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Dallas Fed Recent Additions

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  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating September employment growth of 1.7 percent and moderate growth in the Texas Leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.7 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.2 percent.

    October 19, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Slow Post-Financial Crisis Recovery and Monetary Policy

    Post-financial crisis recoveries tend to be slow and be accompanied by slowdowns in TFP and permanent losses in GDP. To prevent them, how should monetary policy be conducted?

    October 19, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies: Policy Proposals

    This paper traces the evolution of fiscal institutions of Resource-Rich Arab Economies over time since their pre-oil days, through the discovery of oil to their build-up of oil exports.

    October 18, 2018

  • Community Development Publication

    Opportunity Zones in Texas: Promise and Peril

    This article explores the implications of a new tax incentive program to spur investment in low-income communities.

    October 17, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Global Trends in Interest Rates

    The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades.

    October 16, 2018

  • U.S. Economic Data

    Market Value of U.S. Government Debt

    For many uses, market value more accurately represents the debt burden faced by the U.S. government than the par value. The par value of government debt, which is reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, reflects interest rates at the time the debt was issued while the market value is adjusted to reflect market interest rates as of the observed period.

    October 15, 2018

  • International Economic Data

    International House Price Database

    The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

    October 11, 2018

  • Energy Indicators

    Signals have been recently mixed for the oil and gas industry. Pipeline limitations continue to take center stage, slowing production growth. Mining employment growth decelerated over the summer.

    October 05, 2018

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    Austin economic growth was moderate in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index stabilized but was below its long-term trend. Job growth rebounded after a sharp drop in July, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly.

    October 04, 2018

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico's 2018 Growth Outlook Revised Down Slightly

    Mexico’s consensus growth forecast for 2018 worsened slightly from 2.3 percent in July to 2.1 percent in August. The 2019 forecast held steady at 2.2 percent.

    October 04, 2018

  • Texas Economic Update

    Texas Economy Keeps Growing but Signs of Supply-Side Constraints Emerge

    The regional economy continues to post strong growth and outpace the nation. Year to date, Texas employment growth is an annualized 3 percent, well above the U.S. growth of 1.7 percent.

    October 03, 2018

  • U.S. Economic Update

    U.S. Economy Expected to Remain Strong Through Year-End

    The U.S. economy continued to expand at a brisk pace in the third quarter, based on recent data releases.

    October 03, 2018

  • International Economic Update

    Emerging-Market Currencies Suffer as Advanced Economies Tighten Policy

    The global economy is faced with heightened economic uncertainty due to trade-related concerns and tightening monetary policy in advanced economies adversely affecting emerging economies.

    October 03, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Explosive Dynamics in House Prices? An Exploration of Financial Market Spillovers in Housing Markets Around the World

    We investigate the emergence of explosiveness in the dynamics of real house prices and the role played by asset market spillovers.

    October 02, 2018

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    Growth in El Paso remains broad based. Year to date, the metro has added jobs at a 2.0 percent annualized rate, above its long-run average of 1.5 percent. Home sales are at an all-time high, while home-price appreciation is moderate.

    October 01, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Current Account Adjustment and Retained Earnings

    This paper develops a formal strategy to calculate current accounts with retained earnings on equity investment and analyzes their adjustment during the global financial crisis.

    October 01, 2018

  • Regional Economy

    Agricultural Survey

    Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey noted some easing of drought conditions across several regions of the Eleventh District.

    October 01, 2018

  • Surveys

    Dallas Fed Energy Survey

    Energy sector activity maintained its strong momentum in third quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

    October 01, 2018

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2018

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.3 percent at an annualized rate in August, following a 1.6 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

    September 28, 2018

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Houston's economy continues to grow at a healthy pace despite signs of a slowdown in its core energy-related sectors. Employment and business-cycle indicators are increasing, and loan growth at Houston-based banks continues to outperform the nation. Overall, the outlook remains positive.

    September 28, 2018

  • U.S. Economy

    Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in August was 2.0 percent.

    September 28, 2018

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in August. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated, holding below its long-term average.

    September 27, 2018

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Growth in Dallas–Fort Worth remained broad based and brisk, with the metro area adding jobs at a 3.0 percent annualized rate—well above its long-run average.

