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Surveys

Special Questions

Texas Business Outlook Surveys
August 26, 2024

Special Questions

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on expected demand, employment and impacts from recent storms. Results below include responses from participants of all three surveys: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and Texas Retail Outlook Survey.

Texas Business Outlook Surveys

Data were collected August 13–21, and 341 Texas business executives responded to the surveys.

1. How do you expect demand for your firm’s goods and/or services over the next six months to compare with the past six months, aside from seasonal variation?
  Feb. '23
(percent)
Nov. '23
(percent)
Feb. '24
(percent)
Aug. '24
(percent)
Increase substantially 8.0 4.1 4.8 3.0
Increase slightly 34.7 34.0 47.1 44.2
Remain the same 30.4 33.4 27.7 30.1
Decrease slightly 20.4 22.4 17.1 20.0
Decrease substantially 6.5 6.1 3.4 2.7

NOTES: 335 responses. In February 2023, the question asked about 2023 versus 2022.

2. What is your assessment of your firm’s current employment situation in light of your six-month outlook?

Oct. '22
(percent)
Jan. '23
(percent)
Jun. '23
(percent)
Dec. '23
(percent)
Aug. '24
(percent)
We are understaffed and looking to hire for new positions 30.8 27.8 25.2 21.4 17.0
We are understaffed and looking to hire for replacement only 19.7 18.6 19.0 16.9 14.9
We are understaffed but opting not to hire at this time 12.3 14.0 11.8 13.1 14.0
We are at our ideal staffing level 21.2 23.0 28.6 29.7 36.3
We are overstaffed but opting not to lay off workers at this time 4.8 6.8 10.6 14.6 12.5
We are overstaffed and laying off workers 3.6 3.9 2.8 2.6 2.7
Other 7.7 5.8 2.0 1.7 2.7

NOTE: 336 responses.

3. Did your firm experience any negative impact from the storms over the past few months?

Aug. '24
(percent)
No 74.2
Yes 25.8

NOTE: 325 responses.

3a. Please indicate what impact(s) and when.

May '24
(percent)
Jun. '24
(percent)
Jul. '24
(percent)
Reduced revenue/sales/production 20.7 14.6 56.1
Extended loss of power 18.3 13.4 48.8
Workforce disruption (absenteeism, etc.) 17.1 13.4 48.8
Damaged facility and/or equipment 12.2 11.0 29.3
Reduced demand 7.3 11.0 23.2
Transportation and/or supply-chain disruptions 9.8 8.5 22.0
Delayed hiring 6.1 3.7 7.3
Workforce reduction (furloughs or layoffs) 0.0 1.2 2.4
Other 2.4 2.4 2.4

NOTES: 82 responses. This question was only posed to those who experienced a negative impact from the storms over the past few months.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data were collected August 13–21, and 82 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.

1. How do you expect demand for your firm’s goods and/or services over the next six months to compare with the past six months, aside from seasonal variation?
  Feb. '23
(percent)
Nov. '23
(percent)
Feb. '24
(percent)
Aug. '24
(percent)
Increase substantially 11.0 5.7 5.5 1.3
Increase slightly 30.0 33.0 46.2 53.8
Remain the same 28.0 29.5 23.1 20.0
Decrease slightly 17.0 20.5 17.6 22.5
Decrease substantially 14.0 11.4 7.7 2.5

NOTES: 80 responses. In February 2023, the question asked about 2023 versus 2022.

2. What is your assessment of your firm’s current employment situation in light of your six-month outlook?

Oct. '22
(percent)
Jan. '23
(percent)
Jun. '23
(percent)
Dec. '23
(percent)
Aug. '24
(percent)
We are understaffed and looking to hire for new positions 29.8 29.0 23.2 18.9 17.3
We are understaffed and looking to hire for replacement only 21.3 19.0 23.2 16.7 19.8
We are understaffed but opting not to hire at this time 13.8 17.0 8.5 16.7 16.0
We are at our ideal staffing level 14.9 17.0 26.8 27.8 27.2
We are overstaffed but opting not to lay off workers at this time 8.5 9.0 13.4 18.9 13.6
We are overstaffed and laying off workers 4.3 3.0 2.4 1.1 2.5
Other 7.4 6.0 2.4 0.0 3.7

NOTE: 81 responses.

3. Did your firm experience any negative impact from the storms over the past few months?

Aug. '24
(percent)
No 68.8
Yes 31.2

NOTE: 77 responses.

