Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will increase 0.9 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.6 to 1.2 percent.
October 19, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Tariffs increased in 2025; why did U.S. imports grow?
The U.S. average tariff rate increased from 2.9 percent in January 2025 to 14.8 percent in December, a rise of almost 12 percentage points. The surge—the largest such U.S. jump since the Smoot-Hawley tariffs at the onset of the Great Depression in 1930—led to a sharp increase in the tariff-inclusive prices that U.S. importers paid.
October 06, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.
September 18, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.
August 21, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Alternative Trimmed Mean PCE inflation measure better tracked price surge
To gauge the medium-term trend in underlying inflation, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate drops price changes in the tails of the monthly distribution of PCE components, minimizing the impact of outliers.
August 13, 2026
Working Paper
Structural Estimation with Unstructured Data
Standard macroeconomic data do not cleanly separate the systematic and nonsystematic components of monetary policy. This paper shows that incorporating unstructured text data into the structural estimation of a DSGE model can sharpen this distinction.
July 31, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.0 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 2.5 percent.
July 17, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.
June 22, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Climbing the employment ladder tough when bottom rung is broken
Recent labor market data appear to reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Because aggregate layoffs remain low by historical standards, the upward drift in the unemployment rate over the past two years is often viewed as a benign normalization process rather than a cyclical vulnerability.
May 26, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.
May 22, 2026