    September 25, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates

    Texas service sector activity accelerated in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    September 25, 2018

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    Texas’ economic expansion accelerated in August after moderating in July. Employment growth strengthened and was widespread across sectors and industries. The Texas Leading Index dipped but remained elevated, and energy sector indicators were mostly flat. Exports rose in July, and the volume of loans held by Texas banks expanded in the second quarter.

    September 24, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    September 24, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating August employment growth of 4.6 percent, a revision in first-quarter job growth due to early benchmarking, and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.8 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 3.3 percent.

    September 21, 2018

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Overall, economic indicators show a robust Permian Basin economy with expanding employment and a tight labor market. Though oil production continues to rise, drilling activity has leveled off somewhat amid concerns over pipeline capacity.

    September 21, 2018

  • Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2018

    New Technology Boosts Texas Firms' Output, Alters Worker Mix

    A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of manufacturing and services firms in Texas found that as companies adopt new technologies, the number of workers is little changed though the employees’ skill levels shift.

    September 21, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

    This paper quantifies the drivers of euro area and U.S. economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated three-region DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities.

    September 12, 2018

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Economic activity expanded at a solid pace. Manufacturing and service sectors sustained a healthy pace of growth, while activity in the housing and energy sectors was flat to down. Retail spending accelerated, as did loan demand.

    September 12, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

    We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market.

    September 11, 2018

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    Austin economic growth weakened in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index performed well below its long-term trend. The unemployment rate dipped and job growth softened, but wages inched up.

    September 07, 2018

  • Energy Indicators

    Pipeline limitations are driving down local prices for oil and natural gas, causing drilling activity to flatten and the inventory of uncompleted wells to rise in the Permian Basin. Texas mining employment growth also slowed in July.

    September 06, 2018

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2018

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.5 percent at an annualized rate in July, following a 1.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

    August 30, 2018

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Softer employment growth in July slowed the business-cycle index to a more modest above-trend growth rate. Revisions to employment data dulled Houston’s stellar job growth in the six months following Hurricane Harvey.

    August 29, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Finite-Order VAR Representation of Linear Rational Expectations Models: With Some Lessons for Monetary Policy

    This paper considers the characterization via finite-order VARs of the solution of a large class of linear rational expectations (LRE) models.

    August 29, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

    This paper isolates the relative importance of global, national and region-specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual U.S. states and metro areas.

    August 28, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand

    Texas service sector activity continued to increase in August, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    August 28, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity maintained its strong momentum in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    August 27, 2018

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in July. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though it remains below its long-term average.

    August 23, 2018

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Employment and the rig count growth have slowed over the last three months in the Permian Basin but overall, economic indicators show a robust economy.

    August 22, 2018

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    A strong labor market is boosting the El Paso economy. Year-to-date jobs gains have been broad based, and trade through the El Paso port of entry is up. Housing affordability remains above average.

    August 22, 2018

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Economic expansion in Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) remained broad based and swift, with the July jobs report showing the metro area growing at a 3.0 percent annualized rate—well above its long-run average.

    August 21, 2018

  • Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

    Employment levels inched up in Las Cruces in the second quarter, while the state posted much stronger growth. Trade through the port is rising, and the rig count is well above year-ago levels.

    August 21, 2018

  • Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

    Where We Stand: Assessment of Economic Conditions and Implications for Monetary Policy

    The purpose of this essay is to discuss economic conditions in the Eleventh District and the U.S. It discusses the implications of this assessment for the stance of monetary policy in the U.S.

    August 21, 2018

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    Texas’ economic expansion moderated in July. Employment growth softened, and growth in the Texas Business-Cycle Index slowed. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated a pickup in growth and continued optimism but also rising uncertainty.

    August 20, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating July employment growth of 1.3 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.7 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.3 percent.

    August 17, 2018

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico Posts Negative Growth in Second Quarter but Outlook Stable

    Mexico’s economy contracted an annualized 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the consensus growth forecast for 2018 held steady in June at 2.3 percent.

    August 15, 2018

  • Community Development Publication

    Weathering the Storm: A Framework for Meeting CRA Obligations

    This report provides a brief overview of disaster recovery and its connection to the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA).

    August 14, 2018

  • Texas Economic Update

    Red-Hot Texas Economic Growth Likely to Cool

    The regional economy is about as hot as the Texas summer. Texas job growth was a blistering 3.6 percent (annualized) in the first half of 2018.

    August 10, 2018

  • Research Publications

    Does Medicaid Generosity Affect Household Income?

