Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.6 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 1.7 percent.
December 20, 2024
Rising unemployment doesn’t counter signs of strong GDP growth
Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP grew strongly during the second and third quarters of 2024, increasing at an annualized pace of 2.9 percent. Yet, the unemployment rate also rose 0.4 percentage points, an unusually large amount except during recessions.
December 03, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.2 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 2.4 percent.
November 15, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 2.7 percent.
October 18, 2024
Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable
The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?
October 08, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.2 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 2.5 percent.
September 20, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.4 to 2.4 percent.
August 16, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.4 to 2.4 percent.
July 22, 2024
Running the economy hotter for longer could steepen Phillips curve
In the short run, running the economy hot—with output growth above potential—comes with the cost of additional inflation. But policymakers cannot exploit this relationship forever because inflation expectations won’t remain anchored, as the public comes to expect a higher level of inflation for any given level of output.
July 16, 2024
Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
July 09, 2024