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Forecasting

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.

  • Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation

    In Depth: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.0 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 2.5 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 2.3 percent.

  • Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle

    The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.2 percent.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge

    In August 2020, the Federal Reserve replaced Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) with Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), introducing make-up strategies that allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target. Using a synthetic control approach, this paper estimates that FAIT raised CPI inflation by about 1 percentage point and core CPI inflation by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a moderate impact net of food and energy and a largely temporary effect. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a steeper-than-expected post-pandemic Phillips curve in the New Keynesian model.

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis

    This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.6 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.6 percent.