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Forecasting

  • Remarks on liquidity provision and on the economic outlook and monetary policy

    Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered these remarks to the Texas Bankers Association in San Antonio, Texas, on May 18, 2023.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.5 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.5 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 3.5 percent.

  • Dallas Fed Economics

    Job vacancy, unemployment relationship clouds ‘soft landing’ prospects

    Some economists have argued that because the job vacancy rate has been well above its prepandemic level, there is plenty of room for vacancies to fall before the unemployment rate must rise.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 1.4 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.7 to 2.2 percent.

  • Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?

    This paper evaluates the forecasting ability when inflation is viewed as an inherently global phenomenon through the lens of the workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 3.5 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.2 to 3.7 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 4.3 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.9 to 4.6 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 4.4 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.9 to 4.8 percent.