Special Questions

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data were collected June 17–25, and 77 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.

NOTES: 67 responses. Shown are averages, calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 5 percent of responses omitted.

NOTE: 72 responses.

NOTE: 73 responses.

NOTE: 74 responses.

The following question was posed to those indicating they are currently experiencing supply-chain disruptions/delays in question 4.

• Longer lead times at the factory and port.

• Price increases due to tariffs.

• Items from Japan and Europe.

• We are seeing delays for batteries and magnets.
• Uncertainty in the manufacturing of electronics products, increased costs for chips and other issues have created uncertain demand. We have also seen a 100 percent drop in customer business-to-business order volume due to uncertainty. The increase in parts costs has also delayed customer demand.
• Shortages due to tariffs. We are unable to find product or can only find it at a prohibitive cost. Vendors are not able to price products and have to go through additional hoops for procurement approval for regular items. 

• There is no certainty of prices (as they are subject to fluctuating tariffs) for imported supplies.
• Fresh vegetables from Mexico have been disrupted or delayed. We also source new machinery from Europe and have seen increased costs from tariffs and delayed delivery times.

• Customers spent too much time trying to game the shipping and arrival of certain items from China to try and avoid tariff costs.

• Lots held up because of tariffs.

• Adding to the complexity and slow recovery of our global supply chain, the tariffs are creating an impossible environment to plan, both for our business activity and resources including labor, as well as pricing for our products and services.
• Lower availability of raw materials produced domestically, resulting in international purchases and increased prices, including tariff-related charges, as well as longer lead times.
• Tungsten, which is virtually unavailable in the U.S., is required to be imported. Due to tariff increases from China (primary supplier of tungsten), delays have been initiated pending further negotiations with the administration.

• Offshore partners are trying to minimize the disruption of the constantly evolving tariff environment. Place orders, cancel orders, arrange shipping, look for a domestic source. This is silly. Sure, remove barriers to free trade, but play chess not checkers. It's indisputable that the tariffs are being paid by domestic fabricators and consumers, not bad apples offshore. 

• Tariff uncertainty and already higher rates are having a negative impact on our business and seemingly affecting consumer spending.
• Tariffs with no option to purchase items from U.S. It will take a while for U.S. factories to be able to produce the raw materials needed.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Data were collected June 17–25, and 253 Texas business executives responded to the survey.

NOTES: 217 responses. Shown are averages, calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 5 percent of responses omitted.

NOTE: 72 responses.

NOTE: 240 responses.

NOTE: 236 responses.

The following question was posed to those indicating they are currently experiencing supply-chain disruptions/delays in question 4.

• Electronic testing equipment from overseas suppliers has become harder to source and secure delivery times.

• Eggs continue to be limited on some deliveries.
• Delay in container delivery, delays or uncertainty in receiving restaurant equipment and furniture.
• We purchase all of our green coffee supplies internationally, as well as all of our coffee packaging, cups and most of our supplies. There have only been minor interruptions in the past few months, but the pressure is building as inventories are running lower and competition for product is slightly increasing, likely due to short-buying over the past several months in anticipation of tariff relief and lower prices.

• Our company's offerings include third-party logistics services, which are responsible for arranging transportation, receiving, storing, and distributing inventory. Some customers have shifted inventory or are lowering production of certain items in anticipation of tariffs, particularly those on China. However, in other cases, customers have pulled inventory forward. While the volume balance nets out close to even, a more protectionist tariff regime will likely reduce overall volumes in the long term as pulled-forward inventory dwindles.

• Lead time for many commercial items is running weeks to months longer than normal.
• Our customers are canceling projects.
• Longer lead times on some computer-related equipment due to tariffs on China.
• Construction costs are up due to steel and aluminum tariffs. It is difficult to forecast budgets due to uncertainty of tariff impacts. This causes project owners problems and may lead to delayed or canceled building projects.

• There are projects we have abandoned altogether due to supply-chain disruptions, solar energy being one of the most difficult.

