A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Options for modernizing the FOMC’s operating target interest rate
The Federal Open Market Committee primarily adjusts the stance of monetary policy through its target range for the federal funds rate. We discuss whether the fed funds rate remains the right operating target for short-term interest rates.
September 25, 2025
Oil and gas activity slips again on elevated uncertainty, higher costs
Activity in the oil and gas sector declined slightly in the third quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
September 24, 2025
Lags, Leave-Outs and Fixed Effects
To avoid endogeneity, financial economists often construct regressors and/or instruments using values from other observations, with lagged and leave-out variables being common examples. This paper examines the use of such variables in common settings with fixed effects and shows that it can induce bias and distort inference.
September 23, 2025
What is keeping core inflation above 2 percent?
How much is current "excess" inflation? We take a new approach to this question, focusing on movements in relative prices.
September 23, 2025
Subcontracting in Federal Spending: Micro and Macro Implications
This paper studies the critical but underexplored role of subcontracting in shaping the spatial and firm-level effects of federal government spending.
September 22, 2025
Agricultural Survey
Bankers responding to the third-quarter agriculture survey reported somewhat better conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.
September 22, 2025
Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.
September 19, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.3 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.0 to 1.6 percent.
September 19, 2025
Austin Economic Indicators
Austin employment ticked up in July, and the unemployment rate held steady, while wages rose. Home prices continued to decline.
September 17, 2025
Houston Economic Indicators
Houston’s economy weakened as employment in the metro area declined an annualized 0.9 percent over the three months ending in July. However, unemployment ticked down slightly as both the size of the labor force and the number of unemployed people declined.
September 10, 2025