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Forecasting

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 4.3 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.9 to 4.6 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 4.4 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.9 to 4.8 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates that jobs will increase 4.2 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.7 to 4.8 percent.

  • Working Paper

    Are Nonlinear Methods Necessary at the Zero Lower Bound?

    This paper examines the importance of the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate by estimating three variants of a small-scale New Keynesian model.

  • Working Paper

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

    This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity.