Dallas Fed Recent Additions

The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

The Permian Basin economy remains robust in terms of employment, energy and housing. Employment expanded for the 18th month in a row during February.

April 19, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

This paper uses existing empirical estimates of the macroeconomic effects of tax changes to project the near term impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on US GDP growth.

April 18, 2018

Eleventh District Beige Book

The Texas oil and gas sector remained strong through March. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose slightly in March, staying close to $63 per barrel. Oil production in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford rose again. Texas oil and gas employment spiked up in February and is at its highest level since late 2015. U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports are at an all-time high and projected to increase further this year.

April 18, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Economic activity grew moderately, with a rebound in retail sales and an acceleration in financial and nonfinancial services activity. Robust expansion in the energy industry continued, while growth in manufacturing eased somewhat.

April 18, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

Taking the Long View: Creating a Better Future for Our Children and Grandchildren

Short-term cyclical developments are only part of the story in understanding the U.S. and global economies.

April 16, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 6

Declining U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates Stand Out

Male and female prime-age labor force participation rates have declined in the U.S. at a faster rate than in most developed countries over the past 20 years, even among people with a college degree.

April 12, 2018

U.S. Economic Data

Market Value of U.S. Government Debt

For many uses, market value more accurately represents the debt burden faced by the U.S. government than the par value. The par value of government debt, which is reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, reflects interest rates at the time the debt was issued while the market value is adjusted to reflect market interest rates as of the observed period. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas researchers calculated the market value of U.S. government debt series until October 2010.

April 12, 2018

Research Publications

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2018

The latest Southwest Economy examines the importance of migration for Texas’ growth, the 2018 Texas economic outlook, rising Texas home prices and the new federal tax law.

April 06, 2018

International Economic Data

International House Price Database

The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

April 06, 2018

Steeling the U.S. Economy for the Impacts of Tariffs

Austin economic activity accelerated in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew at its fastest pace since late 2015, bolstered by strong employment growth over the first two months of this year.

April 05, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 5

Proposed steel and aluminum tariffs would likely trim a quarter percent from the U.S. gross domestic product over the long run.

April 04, 2018

The outlook for Houston remains positive. Houston has had a robust start to 2018 job growth, broad measures of output have expanded, energy-related activity and related imports have continued to improve, and oil prices remain in a healthy range for the energy industry.

April 03, 2018

Texas Economic Expansion Continues; Tight Labor Market Could Limit Stronger Growth

Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Ciudad Juárez maquiladora employment is steady, while trade through the Port picked up, led by a strong gain in exports.

April 03, 2018

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey noted conditions remained dry across a number of regions.

April 02, 2018

Texas Economic Update

The Texas economy’s broad expansion continues. Year-to-date employment growth has been widespread across metros and industries.

March 30, 2018

Research Publications

Southwest Economy

The latest Southwest Economy examines the importance of migration for Texas’ growth, the 2018 Texas economic outlook, rising Texas home prices and the new federal tax law.

March 29, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, February 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.3 percent annualized rate in February. The price index for PCE excluding food and energy rose at a 2.8 percent annualized rate following a 3.5 percent annualized increase in January.

March 29, 2018

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2018

Gone to Texas: Migration Vital to Growth in the Lone Star State

Texas has relied on a large and sustained influx of workers from other states and other countries. Significantly, this inflow brought the types of workers most in demand.

March 29, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The San Antonio economy expanded at a steady pace in February. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew slightly above its long-term trend, although job growth was modest and the unemployment rate rose slightly.

March 29, 2018

U.S. Economy

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for February was an annualized 1.7 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for February was 2.3 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 2.8 percent.

March 29, 2018

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Energy sector activity strengthened further in first quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

March 28, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Fourth-Quarter Growth Revised Down; 2018 Outlook Still Healthy

Although fourth-quarter Mexico gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised lower, performance was still strong, and this bodes well for 2018.

March 28, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens

DFW economic growth continued in February, with payroll employment expanding and unemployment staying low.

March 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity picked up in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

March 27, 2018

Texas economic growth remained robust in February. The state posted strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The Texas Leading Index ticked down following several months of strong growth. Home inventories remained low, and home sales rose in the month, while indicators of residential construction were mixed.