    Using a Regression Kink Design (RKD) framework, this paper takes a uniquely different approach to the identification of the effect of Medicaid generosity on household income.

    August 09, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

    This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.

    August 08, 2018

  • U.S. Economic Update

    U.S. Economy Appears Well-Positioned for Second Half

    The U.S. economy entered its 10th year of economic expansion last month, and recent data point to continued economic growth for the second half of the year.

    August 07, 2018

  • International Economic Update

    Global Growth Continues but with Higher Uncertainty

    First-quarter GDP growth has been disappointing in a number of economies, and growth appears to be less synchronous than anticipated earlier in the year.

    August 07, 2018

  • Globalization Institute

    Detecting Periods of Exuberance: A Look at the Role of Aggregation with an Application to House Prices

    In this paper, we examine through simulation experiments the effect of cross-sectional aggregation on the power properties of SADF and GSADF unit root tests.

    August 03, 2018

  • Energy Indicators

    Recent indicators have been mixed but continue to paint a positive overall picture for the industry. Drilling, well permit applications and production numbers have all plateaued in recent weeks.

    August 03, 2018

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2018

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.2 percent at an annualized rate in June, following a 2.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

    August 03, 2018

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    The Austin economy continued to expand at a solid pace in June. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew near its long-term trend. Although labor markets remained constrained, the metro posted solid employment growth.

    August 02, 2018

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    The professional services sector continues to lead a broad-based acceleration in the Houston economy this year amid strong growth in the local labor force. Construction employment is surging as the existing-home market remains tight.

    July 31, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Market: A Tale of Three Generations

    While relatively low education levels do not appear to hamper Hispanic immigrants’ employment, they play a key role in explaining low levels of employment among Hispanic immigrants’ descendants.

    July 31, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates

    Texas service sector activity accelerated in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    July 31, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    The robust expansion in Texas factory activity continued in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    July 30, 2018

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    The El Paso economy continues to expand as the labor market continues to add jobs and home sales reach record levels. Trade through the El Paso port of entry rose, while maquiladora employment remained steady.

    July 27, 2018

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in June. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though below its long-term average, as the unemployment rate held at a low level and job growth remained tepid.

    July 26, 2018

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Employment growth picked up in the second quarter, and unemployment remains near historic lows. The rig count has stalled, but production continues to grow.

    July 26, 2018

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continues to expand. The June jobs report indicated employment growth moderated, with DFW adding jobs at the slowest pace so far this year.

    July 24, 2018

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    The Texas economy continued to expand at a solid pace in June. There were strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated continued growth in the state’s manufacturing and service-providing sectors.

    July 24, 2018

  • Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

    A look at partnerships that advance workforce and economic competitiveness in five separate regions.

    July 23, 2018

  • Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

    West Central Texas Region: Manufacturing Partnership

    Partnerships launch when industry leaders in one geographic region (such as West Central Texas) come together to identify their biggest shared opportunities for growth, then prioritize the most important requirements to capitalize on those opportunities.

    July 21, 2018

  • Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

    Northeast Louisiana: Health Care Partnership

    The health care sector is prominently featured in the region's workforce development plan. This sector also matters to economic development simply because of the number of quality jobs it provides.

    July 21, 2018

  • Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

    Lane County, Oregon: Technology Partnership

    Lane Workforce Partnership (LWP) is Lane County’s local workforce development board, a nonprofit organization.

    July 21, 2018

  • Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

    East Bay, California: Manufacturing and Transportation & Logistics Partnerships

    Partnerships launch when industry leaders in one geographic region (such as the East Bay of California) come together to identify their biggest shared opportunities for growth, then prioritize the most important requirements to capitalize on those opportunities.

    July 21, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Valuation Risk Revalued

    The recent asset pricing literature finds valuation risk is an important determinant of key asset pricing moments. After correcting the preference specification, we find long-run risk, rather than valuation risk, plays the biggest role in explaining asset prices.

    July 20, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating June employment growth of 2.8 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.0 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.8 percent.

    July 20, 2018

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Economic activity continued to grow at a solid pace. Manufacturing output rose, and broad-based expansion in the services and energy sectors continued. Retail spending rose while drought conditions became more widespread.

    July 18, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

    This paper describes the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS)’s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS and TROS indexes with regard to Texas employment growth.

    July 17, 2018

  • Energy Indicators

    Drilling activity continues to expand in Texas as prices continue to be favorable. OPEC recently indicated it would increase production, but falling inventories, unplanned outages and limited spare OPEC capacity left the price reaction mixed.

