Agricultural Survey

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What changes occurred in non-real-estate farm loans at your bank in the past three months compared with a year earlier?

What changes occurred in the volume of farm loans made by your bank in the past three months compared with a year earlier?

What trend in farmland values do you expect in your area in the next three months?

What change occurred in credit standards for agricultural loans at your bank in the past three months compared with a year earlier?

Quarterly comments

District bankers were asked for additional comments concerning agricultural land values and credit conditions. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• Conditions are extremely dry and commodity prices remain low, affecting our farm producers.
• It’s extremely dry with high fire danger in the Panhandle. Farm projections are showing declining liquidity and equity. Cow-calf operators are seeing record profits due to high calf prices. Feedyard head counts continue to decline with tightening beef supply.

• Farm Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments are going to make a difference. Not enough, but [it is] real help

• Drought conditions have producers concerned. Wheat pasture is in poor condition. In general the economic outlook is bleak. The cost of insurance has skyrocketed, forcing producers to cheaper options with less coverage. Low commodity prices matched with high inputs do not bode well for positive cash flow projections.

• We had a decent cotton crop regionally, however, the low cotton prices created hardships to cover input costs. Wheat is looking decent as well, as we have had some rainfall of late.

• Rice farmers in the area are suffering substantially. The dramatic decline in price last fall significantly impacted the producers in a negative way. The ad hoc government payments being sent out as we speak will be helpful, but not enough to make up the drop in price. Producers will have to lean on accumulated equity to borrow for the 2026 crop year.
• Farm income projections for 2026 still remain weak with dependence on government assistance from the FBA and future Price Loss Coverage payments to manage cashflow underwriting. Persistent drought conditions deepen risks, as planting has started for grain crops. The current outlook in local farming for 2026 continues to worsen. Cattle requests still remain strong, as cow herd inventories nationally continue their decreasing trend. Increased prices for replacements have increased the need and demand for borrowing. We will be watching drought conditions this spring to assess risk of local market price fluctuations. The bank has been reviewing both farm and ranch requests with more scrutiny given farm weaknesses and downside price risk for cattle. Farm and ranch land prices have started to come off highs, as interest rates remain elevated compared to historical lows. Fed posturing limits hope of future rate cuts, and borrowing for ag properties remains modest.

• Agricultural land values appear to be stable and holding. Demand for small ranch tracts is good and continues to bring premium prices. Drought conditions continue to prevail across the region with no real sign of relief in sight. Some producers have delayed plantings taking a wait-and-see approach to determine what best to plant to maximize returns and minimize losses.

• The 2026 farming season has begun. Commodity price expectations are stable to lower than 2025. Winter moisture was welcomed in February, but dry, windy conditions persist, and moisture is needed, particularly on range land. Cattle prices remain very high, but uncertainty exists within the ranching community.

Historical data

Historical data can be downloaded dating back to first quarter 2000.

• Land Values
• Cash Rents
• Farm Lending Indexes
• Loan Volume Indexes by Loan Type
• Anticipated Farmland Values and Credit Standards
• Interest Rates by Loan Type