March 26, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas Employment Forecast

Texas factory activity continued to expand in March, albeit at a markedly slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

March 26, 2018

Texas Economy

Incorporating an upwardly revised January job growth of 4.0 percent, February growth of 3.2 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.4 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 4.7 percent.

March 23, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Economic Outlook Improves in First Quarter

The economic outlook has slightly improved since January, owing to strong gross domestic product (GDP) and employment growth.

March 23, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 4

Global, National Business Cycles and Energy Explain Texas Metro Growth

A mix of global, national and state-specific shocks help drive employment fluctuations between U.S. states.

March 23, 2018

International Economic Update

Global Growth Little Changed Despite Heightened Policy Uncertainty

Global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth decreased from 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis in third quarter 2017 to 3.4 percent in fourth quarter 2017.

March 23, 2018

The Texas oil and gas sector continued to remain strong through February. While prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell slightly in February from a three-year high in January, estimated production in the Permian Basin reached 3 million barrels per day.

March 23, 2018

Midland and Odessa’s combined nonfarm employment increased to 172,200 during January, and unemployment continued to fall. Oil production grew to over 3 million barrels per day and the rig count continued to rise.

March 22, 2018

Estimating Taxable Income Responses with Elasticity Heterogeneity

Recent economic data remain positive for Houston. January employment growth was healthy, and job growth in 2017 was stronger than initially estimated.

March 21, 2018

Research Publications

This paper illustrates the empirical importance of elasticity heterogeneity by using the NBER tax panel for 1979-1990.

March 21, 2018

Community Development Publication

Seizing the Opportunity for Equitable and Inclusive Redevelopment: Galveston’s Trials After Hurricane Ike Offer Lessons for Other Communities

This report highlights lessons learned from continued recovery efforts in Galveston, Texas, following Hurricane Ike, which can inform communities currently rebuilding after recent natural disasters.

March 16, 2018

The San Antonio economy expanded at a steady pace in January. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew slightly above its long-term trend despite weak job growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate.

March 15, 2018

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth was moderate in January. Revised data indicate that DFW employment expanded 2.4 percent in 2017.

March 14, 2018

Texas Employment Forecast

Texas economic growth remained strong in January. The state posted solid job gains, and unemployment remained low. Texas employment increased at a solid pace in 2017 but slower than estimated prior to the benchmark revision.

March 13, 2018

Texas Economy

Incorporating January employment growth of 2.5 percent and leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.3 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.8 to 4.8 percent.

March 09, 2018

Research Working Papers

A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty

This paper develops a new way to quantify the effect of uncertainty and other higher-order moments.

March 08, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Eleventh District Beige Book

Economic activity grew moderately, with sectors like manufacturing and energy continuing their solid expansions while others cooled somewhat. Growth in nonfinancial services activity slowed slightly, as did loan growth, and retail sales fell modestly.

March 07, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 3

Rising Public Debt to GDP Can Harm Economic Growth

The debt–growth relationship is complex, varying across countries and affected by global factors.

March 06, 2018

Community Development Publications

Consumer Credit Trends for Dallas County

This report presents an analysis of current county- and ZIP code-level credit conditions for Dallas—data not readily available from other sources.

March 06, 2018

Austin economic growth remained robust in January. According to revised data, employment grew 4.2 percent in 2017, the fastest rate among Texas’ large metro areas.

March 02, 2018

Everyday Economics

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, the newest publication in the Everyday Economics series, provides an engaging look at the role and responsibilities of today’s central bank. Companion classroom-ready lesson also available.

March 02, 2018

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2018

El Paso’s robust labor market has placed pressure on average weekly wages. Home sales and single-family housing permits are expanding, although the median home price remains steady.

March 01, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 4.5 percent annualized rate in January. The price index for energy goods and services rose sharply for the month; food prices rose slightly.

March 01, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment

This paper uses a broad-range set of inflation models and pseudo out-of-sample forecasts to assess their predictive ability among 14 emerging market economies at different horizons.

