Dallas Fed Recent Additions

Banking Conditions Survey, January 2020

The Eleventh District economy expanded solidly over the reporting period, with growth increasing in most sectors.

January 15, 2020

The Eleventh District financial sector continues to expand, according to respondents to the most recent Banking Conditions Survey.

January 15, 2020

After the Bust, the Long Road to Housing Finance Reform

An early January surge in tensions between Iran and the United States gave a transitory boost to oil prices.

January 14, 2020

The Treasury recently released a plan proposing several administrative and legislative changes aimed at returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector after more than a decade of federal control.

January 14, 2020

U.S. Economic Data

Market Value of U.S. Government Debt

For many uses, market value more accurately represents the debt burden faced by the U.S. government than the par value. The par value of government debt, which is reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, reflects interest rates at the time the debt was issued while the market value is adjusted to reflect market interest rates as of the observed period.

January 13, 2020

International Economic Data

International House Price Database

The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

January 09, 2020

The Houston Business-Cycle Index suggests the local economy continued to expand through November despite weakness in energy.

January 09, 2020

Large, Dominant Firms Depress Local Wages; Housing Costs Help Offset Lower Pay

El Paso’s economic expansion continued into November of last year. Total nonfarm jobs grew at a 1.1 percent annualized rate year to date through November.

January 07, 2020

Concern has increased about the ability of very large firms to exert market power and hold down wages in localities where they dominate.

January 07, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

Did Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Create Jobs and Stimulate Growth? Early Evidence Using State-Level Variation in Tax Changes

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is the most extensive overhaul of the U.S. income tax code since the Tax Reform Act of 1986.

January 03, 2020

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth remained on track in November. Payroll employment grew at a rapid clip, and unemployment stayed low.

January 03, 2020

The Austin economy continued to expand in November. Unemployment remained unchanged from the previous month, while job growth slowed somewhat in recent months.

January 03, 2020

San Antonio’s economy turned in a healthy performance in November. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand above its long-term average, and recent job growth was strong.

January 03, 2020

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

January 02, 2020

Growth in the Texas Service Sector Accelerates

The Texas economy continues to grow at a healthy pace. Job growth ticked up in November, and the October growth rate was revised up.

December 31, 2019

Texas Economy

The Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

December 31, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

The latest issue looks at gentrification in big Texas cities and the impact of the 2018 U.S. tax cut on Texas. It also features a Q&A with Paula Gold-Williams, CEO of San Antonio’s municipal utility, and a Spotlight on the rise of cybercrime at banks. The “Go Figure” infographic measures the economic cost of longer border wait times.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Gentrification Transforming Neighborhoods in Big Texas Cities

An influx of new, affluent residents has descended on gentrifying neighborhoods around Texas’ four largest cities, while increasing housing costs have led some low-income households and at-risk populations to locate in more suburban areas.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Texas Sees Job, Output Gains from 2018 U.S. Tax Cut

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 likely played an important role in Texas’ stronger subsequent job growth relative to the nation.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Spotlight: Banks Face Growing Cybercrime Threat

Cybercrime is on the rise in the Eleventh District according to FBI data.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Rising Demand, Renewables Generate New Challenges for Electric Utilities

Paula Gold-Williams, president and CEO of CPS Energy, offers her perspective on the electricity market in Texas.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

President's Perspective

President Kaplan shares recent thoughts on interest Rates and global government debt, the U.S. economy, and recent trade developments.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Go Figure: Assessing the Cost of Longer Border Wait Times

Wait times spiked in spring 2019 when Customs and Border Patrol resources were diverted away from border crossings.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Snapshot: Energy Sector Sees More Weakness

Softening oil prices and price expectations, negative stock market returns and tightening credit conditions are putting downward pressure on energy industry activity and employment.

December 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

December 30, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Activity in the oil and gas sector dipped again in fourth quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

December 27, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018).

December 20, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?

This paper studies the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR.