• Needed parts for repair or maintenance have an eight-week backorder or delay. Most of these parts are sourced from Asia.
• Our clients are experiencing disruptions primarily due to pricing changes impacting demand (ex: U.S. steel and aluminum companies jacking up prices when tariffs were going up or down.) Also, efforts to front load materials and components ahead of expected tariffs, which were then not necessary after schizophrenic decisions to postpone them. All this inconsistency causes manufacturing companies to jump through hoops unnecessarily.

• General uncertainty is causing our clients to source from various regions, which adds complexity to the supply chain.

• Parts needed are taking two months longer to produce.

• Liberation Day was like kicking an ant hill in the HVAC industry supply chain. It has been crazy ever since. Price hikes from many suppliers. We expect delays later because so much stuff did not hit the water like it normally does.

• Refrigerant transition to R-454B.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Data were collected June 17–25, and 42 Texas retailers responded to the survey.

NOTES: 38 responses. Shown are averages, calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 5 percent of responses omitted.

NOTE: 38 responses.

NOTE: 38 responses.

NOTE: 38 responses.

The following question was posed to those indicating they are currently experiencing supply-chain disruptions/delays in question 4.

• Tariffs.
• Clothing items that originate in China but mostly South Korea. Metal items such as posts and metal water troughs.

• Vehicles and components produced in foreign countries are being held at their plants until clarity on pricing is resolved.
• Vehicles built outside the U.S. are delayed or resulted in canceled production. Continued delays with parts in the distribution chain.
• Vendors have been unwilling to send items we need as they have held them hoping that tariffs will go down.

• Not sure why other than the tariff scare. Vendors have been going back and forth with available units.
• Imported costs have been added to our wholesale cost.

• Delays.

• Some brands tried to move production to other countries and quickly. The goods won't be ready on time, and it is uncertain if the quality will be the same.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Special Questions Comments

Survey participants are given the opportunity to submit comments. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• Although the supply chain is not disrupted, the tariff uncertainty and China's response impact to the global economy has substantially impacted the 2025 business outlook worse than the COVID period.

• Tariff costs are starting to flow through to us from our international suppliers as we purchase replacement parts and bring them into our inventory.

• If tariffs are not imposed on several countries being subsidized to ship products into the U.S., while also dumping, our future is very uncertain.

• Tariffs against Mexico and Canada would be very disruptive.

• The Federal Reserve has become the problem after COVID, supply chain, inflation, tariff scare and world events.

• There is too much uncertainty. Hopefully market conditions will improve. We are three years into a massive freight (rate) recession.

• My concerns about domestic policy are primarily related to uncertainty about tax code changes.
• There is certainly the risk of inflationary conditions, but it is too early to measure if any substantial cost increase has taken place. Fuel prices are down across the nation and even cheaper in Texas. There’s also a potential impact of any resolution for stablecoin on the money supply.

• Suppliers appear to be raising prices in anticipation of higher tariffs, rather than just passing on actual added costs.

• We are a construction machinery dealer. Customers are actively looking at new equipment purchases, but very few are pulling the trigger. They are waiting on politicians to stop all the pontificating and pass some version of tax and depreciation relief.

• My firm is a consulting business and provides no supplies or equipment; however, the firms I consult with are limiting investment due to the uncertain future of tariffs as well as everything else that has to do with supply chains and markets.
• President Trump is destroying our democracy and violating so much of the U.S. Constitution. Tariffs are a tax on us.

• The impact of the April 9 Executive Order to modernize the defense acquisitions is still an unknown. What we are experiencing is a delay in several major agency contract awards.
• There are a lot of unknowns regarding future work, but currently, it is not impacting design or construction.
• Our capital costs increased this year because we moved our office for the first time in 35 years.
• We are seeing a slowdown in the proposals we are writing. We are also seeing an increase in the time it takes to award a project. It looks like demand is waning a little.

• Tariffs are costing us money. It's ridiculous.

• It would be refreshing to see convincing evidence that our president actually understands how tariffs work and who pays for them. He has been on the record recently, and for years, insisting that economists and the media are wrong when they say U.S. importers, retailers and consumers pay the cost of his tariffs.

• A big issue is that we have a large percentage of our customer base who are Hispanic. They are not moving freely through the economy. They go to work and go home.

• Consumers are getting fatigue from the uncertain times with COVID and now tariffs.