Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

Comments from survey respondents

Survey participants are given the opportunity to submit comments on current issues that may be affecting their businesses. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• We continue to see pressure on profitability. We are profitable, but barely. The challenge is the increase in costs we are paying for our raw materials. The increase in diesel costs is the justification we are being told from our suppliers. Being able to give our employees year-end raises to keep up with inflation will be a further pressure on profitability.

• Higher interest rates affect our industry in a big way.
• A change in government in November will likely affect the future outlook.

• Some product mix changes, but overall we’re forecasting a fairly positive picture over the next 6 months.

• Geopolitics, labor issues and recession/inflation worries.

• Business is strong, with many new existing projects ramping up, and we’re continually receiving new business opportunities.
• Activity is up and down; right now we are up.
• The data center bubble will burst soon, but a viable business model underlies it that will survive, just on a smaller scale. The creative destruction of the free-market system will prevail.

• It's difficult to find manual labor workers right now. We are hopeful the political climate will change in November and things overall will get better.

• We remain concerned about the ongoing USMCA negotiations, particularly as they relate to Mexico and the potential impact on the U.S. aluminum industry. Our industry appreciates that the U.S. Commerce Secretary recognizes the risks associated with reducing tariffs on Mexican aluminum imports. Such reductions could create opportunities for increased shipments and transshipments of aluminum products from Asia and other countries into the U.S. market, potentially undermining the intended protections for American manufacturers. China remains a significant competitive concern for the U.S. aluminum extrusion industry. Chinese aluminum producers benefit from government subsidies, and concerns regarding the use of forced labor in Chinese supply chains raise additional questions about fair competition. These practices can place U.S. manufacturers at a significant disadvantage when competing against artificially low-priced imports. We believe any changes to USMCA must carefully address these risks and prevent trade provisions from becoming a pathway for circumventing U.S. tariffs. Protecting American manufacturing requires trade policies that promote fair competition, enforce meaningful rules of origin and prevent unfairly traded products from gaining an unintended advantage in the U.S. market.

• Data centers spending money on flimsy steel and HVAC systems does not make the economy robust. Rates should come down for those of us that have to support the system in the long term.
• We are getting to be really slow and low on work which concerns me greatly. Many of our competitors were slow this summer when we were busy with large projects we have done for many years in a row during the summer months. Now it's our turn I guess to be slow. 

• Fuel pricing and the cost of domestic product increasing are dramatically tempering a recovery in the freight market.
• Outlook plans will depend on the midterm outcomes and the Fed’s interest rate action.

Special questions

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on credit conditions. Results below include responses from participants from both the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. View individual survey results.