Skip to main content

Forecasting

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience

    This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.3 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.0 to 1.6 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 1.9 percent.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

    This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.

  • Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation

    In Depth: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.0 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 2.5 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 2.3 percent.

  • Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle

    The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.2 percent.