Dallas Fed Recent Additions

COVID-19 and CRA: Fed Issues Guidance on Helping Communities Through the Crisis

Texas factory activity declined sharply in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

March 30, 2020

Surveys

Special Questions

For this month’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on the impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19).

March 30, 2020

To help support economic resiliency, we are providing Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) consideration for banking and lending activities in response to COVID-19.

March 27, 2020

Texas Economy

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, February 2020

Texas jobs grew 3.4 percent in February and 3.5 percent for the first two months of 2020, indicating a strong pace of growth prior to the economic shock caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19).

March 27, 2020

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 1.1 percent in February after increasing an annualized 1.7 percent in January.

March 27, 2020

U.S. Economy

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in February was 2.0 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 1.8 percent on a 12-month basis and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.8 percent on a 12-month basis.

March 27, 2020

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s Economy Contracts in 2019; Outlook Worsens

More recent private forecasts see Mexico’s economy shrinking by as much as 4.0 percent as concerns intensify over the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on global growth.

March 27, 2020

Globalization Institute Working Paper

An Augmented Anderson-Hsiao Estimator for Dynamic Short-T Panels

This paper introduces the idea of self-instrumenting endogenous regressors in settings when the correlation between these regressors and the errors can be derived and used to bias-correct the moment conditions.

March 26, 2020

Dallas Fed Energy Survey Results Point to Bleak Outlook for Oil Industry

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has plunged more than 50 percent since the start of the year as the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has taken hold and OPEC has failed to agree on global supply cuts.

March 26, 2020

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Activity in the oil and gas sector declined significantly in first quarter 2020, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

March 25, 2020

Ability to Repay a Mortgage: Assessing the Relationship Between Default, Debt-to-Income

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has announced that it intends to change the definition of a “qualified mortgage.” Specifically, the CFPB proposes to reconsider the use of a borrower's debt-to-income ratio as a measure of the ability to repay a loan.

March 24, 2020

Financial Statements

Examinations of the Reserve Bank

The combined financial statements of the Reserve Banks as well as the annual financial statements of each of the 12 Banks and the consolidated LLC entity are audited annually by an independent auditing firm retained by the Board of Governors.

March 23, 2020

The unemployment rate remained below the state and national averages, and recent job growth was steady. Housing affordability increased, while recent home sales activity weakened.

March 20, 2020

A Quantitative Evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund Program in China

This data show that the economy was strong prior to the sharply negative hit in March from the coronavirus.

March 19, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

This paper calibrates a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model to quantify the effects of the Housing Provident Fund (HPF), the largest public housing program in China.

March 19, 2020

Oil prices dropped sharply in early March. Oil production reached new highs in January, and the rig count edged up in February.

March 19, 2020

Understanding the Exposure at Default Risk of Commercial Real Estate Construction and Land Development Loans

Homebuilding activity soared in January, and housing market indicators point to moderate price appreciation and stable affordability in fourth quarter 2019.

March 18, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

This paper models the determinants of exposure at default (EAD) for large U.S. construction and land development loans from 2010 to 2017.

March 17, 2020

News Releases

FOMC Press Conference Call

Listen to audio from Chair Powell's March 15 FOMC press conference call.

March 15, 2020

U.S. Economic Data

Market Value of U.S. Government Debt

For many uses, market value more accurately represents the debt burden faced by the U.S. government than the par value. The par value of government debt, which is reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, reflects interest rates at the time the debt was issued while the market value is adjusted to reflect market interest rates as of the observed period.

March 11, 2020

Global Perspectives: William Dudley on the Financial Crisis, the New York Fed and Misconceptions about the Fed

Dudley and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed Dudley’s role during the financial crisis, his leadership of the New York Fed and popular misconceptions about the Fed.

March 10, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models

This paper explains how the workhorse models in the oil market literature have evolved, but also examines alternative oil market VAR models.

March 06, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

How Does Immigration Fit into the Future of the U.S. Labor Market?

U.S. GDP growth is anticipated to remain sluggish over the next decade, and slow labor force growth is a key underlying reason. Admitting more immigrants is one way U.S. policymakers can bolster growth in the workforce and the economy.

March 05, 2020

Dallas County Promise Puts Higher Education—and Higher Earning Potential—Within Students’ Reach

Vanessa was accepted to a Promise partner institution and soon found herself at a place she never thought her path would take her. Programs like Dallas County Promise are important in today’s economy as postsecondary education becomes increasingly necessary.