    July 05, 2018

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    Austin economic activity held steady in May. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow near trend. Job growth accelerated after softening in March and April, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest rate since the beginning of the year.

    July 05, 2018

  • Regional Economy

    Agricultural Survey

    Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey noted continuing drought conditions across many regions of the Eleventh District.

    July 02, 2018

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico’s First-Quarter Output Revised Up, but Growth Stalls in April

    Mexico’s economy grew slightly faster in first quarter 2018 than previously estimated. First-quarter gross domestic product was revised to 4.6 percent, up from the prior estimate of 4.5 percent.

    June 29, 2018

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2018

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.6 percent at an annualized rate in May, following a 2.9 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

    June 29, 2018

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    The El Paso economy continues to expand. The labor market keeps growing, and homes sales reached near-record levels in May. Trade through the El Paso Port of Entry rose, while maquiladora employment remained steady.

    June 28, 2018

  • Surveys

    Dallas Fed Energy Survey

    Energy sector activity expanded strongly in second quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

    June 27, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand

    Texas service sector activity continued to increase in June, although at a slightly slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    June 26, 2018

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Professional services and manufacturing are leading growth in the Houston economy. The energy sector is expanding at an accelerated pace, leading to strong export growth. Lending at local banks has been outpacing the state and the nation. Healthy gains in the Houston Leading Index and the Houston Business-Cycle Index suggest a continued positive outlook.

    June 25, 2018

  • Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2018

    Harvey Highlights Houston MUD Bond Development Funding

    Historic flooding from Hurricane Harvey struck many Houston housing developments whose infrastructure was funded with municipal utility district (MUD) bonds.

    June 25, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    The expansion in Texas factory activity continued in June, albeit at a slower pace than in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    June 25, 2018

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    Growth in the San Antonio economy held steady in May. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though below its long-term average, as the unemployment rate fell but job growth remained tepid.

    June 21, 2018

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    The Permian Basin economy continued its rapid expansion in May. Employment surpassed its prebust peak as unemployment fell to a record low.

    June 20, 2018

  • U.S. Economic Update

    U.S. Economic Picture Unchanged in Second Quarter 2018

    Economic data released since March point to continued growth in economic activity due to robust consumer spending, strong employment growth and diminishing labor market slack.

    June 19, 2018

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand at a torrid pace. The May jobs report showed the metro area growing at a 3.7 percent annualized rate in the first five months of the year, adding a total of 55,500 net new jobs.

    June 19, 2018

  • Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

    Rio Grande Valley, Texas: Next Generation Sector Partnerships in Health Care and Information Technology

    Partnerships launch when industry leaders in one geographic region (such as the Rio Grande Valley, Texas) come together to identify their biggest, shared opportunities for growth, then prioritize the most important requirements to capitalize on those opportunities.

    June 19, 2018

  • Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

    A Perspective on Oil

    This essay lays out the key factors the Dallas Fed closely tracks in analyzing the global energy markets and in considering the impact of oil prices on economic conditions in the U.S.

    June 19, 2018

  • Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 8

    Smaller Banks Less Able to Withstand Flattening Yield Curve

    For the overall U.S. banking system, the effect on profitability of yield-curve flattening—the lowering of the difference between the yields of short- and long-term debt—lasts about a year and is relatively small.

    June 18, 2018

  • Texas Economic Update

    Texas Economy Continues to Advance

    The Texas economy is expanding at a solid pace. Employment has grown at a 3.6 percent annualized rate through May, driven by job gains in the goods-producing sector. Unemployment remains near its historical low, and labor markets are tight.

    June 18, 2018

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    The Texas economy continued to expand at a solid pace in May. The state posted strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The headline indexes of the Dallas Fed's Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated accelerating growth.

    June 18, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating May annualized employment growth of 3.2 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.3 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.4 to 4.2 percent.

    June 15, 2018

  • International Economic Update

    Downside Risks Imperil Prospective Gains from Globalization

    Downside risks to the global economy could diminish its recent steady performance. Threats include challenges to existing trade arrangements, instability in the euro area and possible global blow-back from Federal Reserve benchmark rate increases.

    June 15, 2018

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    Austin economic activity held steady in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow well above trend. Although job growth softened in April, the unemployment rate remained low. Wages continued to rise, aiding home affordability.

    June 08, 2018