Working Paper
Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?
This paper evaluates the forecasting ability when inflation is viewed as an inherently global phenomenon through the lens of the workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model.
December 20, 2022
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 3.5 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.2 to 3.7 percent.
December 16, 2022
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 4.3 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.9 to 4.6 percent.
November 18, 2022
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 4.4 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.9 to 4.8 percent.
October 21, 2022
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates that jobs will increase 4.2 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.7 to 4.8 percent.
June 16, 2022
Working Paper
Are Nonlinear Methods Necessary at the Zero Lower Bound?
This paper examines the importance of the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate by estimating three variants of a small-scale New Keynesian model.
August 01, 2016
Working Paper
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance
This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity.
December 31, 2014