March 05, 2020

Southwest Economy Podcast

Economists Pia Orrenius and Keith Phillips explore new and noteworthy trends and developments affecting the Eleventh District in the new podcast.

March 05, 2020

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Banking Conditions Survey, March 2020

The Eleventh District economy expanded moderately over the reporting period. Solid growth continued in nonfinancial services, and expansion in the manufacturing sector picked up to a more moderate pace.

March 04, 2020

The Eleventh District financial sector shows continued expansion, according to respondents to the most recent Banking Conditions Survey.

March 04, 2020

Marrying for Money Ends Up Reducing Income Inequality

The marriage market constitutes a way to ameliorate income inequality in the U.S. and to create bridges across the income ladder.

March 03, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

The Effect of Immigration on Business Dynamics and Employment

This paper indicates that immigration increases the business growth rate by boosting business survival and raises employment by reducing job destruction.

February 28, 2020

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2020

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 1.2 percent in January after increasing an annualized 3.0 percent in December.

February 28, 2020

News Releases

Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE 2.1 Percent for 12 Months Through January

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in December was 2.1 percent—increased from December—according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

February 28, 2020

Consumer Credit Trends for El Paso County

The El Paso unemployment rate stood at 3.7 percent at the end of 2019, down from 4.2 in 2018 and 4.4 in 2017.

February 27, 2020

Community Development Publications

This report uses Equifax data to analyze four major types of consumer loans: auto, credit card, mortgage and student. It is part of a series of Texas county reports.

February 26, 2020

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Growth Moderates

The Texas service sector expanded at a slower pace in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

February 25, 2020

Potential Mismeasurement of Mining Limits Official Texas Real GDP Data

We show how a new measure tied to oil and gas production provides a result that is more consistent with other assessments of real output in this industry.

February 25, 2020

March 6 Summit to Explore Connection Between Housing and Access to Opportunity

Research shows that life expectancy in Texas differs as much as 30 years depending on the ZIP code in which someone lives.

February 24, 2020

Texas Economy

Growth in Texas factory activity accelerated further in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

February 24, 2020

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

Permian Basin payrolls stagnated in 2019, and the unemployment rate ticked up. Oil production reached a new high in December even as the rig count stalled.

February 21, 2020

Las Cruces payrolls grew modestly in 2019, while New Mexico overall posted solid employment gains. Southern New Mexico employment also expanded, driven by robust growth in Lea and Eddy counties.

February 20, 2020

News Releases

Dallas Fed Appoints Four New Members to Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has appointed four new members to its Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council.

February 19, 2020

Dallas Fed Welcomes Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson for Black History Month Program

On Feb. 18, 2020, Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan welcomed Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson for a conversation about Johnson’s upbringing in West Dallas, leadership, what led him into public service and the importance of diversity in our society.

February 19, 2020

News Releases

Dallas Fed Names Richard J. Mase Jr. Senior Vice President

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has promoted Richard J. Mase Jr. to senior vice president responsible for Eleventh Federal Reserve District cash operations.

February 18, 2020

An Assessment of Economic Conditions and the Stance of Monetary Policy

In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan provides his assessment of current economic conditions, the outlook for the energy industry, and the current stance of monetary policy.

February 18, 2020

Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach

The coronavirus is taking a bite out of oil markets, with oil prices the first week of February down $8–$9 per barrel from January averages.

February 14, 2020

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper studies shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through for Japan with a Bayesian structural vector autoregression model.

February 12, 2020

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Rational Bubbles in Non-Linear Business Cycle Models: Closed and Open Economies

This paper studies rational bubbles in non-linear dynamic general equilibrium models of the macroeconomy.

February 11, 2020

Economics of Love: Rejection Worth Chance at Dream Date

With the advance of social networks and increasing prevalence of online dating, the question of how men and women match up has gained importance in economics and society.

February 11, 2020

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Quantifying Risks to Sovereign Market Access: Methods and Challenges

This paper uses data from the euro area to study episodes when sovereigns lose market access.

February 10, 2020

The Austin economy expanded at a healthy pace in December. Labor markets tightened further as the unemployment rate dropped in the fourth quarter and job growth accelerated.

