Dallas Fed Economics
Alternative Trimmed Mean PCE inflation measure better tracked price surge
To gauge the medium-term trend in underlying inflation, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate drops price changes in the tails of the monthly distribution of PCE components, minimizing the impact of outliers.
August 13, 2026
Working Paper
Structural Estimation with Unstructured Data
Standard macroeconomic data do not cleanly separate the systematic and nonsystematic components of monetary policy. This paper shows that incorporating unstructured text data into the structural estimation of a DSGE model can sharpen this distinction.
July 31, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.0 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 2.5 percent.
July 17, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.
June 22, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Climbing the employment ladder tough when bottom rung is broken
Recent labor market data appear to reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Because aggregate layoffs remain low by historical standards, the upward drift in the unemployment rate over the past two years is often viewed as a benign normalization process rather than a cyclical vulnerability.
May 26, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.
May 22, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Fed’s forecasting edge ebbed prepandemic, persisted in downside inflation surprises
We compare Federal Reserve Board staff forecasts with professional forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators for headline Consumer Price Index inflation. The relevant question then is not whether inflation forecasts matter, but rather what their content reveals.
May 21, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. housing: Unaffordable to buy, but wealth-building to own
A home is not only a place to live. It is a long-lived asset whose value reflects the housing service it provides over time and the return buyers require, given interest rates and risk. The ongoing combination of high house price-to-rent ratios and strained affordability suggests housing remains a macroeconomic vulnerability, though financial conditions appear more resilient than before the housing bust and subsequent Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
May 19, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Mexico gains from U.S.-China trade war; inefficiencies limit benefit
A sequence of major economic and geopolitical events has reshaped the structure of global trade in the past decade. It began with U.S. imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018. The postpandemic followed with widespread disruption to global value chains—the process of manufacturing a product in stages across several countries.
May 12, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.
May 01, 2026