December 20, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, November 2019

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 1.9 percent in November after increasing an annualized 2.9 percent in October.

December 20, 2019

Dallas Faces a Gaping Digital Divide When It Comes to Economic Inclusion

In the city of Dallas, about 42 percent of households lack a fixed connection to the internet. What does this mean for our neighbors’ economic future? How can we close the digital divide?

December 20, 2019

Texas Economy

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Incorporating November job growth of 4.0 percent and a pickup in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.9 percent this year.

December 20, 2019

U.S. Economy

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in November was 2.0 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 1.5 percent on a 12-month basis and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.6 percent on a 12-month basis.

December 20, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Rationally Inattentive Savers and Monetary Policy Changes: A Laboratory Experiment

This paper presents a model where rationally inattentive agents decide how much to save while imperfectly tracking interest rate changes.

December 19, 2019

Texas Economy Picks Up in October; Data Revisions Show Weaker 2019 Growth

The Permian Basin rig count continued to contract in November, while oil prices ticked up in December.

December 19, 2019

Texas job growth picked up in October, although the energy sector continued to slip and manufacturing activity weakened.

December 19, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s Third-Quarter Output Revised Down

Preliminary revision to Mexico’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth suggested an increase of 0.1 percent annualized, down from the initial estimate of 0.4 percent.

December 18, 2019

Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market

In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.

December 17, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting interest rate expectations and show its importance to understand the transmission mechanism of forward guidance announcements.

December 16, 2019

Global Perspectives: Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Economic Projections, Deficits and Climate Change

Oil prices ticked up in November, receiving some additional support from OPEC-plus countries in early December when they announced lower crude oil production targets for 2020.

December 13, 2019

Holtz-Eakin and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Holtz-Eakin’s career as an economist, the economy, deficits and climate change.

December 12, 2019

In Memoriam: Paul A. Volcker

We are saddened by the passing of former Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chair and New York Fed President, Paul A. Volcker, who helped shape American economic policy for more than six decades.

December 09, 2019

The Austin economy continued to expand in September. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded near its long-term growth average.

December 05, 2019

Global Perspectives: Tom Luce on Public Service, Education Reform

Benchmark revisions to second-quarter employment data revealed much weaker job growth in Houston than earlier estimates had suggested.

December 04, 2019

Luce and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed his career in law and public service, his decision to become a lawyer and the key challenges facing the U.S. education system.

December 03, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter

This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analyzing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth.

November 29, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, October 2019

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 2.3 percent October, following negligible changes in each of the prior two months.

November 27, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, September 2019

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was effectively unchanged in September, declining at a negligible 0.1 percent annualized rate, following a similarly slight 0.3 percent annualized increase in August.

November 27, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Moderate expansion continued in the Eleventh District economy. Growth held fairly steady in services and retail but decelerated slightly in manufacturing. Home sales remained on the rise while energy activity continued to decline.

November 27, 2019

Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

Permian Basin total nonfarm employment contracted in October, while year-to-date payrolls remained flat. Unemployment held steady.

November 27, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

This paper proposes a novel identification strategy for disentangling the causal effects of traditional oil demand and oil supply shocks from the effects of exogenous variation in the U.S. real interest rate and in the real value of the U.S. dollar.

November 26, 2019

Texas Service Sector Expands at Slightly Slower Pace

El Paso economic growth remained mixed through October. Year to date, the metro added jobs at a 0.7 percent annualized rate.

November 26, 2019

Texas Economy

The Texas service sector continued to grow in November, though at a slightly slower rate, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

November 26, 2019

Hours Worked by Women Age 55 to 61 Confound Labor Market Analysis

The seemingly anomalous low LIUR of one particular demographic group poses a challenge for assessing the extent to which the U.S. economy is currently close to full employment.

November 26, 2019

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

New Mexico continues to post broad-based job gains, while the labor market is mixed in Las Cruces.