February 06, 2020

Texas Economy Building Momentum to Start Year

In the final months of 2019, healthy but slowing job growth and a low and generally stable unemployment rate contributed to an expanding economy, as measured by the Houston Business-Cycle Index.

February 06, 2020

Growth in the Texas economy picked up at year-end 2019 and accelerated into January and job gains in December were accompanied by service sector growth.

February 06, 2020

The Long Road to Housing Finance Reform: 'Are We There Yet?'

Over the past decade, broad-based legislative reforms for housing finance have proven elusive. However, reflecting lessons from the financial crisis, a political consensus has emerged on how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should operate.

February 04, 2020

News Releases

'Texas Expansion Likely to Continue,' in 2020, Says Dallas Fed Economist

The Texas Employment Forecast calls for 2.1 percent growth, roughly the same as the 2.0 percent in 2019.

January 31, 2020

Opportunity Zones: How Will We Know if Communities Reap the Benefits?

San Antonio’s economy saw healthy growth in December. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand above its long-term average. The unemployment rate ticked down, and quarterly job growth was strong.

January 31, 2020

Much has happened since the Dallas Fed released its first article on Opportunity Zones (OZs). While we know a lot more than we did, some aspects of OZs remain unclear.

January 31, 2020

El Paso’s economy grew 1.1 percent in 2019, slower than the metro’s long-term average growth rate. Steady job gains have boosted the business-cycle index.

January 30, 2020

Texas Service Sector Activity Growth Steady

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth remained solid in December. Payroll employment grew at a rapid clip, and unemployment stayed low.

January 30, 2020

Inclusive Economy Accelerator

Advance Together

Advance Together™ accelerates the progress of community partnerships in Texas that are addressing education and workforce challenges.

January 29, 2020

Texas Economy

The Texas service sector began 2020 growing at a similar pace as the end of 2019, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

January 28, 2020

The Texas economy continued to grow in December, with payrolls expanding at an above-average pace. The unemployment rate increased for the first time since January 2019.

January 27, 2020

The Texas economy continued to grow in December, with payrolls expanding at an above-average pace. The unemployment rate increased for the first time since January 2019.

January 27, 2020

Texas Economy

Growth in Texas factory activity accelerated in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

January 27, 2020

Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?

Permian Basin payrolls remained flat through November, and the unemployment rate has ticked up in recent months.

January 17, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

We use a decade of daily survey data from Gallup to study how monetary policy influences households' beliefs about economic conditions.

January 17, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

Distant Lending, Specialization, and Access to Credit

This paper investigates a new lending strategy made possible by distant small business lending: industry specialization.

January 16, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

Who Signs up for E-Verify? Insights from DHS Enrollment Records

This article uses confidential data from the Department of Homeland Security to examine patterns of employer enrollment in E-Verify.

January 15, 2020

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Banking Conditions Survey, January 2020

The Eleventh District economy expanded solidly over the reporting period, with growth increasing in most sectors.

January 15, 2020

The Eleventh District financial sector continues to expand, according to respondents to the most recent Banking Conditions Survey.

January 15, 2020

After the Bust, the Long Road to Housing Finance Reform

An early January surge in tensions between Iran and the United States gave a transitory boost to oil prices.

January 14, 2020

The Treasury recently released a plan proposing several administrative and legislative changes aimed at returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector after more than a decade of federal control.

January 14, 2020

International Economic Data

International House Price Database

The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

January 09, 2020

The Houston Business-Cycle Index suggests the local economy continued to expand through November despite weakness in energy.

January 09, 2020

Large, Dominant Firms Depress Local Wages; Housing Costs Help Offset Lower Pay

El Paso’s economic expansion continued into November of last year. Total nonfarm jobs grew at a 1.1 percent annualized rate year to date through November.

January 07, 2020

Concern has increased about the ability of very large firms to exert market power and hold down wages in localities where they dominate.

January 07, 2020

Research Department Working Papers

Did Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Create Jobs and Stimulate Growth? Early Evidence Using State-Level Variation in Tax Changes

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is the most extensive overhaul of the U.S. income tax code since the Tax Reform Act of 1986.

January 03, 2020

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth remained on track in November. Payroll employment grew at a rapid clip, and unemployment stayed low.

January 03, 2020

The Austin economy continued to expand in November. Unemployment remained unchanged from the previous month, while job growth slowed somewhat in recent months.

