Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Historical data are available from January 2007 to the most current release month.

Historical data are available from January 2007 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

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Texas Retail Outlook Survey

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Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Comments from survey respondents

These comments are from respondents’ completed surveys and have been edited for publication.

• It seems that there has been a psychological bump in the economy since the election. We'll see how viable that bump is over the long term.
• A new administration always has implications for business which are not fully known for six months to a year.
• The results of the elections will make drastic changes in the areas of spending by various government entities (local through national). Had the Democrats retained control consistent direction would have been maintained. With the Republicans in charge, the direction of spending will be totally upended and uncertainty will persist for the next year or so.
• The threat of a reduced rate of our premiums (title policy premiums) combined with the increased cost to combat fraud are our highest concerns.
• We experienced some slowdown in customer decisions after the election.
• We have been operating on the belief, with no real evidence, that a significant number of our customers were waiting to see the outcome of the U.S. election and were holding or postponing projects due to that situation. Regardless, work has declined rapidly in the fourth quarter of 2024, including our own. But we are also seeing a rapid increase in available talent and resources, which we believe indicates a rapid, industry wide scale-back in IT project spending. The uncertainty is driven by the lack of response to the actual election results and therefore a curiosity about what the real driver was, or whether companies have just not yet developed strategies for 2025 to deal with the new business climate.
• The election and the political rhetoric created undue stress on our three employees and the clients we serve. Even though the election is behind us, several of our nonprofit partners are weary and are carrying a tremendous amount of stress on what is to come for the critical work they are doing in the community.
• The level of business activity in the industrial construction industry has significantly decreased. Housing and large subdivision work has remained steady.
• Uncertainty in future federal funding support for transportation infrastructure has created a bit of a chilling effect moving forward. Uncertainty is the key word here.
• There’s uncertainty about the new administration with regard to tariffs and immigration including work visas.
• It seems business trends are becoming more predictable, and everyone is planning better.
• Until the real estate market can determine where the 10-year is going to settle, we will continue to experience a sluggish market. We are optimistic that this will happen in the near future and transactions will begin to happen at a more normal level.

• The presidential election outcome will likely decrease banking's regulatory burden over time. Governmental efficiency studies are long overdue. The challenge will remain to reduce our U.S. debt level. The agriculture sector, specifically farmers, is facing the toughest economic times we have witnessed in 42 years as a commercial banking agricultural lender. On the income side, low commodity prices with ever-increasing costs of production (operating costs) create increasing challenges to getting 2025 farm operating loans approved due to inadequate cash flows. The expired Farm Bill creates additional unknowns.

• We are not able to recover from the pirating of our brand name. We will either pass along the franchise to someone else or close the doors at year-end.
• Companies were very slow to make any final hiring decisions in November, possibly due to the election. We would not say anything has changed since the election is over, but perhaps it will pick up briefly after Thanksgiving and before the holidays. The white-collar job market is still very slow, clients are taking much longer to make decisions even if they lose candidates along the way to other companies.
• There is uncertainty as to how the new administration will perform.
• It was great that the election went off without much incident and that the outcome was so decisive that we, as a country, avoided the protests and bloodshed that might have occurred otherwise. Stability is good both in the election process, but also in the general procession of government. Policy changes are expected, and desired, but chaotic implementation is unnecessary.
• The election is over, thankfully.

• The election result uncertainty is over, but the incoming administration’s regulatory policy is still unclear. We anticipate numerous regulations to be overturned, which in turn could be a boost to business.

• October was the first month in the last six when we made our annual budget. Things continue to be expensive, but inflation has leveled off. We just completed our 2025 budget, and we see some growth in occupancy; however, we will be implementing a room renovation at the first of the year that will run through mid-year. The displacement of revenue will exceed $1 million but will get us more competitive and ready for 2026, which looks very strong for group business.

• We have to wait and see what the newly elected administration will do regarding trade with Mexico. Looming tariff implementation is a big concern, since we move international containers and cargo exclusively.

• We are in a bit of wait-and-see mode at the moment following the election. We believe the new administration will enact policies that will increase oil and gas production, and thus will be good overall for the port.

• It is very unusual for us to have a slow November. Business is abnormally slow.

• Political uncertainty introduced by the new administration will take some time to sort itself out. In the meantime, we continue to see pressure from the lower rate environment, which is gradually improving but still not driving renewed capital investment.
• More uncertainty in government contracts with continuing resolutions and questions on budget cuts.

• The election is over, and the anticipation of a positive change has improved attitudes and markets. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by announcing the quarter-rate reduction of the discount rate. We will wait and see if the new administration can improve the economic and geopolitical environment. The biggest challenge will be how the national debt will be addressed.
• While the immediate outlook has not changed significantly, we are seeing some signs that activity will improve going into the first quarter of 2025.
• We are concerned about the economic cycle after the Federal Reserve rate cuts. We are concerned and think the Federal Reserve began lowering rates while inflation was still high.

• We experienced a slowdown in commercial real estate leasing activity and expect that to continue if widespread tariffs are imposed and if mass deportations are implemented.
• It's safe to say we have seen a bump in activity after the election on the lower-middle-market business sell side. Buyers are still plentiful as the system deals with excess cash. Small business uncertainty has languished.

• We are seeing some softness and slower pay from our retail, restaurant, and service and hospitality business clients buying insurance.

• There’s no doubt that having a pro-business versus pro-government administration is impacting business in the field significantly already.
• Tariffs on Korea would be horrible for our business.

• Labor supply seems to be good. Wages stabilizing.
• With the election settled, we are hopeful some meaningful policies will start to emerge that support small business. However, we are worried about trade policy, mainly tariffs on imports, and retaliation from our trading partners.

• The chaos we expect to have to endure over the next four years will just insert an ongoing level of uncertainty into the economy. And, if the tariff wars begin, it could crush our business.
• Margins remain a concern. Expect profits to continue to decline for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. New vehicle inventories are too high. Pre-owner days of supply is too low.
• There continues to be uncertainty in the retail auto industry about interest rates, electric vehicle sales and consumer sentiment.

• There’s a lack of business activity.

• We are worried about getting paid fairly and on time by PBMs, insurance companies, and the federal government (Medicare).

• We think now that the election is over, people are ready to get back to work, especially with a pro-business administration. People are already looking to purchase more.

• With the election uncertainty behind us, we are hopeful that inflation will moderate and general business activity will improve.
• We think the new administration will do things to help the economy and businesses grow and move forward. Our concern is that any trade war could increase our cost of doing business and create supply line interruptions similar to what we experienced during COVID. It was very difficult to maintain profitable margins during the COVID years because of rapid overnight price increases on the cost of goods.