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Dallas Fed Recent Additions

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  • Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 8

    Smaller Banks Less Able to Withstand Flattening Yield Curve

    For the overall U.S. banking system, the effect on profitability of yield-curve flattening—the lowering of the difference between the yields of short- and long-term debt—lasts about a year and is relatively small.

    June 18, 2018

  • Texas Economic Update

    Texas Economy Continues to Advance

    The Texas economy is expanding at a solid pace. Employment has grown at a 3.6 percent annualized rate through May, driven by job gains in the goods-producing sector. Unemployment remains near its historical low, and labor markets are tight.

    June 18, 2018

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    The Texas economy continued to expand at a solid pace in May. The state posted strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The headline indexes of the Dallas Fed's Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated accelerating growth.

    June 18, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating May annualized employment growth of 3.2 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.3 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.4 to 4.2 percent.

    June 15, 2018

  • International Economic Update

    Downside Risks Imperil Prospective Gains from Globalization

    Downside risks to the global economy could diminish its recent steady performance. Threats include challenges to existing trade arrangements, instability in the euro area and possible global blow-back from Federal Reserve benchmark rate increases.

    June 15, 2018

  • U.S. Economic Data

    Market Value of U.S. Government Debt

    For many uses, market value more accurately represents the debt burden faced by the U.S. government than the par value. The par value of government debt, which is reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, reflects interest rates at the time the debt was issued while the market value is adjusted to reflect market interest rates as of the observed period. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas researchers calculated the market value of U.S. government debt series until October 2010.

    June 12, 2018

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    Austin economic activity held steady in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow well above trend. Although job growth softened in April, the unemployment rate remained low. Wages continued to rise, aiding home affordability.

    June 08, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Small Business

    We find that the Dodd-Frank Act has impeded small-business lending controlling for cyclical effects and bank size, consistent with relative changes in bank credit standards. Also, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, and to a lesser extent the Dodd-Frank Act, appear to have restrained business formation.

    June 07, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Gains from Trade: Does Sectoral Heterogeneity Matter?

    This paper assesses the quantitative importance of including sectoral heterogeneity in computing the gains from trade.

    June 06, 2018

  • Energy Indicators

    The higher price environment is driving production and employment growth in the oil and gas industry. Higher prices for crude are also being passed onto consumer fuel prices even as exports remain elevated.

    June 01, 2018

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, April 2018

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.7 percent at an annualized rate in April, following a negligible increase a month earlier.

    May 31, 2018

  • U.S. Economy

    Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for April was an annualized 1.7 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for April was 2.7 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.9 percent.

    May 31, 2018

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Economic activity grew at a solid pace, with an acceleration in manufacturing activity. Expansion in the services, energy, and real estate sectors continued at about the same pace. Retail spending was mixed and drought conditions persisted in parts of the District.

    May 30, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at an Accelerated Pace

    Texas service sector activity accelerated sharply in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    May 30, 2018

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Overall, the outlook for Houston remains positive. Recent job growth has been very strong and broad based, and the region is likely to receive a tailwind from continued strength in the U.S. and Texas economies.

    May 29, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity rose markedly in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    May 29, 2018

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    Growth in the San Antonio economy picked up in April. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated to just slightly below its long-term pace as jobs increased and the unemployment rate fell.

    May 25, 2018

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    Although employment contracted in April, the El Paso economy continues to expand. Trade through the El Paso Port of Entry inched down, while maquiladora employment remained steady.

    May 24, 2018

  • 2017 Small Business Credit Survey

    The Small Business Credit Survey is a national sample of small businesses, or firms with fewer than 500 employees, aimed at providing insight into their financing and debt needs and experiences. Analysis of this dataset is issued through a series of reports.

    May 22, 2018

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas–Fort Worth economic activity accelerated in April, with the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes posting above-trend growth and payroll employment climbing in both metros.

    May 22, 2018

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    The Texas economy continued to post strong growth in April, with total nonfarm employment increasing from the previous month. Activity in the energy sector expanded further, with both the rig count and oil prices increasing.

    May 21, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating April annualized employment growth of 4.2 percent and gains in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will grow 3.6 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.5 to 4.7 percent.

    May 18, 2018

  • Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

    New Mexico’s labor market expanded in the first quarter, while employment levels in Las Cruces inched down. Trade through the port is rising, and the rig count is well above year-ago levels.

    May 17, 2018

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Employment increased in the Permian Basin during March while the unemployment rate continued to fall. Oil indicators are showing strength.

    May 17, 2018

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico Economy Expands at a Strong Pace in First Quarter

    Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized 4.5 percent pace in first quarter 2018—its highest quarterly growth since mid-2016.