November 25, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity contracted slightly in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

November 25, 2019

Technology Choice and the Long- and Short-Run Armington Elasticity

San Antonio’s economy grew strongly in October. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded at its fastest rate in six years.

November 22, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper studies the international transmission of productivity shocks when the Armington elasticity is endogenized through firms' technology choice.

November 21, 2019

Banking Conditions Survey, November 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion slowed in October as payroll employment contracted after 17 straight months of growth.

November 21, 2019

The Eleventh District financial sector has continued to expand the past six weeks, according to survey respondents.

November 20, 2019

Women Veteran Business Owners: We Want to Hear From You

The Texas economy continues to expand moderately. While job growth decelerated in September, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in the labor market.

November 20, 2019

Women veteran-owned small businesses are an important part of our regional economy, but little is known about their needs and challenges.

November 20, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Generational War on Inflation: Optimal Inflation Rates for the Young and the Old

How does a grayer society affect the political decision-making regarding inflation rates? Is deflation preferred as a society ages?

November 19, 2019

Economic Policy Uncertainty Emerges as Drag on Stock Market

Over the past two years, virtually all of the downside pressure on stock prices has come from the elevated levels of such uncertainty.

November 19, 2019

Texas Economy

What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?

Incorporating October job growth of 2.5 percent and a slight increase in the October leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.1 percent this year.

November 15, 2019

This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

November 12, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

The Rising Value of Time and the Origin of Urban Gentrification

This paper estimates a spatial equilibrium model to show that the rising value of high-skilled workers’ time contributes to the gentrification of American central cities.

November 07, 2019

Consumer Credit Trends for Bexar County

The Austin economy continued to expand in September. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded near its long-term growth average.

November 07, 2019

Community Development Publications

This report uses a nationally representative loan-level dataset from Equifax to study consumer use and timely payment of four major loan types in Bexar County.

November 07, 2019

Texas Economy Still Growing, Though Pace Slows

The regional economy is growing at a slower pace than in recent months, with Texas labor markets remaining tight. Energy activity has declined, and export growth has slowed this year.

November 07, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s Economy Expands Marginally in Third Quarter

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized 0.4 percent pace in third quarter 2019. The consensus GDP growth forecast for 2019, compiled by Banco de México, held steady at 0.5 percent in September.

November 07, 2019

Consumer Surveys Suggest Economic Conditions Remain Healthy but Growth Is Slowing

Softening oil prices and price expectations, negative stock market returns and tightening credit conditions are putting downward pressure on industry activity and employment.

November 05, 2019

The current divergence between two prominent consumer confidence indexes suggests that policymakers need to be mindful of a U.S. economy in transition.

November 05, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Embedded Supervision: How to Build Regulation into Blockchain Finance

The spread of distributed ledger technology (DLT) in finance could help to improve the efficiency and quality of supervision. This paper makes the case for embedded supervision.

November 04, 2019

Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens

Leading economic indicators, the business-cycle index, mixed employment outcomes and housing markets are, on balance, pointing to tepid or average regional growth in the second half of 2019.

October 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Growth in the Texas service sector continued to increase in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

October 29, 2019

Global Perspectives: Glenn Hubbard on Immigration, Economic Dynamism and Limits of Monetary Policy

Hubbard and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed his experiences working in the George W. Bush administration and immigration's impact on the workforce.

October 29, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

October 28, 2019

Moderate expansion continued in the El Paso economy, with job growth remaining mixed among sectors. Trade through the ports was down 7.3 percent in August from a year prior due to a decline in imports.

October 24, 2019

San Antonio’s economy expanded at a robust pace in September. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded at its fastest rate since 2016, and recent job growth surged despite tight labor markets.

October 24, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion moderated in September. Payroll gains came in below the metro’s long-term average rate after spiking in the summer.

October 24, 2019

The Texas economy continues to expand moderately. While job growth decelerated in September, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in the labor market.