January 03, 2020

San Antonio’s economy turned in a healthy performance in November. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand above its long-term average, and recent job growth was strong.

January 03, 2020

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

January 02, 2020

Growth in the Texas Service Sector Accelerates

The Texas economy continues to grow at a healthy pace. Job growth ticked up in November, and the October growth rate was revised up.

December 31, 2019

Texas Economy

The Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

December 31, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

The latest issue looks at gentrification in big Texas cities and the impact of the 2018 U.S. tax cut on Texas. It also features a Q&A with Paula Gold-Williams, CEO of San Antonio’s municipal utility, and a Spotlight on the rise of cybercrime at banks. The “Go Figure” infographic measures the economic cost of longer border wait times.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Gentrification Transforming Neighborhoods in Big Texas Cities

An influx of new, affluent residents has descended on gentrifying neighborhoods around Texas’ four largest cities, while increasing housing costs have led some low-income households and at-risk populations to locate in more suburban areas.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Texas Sees Job, Output Gains from 2018 U.S. Tax Cut

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 likely played an important role in Texas’ stronger subsequent job growth relative to the nation.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Spotlight: Banks Face Growing Cybercrime Threat

Cybercrime is on the rise in the Eleventh District according to FBI data.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

President's Perspective

President Kaplan shares recent thoughts on interest Rates and global government debt, the U.S. economy, and recent trade developments.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Rising Demand, Renewables Generate New Challenges for Electric Utilities

Paula Gold-Williams, president and CEO of CPS Energy, offers her perspective on the electricity market in Texas.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Go Figure: Assessing the Cost of Longer Border Wait Times

Wait times spiked in spring 2019 when Customs and Border Patrol resources were diverted away from border crossings.

December 30, 2019

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Snapshot: Energy Sector Sees More Weakness

Softening oil prices and price expectations, negative stock market returns and tightening credit conditions are putting downward pressure on energy industry activity and employment.

December 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

December 30, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Activity in the oil and gas sector dipped again in fourth quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

December 27, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018).

December 20, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?

This paper studies the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR.

December 20, 2019

Dallas Faces a Gaping Digital Divide When It Comes to Economic Inclusion

In the city of Dallas, about 42 percent of households lack a fixed connection to the internet. What does this mean for our neighbors’ economic future? How can we close the digital divide?

December 20, 2019

Texas Economy

Rationally Inattentive Savers and Monetary Policy Changes: A Laboratory Experiment

Incorporating November job growth of 4.0 percent and a pickup in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.9 percent this year.

December 20, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

This paper presents a model where rationally inattentive agents decide how much to save while imperfectly tracking interest rate changes.

December 19, 2019

Texas Economy Picks Up in October; Data Revisions Show Weaker 2019 Growth

The Permian Basin rig count continued to contract in November, while oil prices ticked up in December.

December 19, 2019

Texas job growth picked up in October, although the energy sector continued to slip and manufacturing activity weakened.

December 19, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s Third-Quarter Output Revised Down

Preliminary revision to Mexico’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth suggested an increase of 0.1 percent annualized, down from the initial estimate of 0.4 percent.

December 18, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s Economic Activity Flat in 2019; Modest Growth Expected in 2020

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.2 percent through third quarter 2019. The consensus GDP growth forecast for 2019, compiled by Banco de México, remained at 0.0 percent in December.

December 18, 2019

Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market

In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.

December 17, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting interest rate expectations and show its importance to understand the transmission mechanism of forward guidance announcements.

December 16, 2019

Global Perspectives: Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Economic Projections, Deficits and Climate Change

Oil prices ticked up in November, receiving some additional support from OPEC-plus countries in early December when they announced lower crude oil production targets for 2020.

December 13, 2019

Holtz-Eakin and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Holtz-Eakin’s career as an economist, the economy, deficits and climate change.

December 12, 2019

In Memoriam: Paul A. Volcker

We are saddened by the passing of former Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chair and New York Fed President, Paul A. Volcker, who helped shape American economic policy for more than six decades.

December 09, 2019

The Austin economy continued to expand in September. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded near its long-term growth average.

December 05, 2019

Global Perspectives: Tom Luce on Public Service, Education Reform

Benchmark revisions to second-quarter employment data revealed much weaker job growth in Houston than earlier estimates had suggested.

December 04, 2019

Luce and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed his career in law and public service, his decision to become a lawyer and the key challenges facing the U.S. education system.