March 01, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Increase

Texas service sector activity continued to reflect expansion in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

February 27, 2018

Texas Economy

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster pace in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

February 26, 2018

Despite a stagnant labor market, home sales in Las Cruces continue to rise. Trade through the Santa Teresa port is above year-ago levels, and rising oil prices continue to boost production.

February 22, 2018

Discussion of Economic Conditions and Key Challenges Facing the U.S. Economy

Wages in the Permian Basin fell for the second quarter in a row after spiking in first quarter 2017. The rig count, crude oil production and oil prices all rose in January.

February 22, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

In a new essay, Robert S. Kaplan provides a synopsis of his current views regarding economic conditions and U.S. monetary policy.

February 21, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Product Turnover and the Cost of Living Index: Quality vs. Fashion Effects

This paper evaluates the effects of product turnover on a welfare-based cost-of-living index. We first present some facts about price and quantity changes over the product cycle employing scanner data for Japan for the years 1988-2013, which cover the deflationary period that started in the mid-1990s.

February 21, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

OPEC in the News

This paper introduces a newspaper article count index related to OPEC that rises in response to important OPEC meetings and events connected with OPEC production levels.

February 21, 2018

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil went up in January to a three-year high. Permian Basin crude oil production continued to increase as the oil rig count continues to rise.

February 15, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Optimal monetary policy under discretion, commitment, and optimal simple rules regimes is analyzed through a behavioral New Keynesian model. Flexible price level targeting dominates under discretion; flexible inflation targeting dominates under commitment; and strict price level targeting dominates when using optimal simple rules.

February 14, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico Economic Growth Rebounds in Fourth Quarter

Mexico’s economic output recovered sharply in the fourth quarter, rising 4.1 percent after falling in the third quarter as a result of the September earthquakes.

February 09, 2018

International Economic Update

Global Growth Outlook Reflects Sustained Recovery

Global growth accelerated in 2017, supported by strengthening labor markets and external demand. Although inflation concerns among advanced countries abated, risks remain and are mostly tilted to the downside.

February 06, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Thriving Texas Economy Expands Broadly

The Texas economy continues its broad expansion. Texas employment growth accelerated in the fourth quarter and was strong across most metros and industries.

February 05, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

Data Point to Momentum in GDP Growth as Year Begins

U.S. economic growth slowed in fourth quarter 2017 following two strong quarters.

February 02, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, December 2017

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 1.3 percent annualized rate in December, as a sharp decline in gasoline prices weighed on the headline index.

February 02, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 2

Global Interfirm Network Reveals Centrality of U.S. and Financial Sector

While there is evidence of direct contagion passing between firms in the global interfirm network, there are also indications that connectedness plays a role in a reduced likelihood of firm distress and improved performance.

February 02, 2018

Research Publications

The Death of the Phillips Curve?

Are inflation dynamics well captured by Phillips Curve models, or has this framework become less relevant over time? The evidence for the U.S. suggests that the slopes of the price and wage Phillips Curves– the short-run inflation-unemployment trade-offs – are low and have got a little flatter.

February 02, 2018

Globalization Institute

Current Account Dynamics under Information Rigidity and Imperfect Capital Mobility

The current account in developed countries is highly persistent and volatile in comparison to output growth. The standard intertemporal current account model with rational expectations (RE) fails to account for the observed current account dynamics together with persistent changes in consumption.

February 02, 2018

Globalization Institute

Can Trend Inflation Solve the Delayed Overshooting Puzzle?

We develop an open economy New Keynesian model with heterogeneity in price stickiness and positive trend inflation. The main insight of our analysis is that, in the presence of heterogeneity in price stickiness, there is a strong link between trend inflation and the timing of the peak response of the real exchange rate to a monetary policy shock.

February 02, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Structural Change and Global Trade

Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 50 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 80 percent in 2015. Such structural change restrained “openness”—the ratio of world trade to world GDP—over this period. We quantify this with a general equilibrium trade model featuring non-homothetic preferences and input-output linkages.

February 02, 2018

Austin economic growth remained robust in December. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated as job growth remained above trend and the unemployment rate held at a very low level.

