (6,670 jobs), professional and business services (2,723), and manufacturing (1,384). Only the government sector experienced employment losses during this period, losing 2,456 jobs.

El Paso’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell from 7.3 percent in April to 6.9 percent in May but remained above the Texas (6.5 percent) and U.S. (5.8 percent) rates.

Vaccinations

COVID-19 vaccines are critical to not only saving lives but also the pace of economic recovery. As of June 25, the rate of residents age 12 years and older vaccinated fully in El Paso County was 62.8 percent, while Texas’ vaccination rate trailed at 48.2 percent (Chart 3).

Chart 3

Consumer Spending

El Paso County consumer spending (as measured by credit and debit card spending) has completely recovered and is above prepandemic spending levels (Chart 4). As of June 13, spending in the county was up 16.1 percent from January 2020 compared with an increase of 13.5 percent in Texas.

Chart 4

Housing Market

El Paso home sales totaled an annualized 10,548 units in May, up 1,824 units from a year ago, or an increase of 20.9 percent (Chart 5). The median home price in El Paso reached $193,466 in May, appreciating 9.3 percent since last year. Existing-home inventories stayed tight at 1.1 months in May.

Chart 5

NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions. The El Paso metropolitan statistical area includes El Paso and Hudspeth counties.

About El Paso Economic Indicators

Questions can be addressed to Keighton Hines at keighton.hines@dal.frb.org. El Paso Economic Indicators is published every month after state and metro employment data are released.