December 03, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter

This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analyzing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth.

November 29, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Moderate expansion continued in the Eleventh District economy. Growth held fairly steady in services and retail but decelerated slightly in manufacturing. Home sales remained on the rise while energy activity continued to decline.

November 27, 2019

Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

Permian Basin total nonfarm employment contracted in October, while year-to-date payrolls remained flat. Unemployment held steady.

November 27, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

This paper proposes a novel identification strategy for disentangling the causal effects of traditional oil demand and oil supply shocks from the effects of exogenous variation in the U.S. real interest rate and in the real value of the U.S. dollar.

November 26, 2019

Texas Service Sector Expands at Slightly Slower Pace

El Paso economic growth remained mixed through October. Year to date, the metro added jobs at a 0.7 percent annualized rate.

November 26, 2019

Texas Economy

The Texas service sector continued to grow in November, though at a slightly slower rate, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

November 26, 2019

Hours Worked by Women Age 55 to 61 Confound Labor Market Analysis

The seemingly anomalous low LIUR of one particular demographic group poses a challenge for assessing the extent to which the U.S. economy is currently close to full employment.

November 26, 2019

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

New Mexico continues to post broad-based job gains, while the labor market is mixed in Las Cruces.

November 25, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity contracted slightly in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

November 25, 2019

Technology Choice and the Long- and Short-Run Armington Elasticity

San Antonio’s economy grew strongly in October. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded at its fastest rate in six years.

November 22, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper studies the international transmission of productivity shocks when the Armington elasticity is endogenized through firms' technology choice.

November 21, 2019

Banking Conditions Survey, November 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion slowed in October as payroll employment contracted after 17 straight months of growth.

November 21, 2019

The Eleventh District financial sector has continued to expand the past six weeks, according to survey respondents.

November 20, 2019

Women Veteran Business Owners: We Want to Hear From You

The Texas economy continues to expand moderately. While job growth decelerated in September, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in the labor market.

November 20, 2019

Women veteran-owned small businesses are an important part of our regional economy, but little is known about their needs and challenges.

November 20, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Generational War on Inflation: Optimal Inflation Rates for the Young and the Old

How does a grayer society affect the political decision-making regarding inflation rates? Is deflation preferred as a society ages?

November 19, 2019

Economic Policy Uncertainty Emerges as Drag on Stock Market

Over the past two years, virtually all of the downside pressure on stock prices has come from the elevated levels of such uncertainty.

November 19, 2019

Texas Economy

What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?

Incorporating October job growth of 2.5 percent and a slight increase in the October leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.1 percent this year.

November 15, 2019

This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

November 12, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

The Rising Value of Time and the Origin of Urban Gentrification

This paper estimates a spatial equilibrium model to show that the rising value of high-skilled workers’ time contributes to the gentrification of American central cities.

November 07, 2019

Consumer Credit Trends for Bexar County

The Austin economy continued to expand in September. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded near its long-term growth average.

November 07, 2019

Community Development Publications

This report uses a nationally representative loan-level dataset from Equifax to study consumer use and timely payment of four major loan types in Bexar County.

November 07, 2019

Texas Economy Still Growing, Though Pace Slows

The regional economy is growing at a slower pace than in recent months, with Texas labor markets remaining tight. Energy activity has declined, and export growth has slowed this year.

November 07, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s Economy Expands Marginally in Third Quarter

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized 0.4 percent pace in third quarter 2019. The consensus GDP growth forecast for 2019, compiled by Banco de México, held steady at 0.5 percent in September.

November 07, 2019

Consumer Surveys Suggest Economic Conditions Remain Healthy but Growth Is Slowing

Softening oil prices and price expectations, negative stock market returns and tightening credit conditions are putting downward pressure on industry activity and employment.

November 05, 2019

The current divergence between two prominent consumer confidence indexes suggests that policymakers need to be mindful of a U.S. economy in transition.

November 05, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Embedded Supervision: How to Build Regulation into Blockchain Finance

The spread of distributed ledger technology (DLT) in finance could help to improve the efficiency and quality of supervision. This paper makes the case for embedded supervision.

November 04, 2019

Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens

Leading economic indicators, the business-cycle index, mixed employment outcomes and housing markets are, on balance, pointing to tepid or average regional growth in the second half of 2019.