3a. Please indicate what impact(s) and when.

May '24
(percent)
Jun. '24
(percent)
Jul. '24
(percent)
Reduced production 26.1 4.3 69.6
Extended loss of power 17.4 4.3 52.2
Workforce disruption (absenteeism, etc.) 13.0 4.3 47.8
Damaged facility and/or equipment 8.7 8.7 34.8
Transportation and/or supply-chain disruptions 13.0 4.3 34.8
Reduced demand 0.0 0.0 21.7
Delayed hiring 8.7 4.3 8.7
Workforce reduction (furloughs or layoffs) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 8.7 8.7 4.3

NOTES: 23 responses. This question was only posed to those who experienced a negative impact from the storms over the past few months.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Data were collected August 13–21, and 259 Texas business executives responded to the survey.

1. How do you expect demand for your firm’s goods and/or services over the next six months to compare with the past six months, aside from seasonal variation?
  Feb. '23
(percent)
Nov. '23
(percent)
Feb. '24
(percent)
Aug. '24
(percent)
Increase substantially 7.0 3.6 4.5 3.5
Increase slightly 36.2 34.3 47.4 41.2
Remain the same 31.2 34.7 29.3 33.3
Decrease slightly 21.6 23.0 16.9 19.2
Decrease substantially 4.0 4.4 1.9 2.7

NOTES: 255 responses. In February 2023, the question asked about 2023 versus 2022.

2. What is your assessment of your firm’s current employment situation in light of your six-month outlook?

Oct. '22
(percent)
Jan. '23
(percent)
Jun. '23
(percent)
Dec. '23
(percent)
Aug. '24
(percent)
We are understaffed and looking to hire for new positions 31.1 27.5 25.8 22.3 16.9
We are understaffed and looking to hire for replacement only 19.3 18.5 17.8 16.9 13.3
We are understaffed but opting not to hire at this time 11.8 13.1 12.7 11.9 13.3
We are at our ideal staffing level 23.0 24.9 29.1 30.4 39.2
We are overstaffed but opting not to lay off workers at this time 3.7 6.1 9.8 13.1 12.2
We are overstaffed and laying off workers 3.4 4.2 2.9 3.1 2.7
Other 7.8 5.8 1.8 2.3 2.4

NOTE: 255 responses.

3. Did your firm experience any negative impact from the storms over the past few months?

Aug. '24
(percent)
No 75.8
Yes 24.2

NOTE: 248 responses.

3a. Please indicate what impact(s) and when.

May '24
(percent)
Jun. '24
(percent)
Jul. '24
(percent)
Reduced revenue 18.6 18.6 50.8
Workforce disruption (absenteeism, etc.) 18.6 16.9 49.2
Extended loss of power 18.6 16.9 47.5
Damaged facility and/or equipment 13.6 11.9 27.1
Reduced demand 10.2 15.3 23.7
Transportation and/or supply-chain disruptions 8.5 10.2 16.9
Delayed hiring 5.1 3.4 6.8
Workforce reduction (furloughs or layoffs) 0.0 1.7 3.4
Other 0.0 0.0 1.7

NOTES: 59 responses. This question was only posed to those who experienced a negative impact from the storms over the past few months.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Data were collected August 13–21, and 49 Texas retailers responded to the survey.

1. How do you expect demand for your firm’s goods and/or services over the next six months to compare with the past six months, aside from seasonal variation?
  Feb. '23
(percent)
Nov. '23
(percent)
Feb. '24
(percent)
Aug. '24
(percent)
Increase substantially 4.4 3.5 1.8 2.1
Increase slightly 23.5 31.6 36.4 29.2
Remain the same 39.7 33.3 30.9 39.6
Decrease slightly 29.4 28.1 30.9 25.0
Decrease substantially 2.9 3.5 0.0 4.2

NOTES: 48 responses. In February 2023, the question asked about 2023 versus 2022.

2. What is your assessment of your firm’s current employment situation in light of your six-month outlook?

Oct. '22
(percent)
Jan. '23
(percent)
Jun. '23
(percent)
Dec. '23
(percent)
Aug. '24
(percent)
We are understaffed and looking to hire for new positions 31.8 24.3 26.7 20.0 6.3
We are understaffed and looking to hire for replacement only 19.7 24.3 18.3 20.0 18.8
We are understaffed but opting not to hire at this time 9.1 11.4 8.3 10.9 12.5
We are at our ideal staffing level 22.7 31.4 33.3 30.9 31.3
We are overstaffed but opting not to lay off workers at this time 7.6 8.6 13.3 12.7 18.8
We are overstaffed and laying off workers 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 8.3
Other 6.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 4.2

NOTE: 48 responses.

