Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast implies that employment growth was around zero in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.3 to 0.3 percent.
January 09, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 0.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.7 to 1.1 percent.
December 11, 2025
Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth
Findings from the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) suggest immigration policy changes will negatively affect the ability to hire and retain foreign-born workers at one in five Texas businesses this year.
October 17, 2025
Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.
October 09, 2025
Speech by President Lorie Logan
The case for modernizing the FOMC’s operating target rate
The time has come for the FOMC to prepare to target a different short-term interest rate. A repo rate would provide a more robust target than the current fed funds target.
September 25, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.
September 19, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.3 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.0 to 1.6 percent.
September 19, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 1.9 percent.
August 15, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy
This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity.
August 13, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.
July 18, 2025