October 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Growth in the Texas service sector continued to increase in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

October 29, 2019

Global Perspectives: Glenn Hubbard on Immigration, Economic Dynamism and Limits of Monetary Policy

Hubbard and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed his experiences working in the George W. Bush administration and immigration's impact on the workforce.

October 29, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

October 28, 2019

Moderate expansion continued in the El Paso economy, with job growth remaining mixed among sectors. Trade through the ports was down 7.3 percent in August from a year prior due to a decline in imports.

October 24, 2019

San Antonio’s economy expanded at a robust pace in September. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded at its fastest rate since 2016, and recent job growth surged despite tight labor markets.

October 24, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion moderated in September. Payroll gains came in below the metro’s long-term average rate after spiking in the summer.

October 24, 2019

The Texas economy continues to expand moderately. While job growth decelerated in September, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in the labor market.

October 21, 2019

Monopsony in Spatial Equilibrium

Oil production in the Permian Basin continues to reach new highs. However, the rig count and the number of drilled but uncompleted wells are contracting in the region.

October 21, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Building on the Rosen/Roback spatial equilibrium model, we investigate how the existence of local monopsony power affects the cross-sectional spatial distribution of wages and rents across cities.

October 18, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness

Using panel data for 95 countries, this study revisits the resource curse paradox in terms of oil resource abundance for the period 1980–2017.

October 18, 2019

Texas Economy

Failed Background Check, Drug Testing Stall Hiring of Low-Skilled Workers

Incorporating September job growth of 0.7 percent and a decrease in the September leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.1 percent this year.

October 18, 2019

Many companies seek to add employees as the state economy continues expanding at an above-average pace. But not all can find the workers they need.

October 17, 2019

Globalization Institute

Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Credit Frictions and Uncertainty

We examine the interaction of uncertainty and credit frictions in a New Keynesian framework. We find that poor credit conditions mostly driven by financial uncertainty induce significant nonlinearities in the transmission mechanism of U.S. monetary policy and that monetary policy uncertainty contributes as much as 40% to U.S. business cycle volatility.

October 16, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Making Sense of Increased Synchronization in Global House Prices

Evidence indicates that house prices have become somewhat more synchronized during this century, likely reflecting more correlated movements in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles that are related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification.

October 16, 2019

Banking Conditions Survey, October 2019

The Eleventh District financial sector has shown some signs of stronger growth over the past six weeks, according to survey respondents.

October 16, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Labor Market Slack Disappeared by 2016

Economic activity continued to expand moderately. Energy activity declined, but growth remained solid in manufacturing and services. Home sales increased and loan demand accelerated.

October 16, 2019

This is the second of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

October 15, 2019

Community Development Publications

Opportunity Youth in Texas

While many adverse situations contribute to a young adult becoming disconnected from school and the workforce, researchers coined the phrase “opportunity youth” to emphasize their potential economic and social contributions.

October 11, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Economic Outlook Revised Down Further as Growth Disappoints

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.5 percent in the first half of the year, its weakest growth in six years.

October 11, 2019

Economic Conditions and the Key Structural Drivers Impacting the Economic Outlook

Oil prices are on the downtrend again after a brief surge caused by recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. Employment in the oil and gas sector is falling with the rig count. For the first time on record, the U.S. did not import any oil from Venezuela.

October 11, 2019

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, key structural drivers critical to the prospects for economic growth in the U.S. and the stance of U.S. monetary policy.

October 10, 2019

Community Development Publications

Consumer Credit Trends for Texas

This report presents an analysis of current county- and ZIP code-level credit conditions for Texas—data not readily available from other sources. In this report, the mortgage market is stable, but late payments rise for auto and student debt.

October 08, 2019

A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment

The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”

October 08, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Drilling Down: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Housing Prices

This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on house prices in the largest urban centers in Texas.

October 04, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model

The Kilian and Murphy (2014) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model.

October 04, 2019

Don’t Expect U.S. Shale Producers to Respond Quickly to Geopolitical Disruption

The Austin economy posted a strong performance in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded at a solid pace, and most job sectors experienced payroll gains, although health and private education services continued to decline.

October 04, 2019

Higher oil prices due to supply disruptions and increased geopolitical risk are unlikely to generate significantly more U.S. oil production in the short term.

October 03, 2019

The Houston economy continued to hum along in August, but there are signs of slowing ahead.

