Not all price increases are equal; pandemic-era outliers drove inflation spike
Many individual price changes make up widely used gauges of inflation. Their relative importance changes over time and may affect how consumers perceive inflation. Such perceptions can prompt households to update their inflation expectations, decreasing optimism about real economic activity.
June 18, 2024
Swap lines curbed global dollar shortages, appreciation during COVID-19 crisis
During the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, imbalances in the offshore dollar funding market led to safe-haven appreciation of the dollar. Fed swap lines between the U.S. central bank and counterparts abroad addressed these imbalances, subsequently helping reduce the cost of offshore dollar borrowing, reversing dollar appreciation and providing liquidity.
May 21, 2024
Texas high tech shakes off post-pandemic slump, readies new growth path
Texas is poised to lead in new advanced technologies, notably artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor manufacturing.
May 03, 2024
Disparate supply-side forces gave U.S. economy an edge
The U.S. economy boasts robust growth and slowing inflation despite the highest interest rates in two decades. Such performance isn’t common globally, especially among other advanced economies, revealing crucial differences in the fundamental factors driving inflation and growth.
March 26, 2024
Revisiting the odd behavior of the Beveridge curve as unemployment stays low
At first glance, it seems unlikely that the unemployment rate would remain stable if the number of job vacancies decreased. However, such a scenario played out recently as the number of firms seeking to fill positions by poaching employees from other firms increased, while the ranks of the unemployed remained relatively stable.
March 05, 2024
Inflation forecasts based on money growth proved accurate in 2021, though generally unreliable
As money demand changes, and in particular as money velocity fluctuates with interest rates, this relationship can become unstable with money growth providing limited useful information for inflation forecasting.
February 20, 2024
Arbitrage limits heighten dollar shortages abroad during volatile times
U.S. dollars are hard to find in foreign markets during times of heightened risk, as evidenced by two interesting and related features in the post-2007 international financial landscape.
January 09, 2024
Women business owners in Texas get less financing than men do
Women in Texas who own small businesses struggle more than men to access loans, post-COVID data show, and the situation is worse for women of color.
December 01, 2023
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility.
September 29, 2023
Labor market recovery and wage growth unequal across age groups after pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic severely depressed U.S. labor force participation. Although the pandemic has eased, people ages 20–24 and those over 55 have been less likely to return to the workforce.
August 02, 2023