February 01, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand but at Slower Pace

Economic data were mostly positive for Houston in December. Employment grew, and business-cycle and leading indexes were indicative of healthy economic output and future growth. Construction and real estate metrics were mixed but pointed to a tighter housing market and increased construction ahead. Overall, the outlook for Houston remains positive.

January 30, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity continued to increase in January, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

January 30, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

January 29, 2018

The San Antonio economy expanded at a robust pace in December. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew at its fastest pace since early 2015.

January 26, 2018

El Paso economic activity continues to climb. Maquiladoras in Ciudad Juárez are still adding jobs, and trade through the El Paso port of entry is steady. Home sales in El Paso remain robust, near all-time highs.

January 26, 2018

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded modestly in December. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes continued to grow at year end, posting solid growth in 2017.

January 24, 2018

Texas Job Growth Swings More with Services than Oil

The Texas economy strengthened in 2017. Though Texas employment growth was slower than expected in December, the Texas Leading Index strengthened.

January 22, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 1

As the Texas economy diversified after the 1980s oil bust, the link between overall economic growth and the oil and gas sector weakened.

January 19, 2018

Employment in the Permian Basin increased slightly, while unemployment inched up. Production continued its strong trajectory as the rig count continued to tick up.

January 18, 2018

Eleventh District Beige Book

Indicators for the Texas oil and gas sector continued to improve in December. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose in December. Texas oil and gas employment expanded further in November, marking 10 consecutive months of increases.

January 18, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Economic activity grew robustly, a pickup in pace from the more moderate expansion seen throughout most of 2017. The manufacturing sector remained a bright spot, although growth accelerated in most other sectors as well.

January 17, 2018

News Releases

Dallas Fed Announces Executive Promotions

January 09, 2018

News Releases

Texas Economy ‘Firing on all Cylinders,’ says Dallas Fed Economist; State Projected to add 366,000 Jobs in 2018

Texas job growth is forecast to strengthen to 3 percent in 2018 from an estimated 2.5 percent in 2017, said Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas assistant vice president and senior economist Keith Phillips today in San Antonio.

January 09, 2018

Economic growth in Austin was robust in November. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated as jobs remained strong and the unemployment rate held at a very low level.

January 05, 2018

Demographics and the Evolution of Global Imbalances

Houston economic activity continued to improve in November. The Houston Business-Cycle Index ticked up, employment totals surpassed pre-hurricane levels, and mining-related employment increased.

January 04, 2018

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey noted conditions had turned dry again across a number of regions.

January 02, 2018

Globalization Institute

The working age share of the population has evolved, and will continue to evolve, asymmetrically across countries. This paper develops a dynamic, multicountry, Ricardian trade model with endogenous labor supply to quantify how these asymmetries systematically affect the pattern of trade imbalances across 28 countries from 1970 to 2014.

December 29, 2017

The San Antonio economy continued to grow at a steady pace in November. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded above trend as jobs grew and the area unemployment rate stayed at a very low level.

December 28, 2017

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Business activity gained momentum in the fourth quarter, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

December 28, 2017

Texas economic growth was robust in November. The state posted strong job gains, and the unemployment rate fell to a record low for the second month in a row.

December 27, 2017

Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Maquiladoras in Ciudad Juárez continue to add jobs, and trade through the port remains steady. Home sales in El Paso remain robust, near all-time highs.

December 27, 2017

Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens Further

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded at a rapid clip in November. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes continued to post above-trend gains, as job growth was strong.

December 27, 2017

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity increased again in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

December 27, 2017

Texas Economy

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, November 2017

Texas factory activity expanded strongly in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

December 26, 2017

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.8 percent annualized rate in November following a 1.8 percent increase in October.

December 22, 2017

Mexico Economic Update

Economic Outlook Stable Despite Weaker Third-Quarter Data

The consensus Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2018 remained at 2.3 percent despite a downward revision of third quarter 2017 growth. Forecasters are predicting a bounce back in activity in the fourth quarter.

December 22, 2017

Positive signs are continuing for the Texas oil and gas sector. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose in November. Texas oil and gas employment expanded further in October, marking nine consecutive months of increases.

December 21, 2017