Real-Time Population Survey (RPS)
October 23, 2020
Employment Rate Drops in Mid-October
- The employment rate for working-age adults (18–64) was 68.4 percent in the RPS for the week of Oct. 11–17, a decrease relative to the estimate of 69.0 percent for the week of Sept. 27–Oct. 3.
- In mid-September, the RPS employment rate of 67.5 percent was below the most recent Current Population Survey (CPS) estimate of 69.3 percent for working-age adults. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which draws on the CPS for its unemployment rate report, continued to report that some individuals “with a job but absent from work because of the coronavirus” were misclassified as employed during the CPS interviewing process.
In contrast, the RPS did not record an unusually high number of persons not at work, suggesting that the same misclassification did not occur in the RPS. Reclassifying the individuals absent from work in the CPS survey leads to an adjusted employment rate among working-age adults of 68.7 percent for the week of Sept. 6–12.
Unemployment Rate Falls
- The unemployment rate in the RPS was 11.6 percent for Oct. 11–17, a decrease relative to the estimate of 12.7 percent for Sept. 27–Oct. 3.
- In mid-September, the unemployment rate of 11.1 percent in the RPS exceeded the official CPS estimate of 7.6 percent for working-age adults (18–64) and is also above the alternate estimate of 8.1 percent after reclassifying those “absent from work because of the coronavirus’’ as unemployed.
Labor Force Participation Decreases
- The labor force participation rate was 77.3 percent in the RPS for Oct. 11–17, a decrease relative to the estimate of 79.0 percent for Sept. 27–Oct. 3.
- In mid-September, the RPS participation rate estimate of 75.9 percent exceeded the CPS estimate of 75.0 percent.
The RPS was developed by Alexander Bick, an associate professor at WP Carey School of Business at Arizona State University; Adam Blandin, an assistant professor in the Department of Economics at Virginia Commonwealth University; in collaboration with Karel Mertens, a senior economic policy advisor in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.