October 02, 2019

The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

As activity in the oil and gas sector has decelerated, both job growth and home sales have cooled.

October 02, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks.

October 01, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Growth Improves

Activity in the Texas service sector accelerated in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

October 01, 2019

Crude Oil Price Changes Quicker to Register at Gasoline Pump

How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.

October 01, 2019

Research Publications

Southwest Economy

The latest issue looks at auto loan debt, carbon emissions and renewable energy and education spending. It also includes a Spotlight on wind and solar power, a Q&A with atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe and an infographic on Mexico's slow adoption of digital payments.

September 30, 2019

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

September 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

September 30, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion remains on track. Payroll employment rose slightly faster than its long-term average rate in August, and unemployment stayed low.

September 27, 2019

Texans Help Drive National Increase in Auto Loan Debt

The El Paso Business-Cycle Index signaled expansion in the metro. Total nonfarm jobs increased in August, housing sales continued to weaken and trade volumes were down.

September 27, 2019

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2019

Despite strong economic growth in recent years, Texas auto loan delinquency rates have risen to levels unseen since just after the Great Recession.

September 27, 2019

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

Snapshot: Domestic Migration to Texas Slows

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 27, 2019

Texas Economy Keeps Growing Despite More Pessimistic Outlook

Growth in the San Antonio economy accelerated in August. Labor markets remained near historical levels of tightness, and wage growth trended upward.

September 26, 2019

The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth.

September 26, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Activity in the oil and gas sector declined in third quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

September 25, 2019

Oil and Gas Sector Increasingly Influences U.S. Business Fixed Investment

The Texas economy continues to expand. While job growth decelerated in August, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets.

September 24, 2019

As U.S. oil production has more than doubled over the past decade, the oil and gas sector has become more important to growth in non-residential investment.

September 24, 2019

Texas Economy

Global Perspectives: Ruth J. Simmons on Trailblazing and Education

Incorporating August job growth of 1.8 percent, a downward benchmark revision to first quarter job growth and a slight decrease in the August leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year.

September 20, 2019

Simmons and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her decision to become an educator, her experience in academia and the importance of educational opportunity.

September 17, 2019

The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions

Oil prices eroded in August but rose sharply in mid-September due to an outage in Saudi Arabia. Total mining employment in Texas continues to weaken.

September 16, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

In this paper, we establish the uniform asymptotic validity of conventional asymptotic and bootstrap inference about individual impulse responses and vectors of impulse responses when the horizon is fixed with respect to the sample size.

September 06, 2019

Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

The Austin economy posted a solid performance in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index has increased strongly in recent months due to rapid job growth and a lower unemployment rate.

September 06, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

The focus of this paper is not only on correcting important misunderstandings in the recent literature on oil market models, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers.

September 05, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Banking Conditions Survey, September 2019

Moderate expansion continued in the Eleventh District economy. Output growth in manufacturing strengthened, and expansion in the service sector was strong in July but eased in August.

September 04, 2019

The Eleventh District financial sector has shown some signs of slower growth over the past six weeks, according to survey respondents.

September 04, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation

Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers. Against this background, we provide empirical evidence of the relevance of dominant-currency pricing.

September 03, 2019

Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 03, 2019

Community Development Publication

Small Business Credit Survey

Drawing on a national survey of small business owners, this report examines financial conditions and credit needs of employer firms in Texas.

August 30, 2019

The El Paso economy softened in July. Employment slumped, and year-over-year housing sales and trade volumes weakened.

August 29, 2019

Texas Service Sector Growth Softens

Job growth estimates remain healthy despite a recent downward revision.Manufacturing output has weakened in recent months and jobs in that sector are declining.

August 28, 2019

Texas Economy

Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a weaker pace in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

August 27, 2019

Solving a Puzzle: More Nonrenewable Resources Without Higher Prices

Economic intuition suggests nonrenewable resources such as metals or fossil fuels become scarcer and more expensive over time. However, a new dataset covering the years 1700 to 2018 indicates otherwise.

August 27, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Non-Renewable Resources, Extraction Technology and Endogenous Growth

We document that global resource extraction has strongly increased with economic growth, while prices have exhibited stable trends for almost all major non-renewable resources from 1700 to 2018.

August 26, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster clip in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

August 26, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in July. Payroll employment grew at a rapid clip, and unemployment stayed low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

August 26, 2019