October 21, 2019

Monopsony in Spatial Equilibrium

Oil production in the Permian Basin continues to reach new highs. However, the rig count and the number of drilled but uncompleted wells are contracting in the region.

October 21, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Building on the Rosen/Roback spatial equilibrium model, we investigate how the existence of local monopsony power affects the cross-sectional spatial distribution of wages and rents across cities.

October 18, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness

Using panel data for 95 countries, this study revisits the resource curse paradox in terms of oil resource abundance for the period 1980–2017.

October 18, 2019

Texas Economy

Failed Background Check, Drug Testing Stall Hiring of Low-Skilled Workers

Incorporating September job growth of 0.7 percent and a decrease in the September leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.1 percent this year.

October 18, 2019

Many companies seek to add employees as the state economy continues expanding at an above-average pace. But not all can find the workers they need.

October 17, 2019

Globalization Institute

Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Credit Frictions and Uncertainty

We examine the interaction of uncertainty and credit frictions in a New Keynesian framework. We find that poor credit conditions mostly driven by financial uncertainty induce significant nonlinearities in the transmission mechanism of U.S. monetary policy and that monetary policy uncertainty contributes as much as 40% to U.S. business cycle volatility.

October 16, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Making Sense of Increased Synchronization in Global House Prices

Evidence indicates that house prices have become somewhat more synchronized during this century, likely reflecting more correlated movements in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles that are related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification.

October 16, 2019

Banking Conditions Survey, October 2019

The Eleventh District financial sector has shown some signs of stronger growth over the past six weeks, according to survey respondents.

October 16, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Labor Market Slack Disappeared by 2016

Economic activity continued to expand moderately. Energy activity declined, but growth remained solid in manufacturing and services. Home sales increased and loan demand accelerated.

October 16, 2019

This is the second of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

October 15, 2019

Community Development Publications

Opportunity Youth in Texas

While many adverse situations contribute to a young adult becoming disconnected from school and the workforce, researchers coined the phrase “opportunity youth” to emphasize their potential economic and social contributions.

October 11, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Economic Outlook Revised Down Further as Growth Disappoints

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.5 percent in the first half of the year, its weakest growth in six years.

October 11, 2019

Economic Conditions and the Key Structural Drivers Impacting the Economic Outlook

Oil prices are on the downtrend again after a brief surge caused by recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. Employment in the oil and gas sector is falling with the rig count. For the first time on record, the U.S. did not import any oil from Venezuela.

October 11, 2019

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, key structural drivers critical to the prospects for economic growth in the U.S. and the stance of U.S. monetary policy.

October 10, 2019

Community Development Publications

Consumer Credit Trends for Texas

This report presents an analysis of current county- and ZIP code-level credit conditions for Texas—data not readily available from other sources. In this report, the mortgage market is stable, but late payments rise for auto and student debt.

October 08, 2019

A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment

The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”

October 08, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Drilling Down: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Housing Prices

This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on house prices in the largest urban centers in Texas.

October 04, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model

The Kilian and Murphy (2014) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model.

October 04, 2019

Don’t Expect U.S. Shale Producers to Respond Quickly to Geopolitical Disruption

The Austin economy posted a strong performance in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded at a solid pace, and most job sectors experienced payroll gains, although health and private education services continued to decline.

October 04, 2019

Higher oil prices due to supply disruptions and increased geopolitical risk are unlikely to generate significantly more U.S. oil production in the short term.

October 03, 2019

The Houston economy continued to hum along in August, but there are signs of slowing ahead.

October 02, 2019

The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

As activity in the oil and gas sector has decelerated, both job growth and home sales have cooled.

October 02, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks.

October 01, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Growth Improves

Activity in the Texas service sector accelerated in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

October 01, 2019

Crude Oil Price Changes Quicker to Register at Gasoline Pump

How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.

