Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

Comments from survey respondents

Survey participants are given the opportunity to submit comments on current issues that may be affecting their businesses. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• Part of what is increasing our uncertainty is specific to us. Highway construction in our area is beginning to influence our number of visitors. We expect this to be an issue for a number of years.

• All of our customers seem to be getting used to uncertainty. Headlines about Iran, Russia and China don't seem to be affecting demand as much as they did last year. Having the tariffs go away, or at least be reduced, is a benefit to us. We are still seeing input cost inflation, particularly in copper and as we hire new employees.
• Uncertainty happens in our industry when there is a risk of higher interest rates, contributing to a decrease in confidence among industrial customers and it delays projects tremendously.

• Uncertainty and instability at the federal level.
• Had some customers load up on inventory in July, which has caused us to have a slower August than expected.
• Geopolitical uncertainty and immigration issues are still worrisome.

• We are seeing dramatic price increases in some metals.

• We are definitely in a slowdown.
• Our manufacturing has increased significantly and we have invested in new and more automated manufacturing equipment.
• It's a great season of productivity and prosperity across all of our business lines. It's rare, but we're thankful to be firing on all cylinders! To what do we give the credit? Well, it's hard to say exactly. Our current administration has done much to support our growth. Interest rates are stable enough to allow our customers to make investments. Geopolitical issues have been a positive in our industry overall. We're blessed to be able to source good labor at fair rates. Ultimately, it's a lot of answered prayers, bottom line! Yes, we have good leadership, and the general economy has provided favorable tailwinds. Business remains strong with a large new job starting production this month.

• Our consumers are clearly feeling economic pressure.
• High retail prices for regular consumer charges hurts our business.

• Raw material increases announced. Slight uptick in overall business.

• Our industry was positively impacted by the recent administration actions strengthening Section 232 tariffs on aluminum products. These measures have encouraged more onshoring of business and have helped support investment, jobs and capacity within the U.S. aluminum industry. Since those actions were implemented, however, we are seeing increasing efforts particularly involving China and other Asian countries to circumvent U.S. tariffs. This includes transshipment and other methods of moving aluminum products through third countries and into the United States, including through our neighboring countries and U.S. territories. This is a serious concern for the domestic aluminum industry. If the Section 232 tariffs on aluminum from Canada and Mexico are reduced, it could create an economic advantage and a pathway for additional imports, particularly Chinese material, to enter the United States through North American supply chains. That could undermine the very domestic manufacturing capacity and jobs that the current tariff policy was intended to protect. The goal should not simply be to shift where imported aluminum enters the United States. The goal should be to build and maintain a competitive, reliable domestic aluminum supply chain that serves America's strategic and economic interests. Weakening the tariff structure could ultimately result in lost U.S. jobs, reduced investment, and the loss of critical domestic extrusion and manufacturing capacity.

• Activity levels feel slower and less than in years past for August. We are still feasting on the large jobs that we won months ago, and we need to find some other large projects to carry us through the fall months. We are very concerned about the overall state of the economy with all the chaos out of Washington, D.C. plus ongoing issues overseas and how that may impact our business activity.

• Our business-to-business customers are regaining confidence in CapEx spending as they need to catch up after 1-2 years of not buying new trucking equipment.

Special questions

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on demand and margins. Results below include responses from participants from both the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. View individual survey results.