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Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

President's Perspective

Rob Kaplan, president and CEO of the Dallas Fed, regularly speaks and writes on the factors that affect economic growth in the nation and Eleventh District. Here are some of his recent thoughts on key issues:
On Interest Rates and Global Government Debt

“It is my view that the level and shape of the Treasury curve are reflective of slowing global growth, heightened trade tensions and a more pessimistic view regarding the prospects for U.S. economic growth. Pessimism regarding prospects for global growth is also one key reason why approximately 22 percent of global government debt is now trading at negative yields.”

“Economic Conditions and the Key Structural Drivers Impacting the Economic Outlook” (essay)—Oct. 10, 2019

On the U.S. Economy

“The U.S. may outperform the rest of the world, but we are not immune to slowing global growth and issues around the world. Approximately 45 percent of S&P 500 revenues come from outside of the U.S. It’s one of the reasons why manufacturing in the U.S. is weaker than it has been in the last 10 years and why business fixed investment is very sluggish.”

Comments at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Conference, Washington, D.C.—Oct. 18, 2019

On Recent Trade Developments

“Some of the recent deceleration in global growth, weakness in manufacturing and weakness in business investment has been due to trade uncertainty. So, I think to the extent that there is some moderation in this escalation, that could be a positive development.”

Comments at the Commonwealth Club of California, San Francisco, California—Oct. 11, 2019

Southwest Economy is published quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Articles may be reprinted on the condition that the source is credited to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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