October 01, 2019

Research Publications

Southwest Economy

The latest issue looks at auto loan debt, carbon emissions and renewable energy and education spending. It also includes a Spotlight on wind and solar power, a Q&A with atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe and an infographic on Mexico's slow adoption of digital payments.

September 30, 2019

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

September 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

September 30, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion remains on track. Payroll employment rose slightly faster than its long-term average rate in August, and unemployment stayed low.

September 27, 2019

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2019

The El Paso Business-Cycle Index signaled expansion in the metro. Total nonfarm jobs increased in August, housing sales continued to weaken and trade volumes were down.

September 27, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was close to unchanged in August, rising at a scant 0.4 percent annualized rate, following a 2.9 percent annualized increase in July.

September 27, 2019

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2019

Texans Help Drive National Increase in Auto Loan Debt

Despite strong economic growth in recent years, Texas auto loan delinquency rates have risen to levels unseen since just after the Great Recession.

September 27, 2019

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

Snapshot: Domestic Migration to Texas Slows

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 27, 2019

Texas Economy Keeps Growing Despite More Pessimistic Outlook

Growth in the San Antonio economy accelerated in August. Labor markets remained near historical levels of tightness, and wage growth trended upward.

September 26, 2019

The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth.

September 26, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Activity in the oil and gas sector declined in third quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

September 25, 2019

Oil and Gas Sector Increasingly Influences U.S. Business Fixed Investment

The Texas economy continues to expand. While job growth decelerated in August, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets.

September 24, 2019

As U.S. oil production has more than doubled over the past decade, the oil and gas sector has become more important to growth in non-residential investment.

September 24, 2019

Texas Economy

Global Perspectives: Ruth J. Simmons on Trailblazing and Education

Incorporating August job growth of 1.8 percent, a downward benchmark revision to first quarter job growth and a slight decrease in the August leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year.

September 20, 2019

Simmons and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her decision to become an educator, her experience in academia and the importance of educational opportunity.

September 17, 2019

The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions

Oil prices eroded in August but rose sharply in mid-September due to an outage in Saudi Arabia. Total mining employment in Texas continues to weaken.

September 16, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

In this paper, we establish the uniform asymptotic validity of conventional asymptotic and bootstrap inference about individual impulse responses and vectors of impulse responses when the horizon is fixed with respect to the sample size.

September 06, 2019

Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

The Austin economy posted a solid performance in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index has increased strongly in recent months due to rapid job growth and a lower unemployment rate.

September 06, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

The focus of this paper is not only on correcting important misunderstandings in the recent literature on oil market models, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers.

September 05, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Banking Conditions Survey, September 2019

Moderate expansion continued in the Eleventh District economy. Output growth in manufacturing strengthened, and expansion in the service sector was strong in July but eased in August.

September 04, 2019

The Eleventh District financial sector has shown some signs of slower growth over the past six weeks, according to survey respondents.

September 04, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation

Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers. Against this background, we provide empirical evidence of the relevance of dominant-currency pricing.

September 03, 2019

Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 03, 2019

Community Development Publication

Small Business Credit Survey

Drawing on a national survey of small business owners, this report examines financial conditions and credit needs of employer firms in Texas.

August 30, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2019

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in July following a 1.4 percent annualized increase in June.

August 30, 2019

The El Paso economy softened in July. Employment slumped, and year-over-year housing sales and trade volumes weakened.

August 29, 2019

Texas Service Sector Growth Softens

Job growth estimates remain healthy despite a recent downward revision.Manufacturing output has weakened in recent months and jobs in that sector are declining.

August 28, 2019

Texas Economy

Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a weaker pace in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

August 27, 2019

Solving a Puzzle: More Nonrenewable Resources Without Higher Prices

Economic intuition suggests nonrenewable resources such as metals or fossil fuels become scarcer and more expensive over time. However, a new dataset covering the years 1700 to 2018 indicates otherwise.

