Labor market recovery and wage growth unequal across age groups after pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic severely depressed U.S. labor force participation. Although the pandemic has eased, people ages 20–24 and those over 55 have been less likely to return to the workforce.
August 02, 2023
Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest
While estimating r-star is fraught with difficulty, the latest evidence suggests U.S. monetary policy likely turned restrictive at the start of 2023, after the Federal Reserve started raising rates in March 2022.
July 03, 2023
Globalization Institute Working Paper
On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Novel Asset Market Monitoring Tools for Building Economic Resilience and Mitigating Financial Risks
This paper argues that asset pricing bubbles are an important source of financial instabilities.
June 02, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession
The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth because past instability in the demand for simple-sum monetary aggregates had made these aggregates unreliable indicators. This paper finds that the demand for more theoretically-based Divisia aggregates can be modeled and that their growth rates provide useful information for future nominal GDP growth.
May 25, 2023
Texas’ cheap housing edge slipping away as resilient demand outpaces supply
Housing affordability has declined in Texas, a top destination for domestic and international migrants drawn by its historically low cost of living.
April 21, 2023
Mexico awaits ‘nearshoring’ shift as China boosts its direct investment
When it comes to trading goods with the United States, Mexico would appear a logical sourcing alternative to China. Before the pandemic, increasing friction between the U.S. and China—the top supplier of goods imports to the U.S. in 2019—contributed to an anticipated “nearshoring” shift among companies dependent on Asia.
April 14, 2023
COVID-era eviction moratoriums improved financial well-being … while they lasted
This analysis leverages new eviction and credit data from Dallas County, Texas, to explore the impact of the moratoriums and to examine trends that surfaced once the moratoriums ended.
April 11, 2023
Pandemic painful for many self-employed women, but their numbers are rising again
Years before the term “she-cession” became part of our national lexicon, the number of businesses owned by women was growing at a rate more than twice that of all businesses. Despite their increasing importance to the economy, women-owned firms were less likely than firms owned by men to be financially healthy heading into the COVID-19 economic crisis.
March 23, 2023
Mexico recovering from pandemic slowdown; structural issues persist
Daniel Chiquiar, professor of economics at Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico) and former chief economist of Mexico’s central bank, Banco de México, discusses the country’s recent economic performance and the challenges it faces in 2023.
March 10, 2023
Capital flowed from emerging markets as pandemic, economic cycle took hold
Fluctuations in the global financial cycle, reflecting impacts from the COVID crisis, account for roughly one-third of the movement in emerging-market inflows during 2020–23.
March 07, 2023