Agricultural Survey

Quarterly comments

District bankers were asked for additional comments concerning agricultural land values and credit conditions. These comments have been edited for publication.

We have continued dry conditions after an extreme heat wave last month. Therefore, wheat pasture will be short.

It’s mostly an insurance year for our dryland producers. The areas that had some rain through planting are still not looking favorable. After a good stand in the field, no moisture through August has left yields likely below average. Cotton prices are shaping up for the low 60-cent level. Below average yields, 60-cent-per-pound prices and elevated inputs will leave most producers with a crop in our area losing net income.

Our area of the Texas Panhandle has been extremely dry. Supplemental feeding of livestock began at the beginning of August. Hay is plentiful due to the wheat and rye that was harvested for hay. Irrigated crops are in fair to good condition, dryland crops are poor to very poor. Depressed prices are a cause for concern.

Recent rain in our area has improved the outlook for everything. However, low crop prices and the high input costs will create a severe problem. There are concerns about the future of crop insurance as well.   

We recently had good rains. Farmers are beginning to plow for fall wheat. The cattle market is still strong

Demand for cattle loans continues to be strong.

Hurricane Beryl made landfall in the coastal plains in early July causing widespread damages at the point of harvest for our producers. Several farms totaled out crops and filed for insurance to cover debts and expenses, while others have supplemental hurricane coverage that offsets yield reductions from damage. Loan repayments have accelerated from insurance proceeds but are still comparable to if a crop had been harvested. Grain prices have been depressed, although showing some signs of a rebound, so many producers are holding grain in on-farm storage. Cattle prices have remained stable, and weather conditions have been favorable, resulting in excellent pasture and hay reserves. Downward pressure in cattle futures currently don't materially impact repayment expectations.

So far 2024 has been a tough year for the farmer. However, yields have been exceptional for soybeans and above average for corn. It’s too soon to tell for cotton. The prices are the big stumbling block for the producer this year.

Historical data

Historical data can be downloaded dating back to first quarter 2000.

• Land Values
• Cash Rents
• Farm Lending Indexes
• Loan Volume Indexes by Loan Type
• Anticipated Farmland Values and Credit Standards
• Interest Rates by Loan Type

Charts

What changes occurred in non-real-estate farm loans at your bank in the past three months compared with a year earlier?

What changes occurred in the volume of farm loans made by your bank in the past three months compared with a year earlier?

What trend in farmland values do you expect in your area in the next three months?

What change occurred in credit standards for agricultural loans at your bank in the past three months compared with a year earlier?

Tables