August 27, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Non-Renewable Resources, Extraction Technology and Endogenous Growth

We document that global resource extraction has strongly increased with economic growth, while prices have exhibited stable trends for almost all major non-renewable resources from 1700 to 2018.

August 26, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster clip in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

August 26, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in July. Payroll employment grew at a rapid clip, and unemployment stayed low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

August 26, 2019

The San Antonio economy grew at a steady pace in July. Tight labor markets persisted, with unemployment rates low and labor force growth tepid.

August 23, 2019

Do Immigrants Threaten U.S. Public Safety?

Permian Basin total nonfarm employment picked up in July, but year-to-date payrolls remain flat.

August 23, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Opponents of immigration often claim that immigrants, particularly those who are unauthorized, are more likely than U.S. natives to commit crimes and that they pose a threat to public safety. There is little evidence to support these claims.

August 22, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Risk Management for Sovereign Debt Financing with Sustainability Conditions

We develop a model of debt sustainability analysis with optimal financing decisions in the presence of macroeconomic, financial and fiscal uncertainty.

August 22, 2019

GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom’s First 10 Years

The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains.

August 20, 2019

Texas’ economic performance remains solid. The state saw robust job growth in July, and the unemployment rate held steady at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets.

August 19, 2019

Texas Economy

Affordable Rental Housing in Rural Texas

Incorporating July job growth of 3.4 percent and a slight increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.6 percent this year.

August 16, 2019

Community Development Publication

Explore shifts in the housing market and factors that have increased rental-cost burdens across Texas and the country.

August 15, 2019

In Uncertain Times, Fed Sometimes Turns to ‘Insurance’

In June 2019, a concept appeared in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes that had not shown up in FOMC minutes for 11 years—the idea of monetary policy “insurance.”

August 13, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Growth Picks Up Slightly in Second Quarter

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.4 percent in the second quarter after contracting 0.7 percent in the first quarter.

August 12, 2019

Services, Construction Lead Texas as Manufacturing, Energy Soften

Sluggish growth in manufacturing is attributable to softening demand for durables, which appears tied to a slowing energy sector.

August 08, 2019

Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions

Oil prices were mostly flat in July despite rising geopolitical tensions with Iran. West Texas natural gas prices averaged above zero as limited takeaway capacity continues to pressure pricing. Mining employment has leveled off.

August 07, 2019

With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy.

August 06, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2019

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 1.5 percent annualized rate in June, similar to its increase in May.

August 02, 2019

The Austin economy posted strong performance in June. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though labor force growth remained tepid.

August 01, 2019

Texas Service Sector Growth Increases to 2019 High

Leading indicators for Houston have slowed in recent months, and building permits for new single-family housing have continued to slide.

July 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

July 30, 2019

The El Paso economy remained healthy in June. The business-cycle index expanded, and year-to-date employment growth is above average.

July 29, 2019

Texas Economy

Takeaways from the Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference

Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

July 29, 2019

Highlights from the May 22-23 conference that focused on the implications of technology-enabled disruption for the economy—for firms, workers, governments and monetary policymakers.

July 25, 2019

The San Antonio economy expanded moderately in June. The unemployment rate rose slightly, and the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew marginally above its long-term trend.

July 25, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in June. Payroll employment in the second quarter expanded at its fastest rate in over two years. Unemployment remains low, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

July 24, 2019

Texas’ economic expansion continues to advance. The state posted robust job growth in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to a new record low, indicating further tightening in labor markets.

July 23, 2019

Structural Change and Global Trade

Permian Basin total nonfarm employment rose in June, partly due to an increase in the mining, logging and construction sector

July 22, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 58 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 79 percent in 2015. In a trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences and input-output linkages, we find that such structural change has restrained the growth of world trade to GDP by 15 percentage points over this period.

July 19, 2019

Texas Economy

Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data

Incorporating June job growth of 3.9 percent and a slight increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.5 percent this year.