3. Did your firm experience any negative impact from the storms over the past few months?

Aug. '24
(percent)
No 70.8
Yes 29.2

NOTE: 48 responses.

3a. Please indicate what impact(s) and when.

May '24
(percent)
Jun. '24
(percent)
Jul. '24
(percent)
Reduced sales 28.6 14.3 64.3
Extended loss of power 14.3 14.3 50.0
Reduced demand 14.3 7.1 35.7
Workforce disruption (absenteeism, etc.) 7.1 14.3 35.7
Damaged facility and/or equipment 21.4 7.1 21.4
Transportation and/or supply-chain disruptions 14.3 14.3 21.4
Workforce reduction (furloughs or layoffs) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Delayed hiring 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0

NOTES: 14 responses. This question was only posed to those who experienced a negative impact from the storms over the past few months.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Chemical manufacturing
  • Hurricane Beryl forced a shutdown of all three units. There was some delay in getting personnel back on schedule. There was no damage of note.
Primary metal manufacturing
  • Our staffing will increase once the capital spending project provides the equipment and process capable for production.
Fabricated metal product manufacturing
  • The storm had a significant negative impact on July performance.
Machinery manufacturing
  • Due to power failures, we have lost two weeks of production. Until the reliability of the Houston grid improves, we will be operating like a third-world country—only working when the lights are on.
  • We are a very small company but have been through seven to eight people in three years. They are either incapable or unskilled.
Computer and electronic product manufacturing
  • Our industry is shipping below 2019 (prepandemic) levels. There is a clear sign of customer inventory correction as all regions have grown GDP over the last four to five years. Given this, we would expect things to normalize and revenues to grow as customers moderate inventory reductions.
  • Our roof has been damaged, and the insurance company is refusing to fix it.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Merchant wholesalers, durable goods
  • After 22 years in business, revenue has dropped to the point we are considering closure at year-end.
Real estate
  • We opted to pay all employees who were unable to work because of Hurricane Beryl (mostly power outages). We lost a fair amount of productivity as a result.
Rental and leasing services
  • The storms that have impacted us were not Hurricane Beryl, which went right over the center of Houston and my two Houston facilities. It is the storms of tax provisions that are sunsetting, interest rate increases, regulations, inflation and our political process.
Professional, scientific and technical services
  • The business climate is getting worse in the U.S. and the global market, from what we see from our customer demand and purchase orders issued.
  • We are a virtual team, so power and Wi-Fi disruption hit half of our team, which slowed down our productivity.
  • We saw decreased sales in storm-affected areas.
  • We've been looking to hire experienced, qualified staff for a year now but have not had many interested or qualified candidates. Our cost of doing business is going up with increases in wages, benefits, insurance and software subscriptions.
  • Finding qualified engineers with at least six years of experience is very difficult right now. We have been looking to fill a position in our Fort Worth office since January. That position is still open.
  • The market and economy are top priorities.
Administrative and support services
  • Many of our customers in Houston were affected by the storm and lost power. As a result, we were unable to service them or provide them products.
  • Both the derecho and Hurricane Beryl were disruptive to employees and clients.
  • We are not optimistic about the future and are cutting every expense possible including wages of current staff.
Texas Retail Outlook Survey
Amusement, gambling and recreation industries
  • The lengths of extreme weather conditions as well as the extreme weather forecasts decrease attendance.
Food services and drinking places
  • Significant storms hurt our customers and employees, not to mention our revenue, and always have. Unfortunately, poor preparation and response by the power transmission company is a significant repetitive problem. Geometrically increasing P&L [public liability] insurance costs, not to mention problems getting fully insured, also drain profitability.
Personal and laundry services
  • I am optimistic and expect business to improve over the next six months if Trump is elected president. Trump has promised a low tax environment and pro-business stance that will stimulate the economy. If Harris wins the election, I will not feel as optimistic over the next six months.

Questions regarding the Texas Business Outlook Surveys can be addressed to Emily Kerr at emily.kerr@dal.frb.org.

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