Research Department Working Papers
Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.
September 19, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.3 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.0 to 1.6 percent.
September 19, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 1.9 percent.
August 15, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy
This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity.
August 13, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.
July 18, 2025
Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
In Depth: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.
July 08, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.0 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 2.5 percent.
June 20, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 2.3 percent.
May 16, 2025
Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle
The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.
April 22, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.2 percent.
April 18, 2025