July 19, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

The estimated model shows new empirical evidence that technology news shocks are a major source of fluctuations in U.S. output growth.

July 19, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables.

July 18, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations

We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market.

July 18, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Time-Varying Money Demand and Real Balance Effects

Economic activity expanded moderately. Retail sales and drilling activity dipped, but growth picked up in nonfinancial services and manufacturing in June after softening in May.

July 17, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics.

July 16, 2019

As Wages Rise, Are Black Workers Seeing the Smallest Gains?

A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise.

July 16, 2019

Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds

Oil prices dipped from May to June. Drilling activity also softened, particularly for shallower wells. However, mining employment accelerated the past few months ahead of a surge in pipeline capacity and in spite of worsening company outlooks.

July 12, 2019

Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

July 11, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Economic Outlook Weakens

Preliminary revision to Mexico’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth suggested a decline of 0.7 percent annualized, up from the initial estimate of a -0.8 percent.

July 10, 2019

Trade Relationships Affect U.S. Dollar Appreciation’s Impact Across States

The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies has appreciated, making most goods produced in the U.S. more expensive overseas during the past year.

July 09, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets

We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of eight U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and April 2018.

July 03, 2019

The Austin economy remained healthy in May. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend.

July 03, 2019

Houston business-cycle and leading indexes pointed to a growing economy in May. Employment, particularly mining-related jobs, accelerated, but the U.S. rig count and oil prices have fallen in recent months.

July 03, 2019

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

July 01, 2019

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2019

The El Paso economy continues to expand. The labor market is healthy, with job growth above the long-term average. Existing-home sales are strong, and the median home price has begun to pick up.

June 28, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in May following a 3.9 percent annualized increase in April.

June 28, 2019

A Brief Discussion Regarding the Impact of Climate Change on Economic Conditions in the Eleventh District

One factor being increasingly discussed at the Dallas Fed is the impact of climate change on the Eleventh District, says Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan. In particular, severe weather events can have a substantial human and economic cost to the district.

June 27, 2019

Trade Tensions Cloud Outlook as Texas Experiences Moderate Growth

The San Antonio economy expanded temperately in May. The unemployment rate ticked down further, while the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated to a pace close to its long-term trend.

June 27, 2019

The region’s moderate expansion continues, despite a weakening outlook. Job gains were solid in May, with most industries and major metros adding to payrolls, and labor markets remaining historically tight.

June 27, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in May. Payroll employment rose, and unemployment remained at a 20-year low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

June 26, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Activity in the oil and gas sector was flat in second quarter 2019 after three years of growth, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

June 26, 2019

Texas Service Sector Growth Strengthens

Texas economic indicators pointed to continued moderate expansion in May. The state posted solid job growth and record-low unemployment, indicating that labor markets remain tight.

June 25, 2019

Texas Economy

Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

June 25, 2019

Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking

Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making.

June 25, 2019

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

Economic Conditions and the Stance of Monetary Policy

President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, business activity in the Eleventh District, the appropriate stance of U.S. monetary policy and how the implications of climate change are impacting Dallas Fed economic analysis.

June 24, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

June 24, 2019

Job growth has softened in the Permian Basin as drilling activity has slowed. The rig count has fallen, while oil output continues to rise.

June 21, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas Facing Historically Tight Labor Markets, Constraining Growth

Incorporating May job growth of 2.1 percent and a moderate decrease in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year.

June 21, 2019

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

Labor force expansion, once fueled by migration, has eased, and businesses report that they cannot find sufficient numbers of workers to expand—particularly for middle-skill positions.

June 21, 2019

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

Snapshot: Shale Breakevens Anchor Oil Prices

The emergence of U.S. shale production seems to be playing a large role in anchoring long-term oil prices.

June 21, 2019

In line with an eroding rig count, employment in support activities for mining fell in April. Oil prices slipped recently amid rising U.S. inventories and signs that global demand growth may slow.

June 12, 2019