Dallas Fed Economics
Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases
The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
April 03, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Even a ‘miracle’ needs a safety net: Texas leads in growth, lags elsewhere
While experiencing exceptional economic growth over the past decade, data show that Texas is last or lagging the nation in several key areas.
March 25, 2025
Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Worker- and Employer-Targeted Immigration Enforcement
This paper finds that immigration enforcement at the worksite is more effective when targeting the employer, such as conducting an audit, than when targeting the workers, such as in a raid.
November 19, 2024
Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
To determine the impact of the postpandemic U.S. immigration surge, the authors first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are primarily low-skilled relative to the existing workforce and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers. They then incorporate these features into a heterogeneous agent model with capital-skill complementarity.
October 01, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
July 09, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output
U.S. labor market conditions are among the main drivers of an unprecedented surge of immigration, the exact size and consequences of which are still being assessed.
July 02, 2024
Widening gap between rich and poor poses challenge to U.S.
Economist Jeffrey Fuhrer, a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Boston Fed director of research, discusses the nation’s income and wealth gaps and offers proposals to close them. Fuhrer’s recently published book, “The Myth that Made Us,” explores inequalities in the nation’s economic system.
December 13, 2023
Southwest Economy
State output remains distinctly Texan, while jobs mix increasingly resembles the U.S.
Lore and data have historically suggested that Texas is unlike any other place. Over the past 40 years, change has swept the state. Texas’ employment composition has increasingly come to resemble the entirety of the U.S., more so than even California or New York. But Texas economic output is another story.
November 17, 2023
Shreveport
Shreveport works to plug 'brain drain'
President Lorie Logan's 360° Listening Tour is taking her to communities all around the Eleventh Federal Reserve District during her first year at the Dallas Fed. The tour is helping deepen her understanding of the region’s people and economy by adding color and perspective that go beyond official statistics.
July 28, 2023
Economic Education
Classroom-ready presentations
January 20, 2023