    May 15, 2018

  • Texas Economic Update

    Texas Economic Growth Continues at Healthy Pace

    The Texas economy remains in a broad-based expansion. Job growth in the first quarter was a robust 3.5 percent, maintaining the solid gains seen in fourth quarter 2017.

    May 10, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Macro Aspects of Housing

    The findings in this paper suggest that a reconsideration and refinement of existing “macro-housing” theories would be appropriate.

    May 10, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford

    When focusing on the relevant impulse responses, the evidence for economic and statistically significant macroeconomic effects of tax changes in Mertens and Ravn (2013) remains present for a range of asymptotically valid inference methods.

    May 09, 2018

  • U.S. Economic Update

    Slower Growth in First Quarter Appears Temporary

    The U.S. economy entered 2018 with strong momentum, but it slowed in the first quarter.

    May 08, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Accuracy of Linear and Nonlinear Estimation in the Presence of the Zero Lower Bound

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of linear and nonlinear estimation methods for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.

    May 07, 2018

  • Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 7

    Consumers Respond More to Negative News than Positive Info

    Consumers, forced to navigate a constant stream of economic information, are often challenged to sort through details and respond to new material.

    May 04, 2018

  • Energy Indicators

    Texas oil and gas employment and drilling activity continued to grow in March and April. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude strengthened to its highest monthly average since November 2014. However, pipeline capacity in the Permian may be in short supply over the next year, putting downward pressure on barrels priced in the region and potentially restricting production growth in 2019.

    May 04, 2018

  • International Economic Update

    Global Economic Outlook Remains Strong

    Real world output growth excluding the U.S. came in at 3.4 percent in 2017, and forecasts call for continued strong growth in 2018 and 2019.

    May 04, 2018

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, March 2018

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was essentially unchanged in March, weighed down by declines in the prices of energy goods and services, particularly gasoline.

    May 04, 2018

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    Austin economic activity accelerated in March. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew at its fastest pace since late 2015, bolstered by strong employment growth over the first quarter of this year.

    May 03, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand but at Slower Pace

    Texas service sector activity continued to increase in April, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    May 01, 2018

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Overall, the outlook for Houston remains positive. Coincident and leading indicators continue to suggest healthy growth in activity in the region. Exports are expanding, while real estate and construction data are more mixed.

    April 30, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity rose markedly in April after posting slower growth in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    April 30, 2018

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    Growth in the San Antonio economy slowed in March. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated below its long-term pace, primarily due to a decline in jobs and a slight increase in the unemployment rate.

    April 27, 2018

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Ciudad Juárez maquiladora employment is steady, while employment in El Paso continues to expand.

    April 25, 2018

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas-Fort Worth economic growth continued to be healthy in March. Payroll employment in the first quarter expanded at its fastest rate in a year and a half.

    April 24, 2018

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    The Texas economy continued to grow at a healthy pace in March. The Texas Business-Cycle Index accelerated for the 24th month in a row, as employment expanded and the unemployment rate held steady at a low level.

    April 23, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating March employment growth of 2.3 percent and leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.4 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 4.6 percent.

    April 20, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Official Debt Restructurings and Development

    Despite the frequency of official debt restructurings, little systematic evidence has been produced on their characteristics and implications. Using a dataset covering more than 400 Paris Club agreements, this paper fills that gap.

    April 20, 2018

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    The Permian Basin economy remains robust in terms of employment, energy and housing. Employment expanded for the 18th month in a row during February.

    April 19, 2018

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

    This paper uses existing empirical estimates of the macroeconomic effects of tax changes to project the near term impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on US GDP growth.

    April 18, 2018

  • Energy Indicators

    The Texas oil and gas sector remained strong through March. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose slightly in March, staying close to $63 per barrel. Oil production in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford rose again. Texas oil and gas employment spiked up in February and is at its highest level since late 2015. U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports are at an all-time high and projected to increase further this year.

    April 18, 2018

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Economic activity grew moderately, with a rebound in retail sales and an acceleration in financial and nonfinancial services activity. Robust expansion in the energy industry continued, while growth in manufacturing eased somewhat.

    April 18, 2018

  • Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

    Taking the Long View: Creating a Better Future for Our Children and Grandchildren

    Short-term cyclical developments are only part of the story in understanding the U.S. and global economies.

    April 16, 2018

  • Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 6

    Declining U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates Stand Out

    Male and female prime-age labor force participation rates have declined in the U.S. at a faster rate than in most developed countries over the past 20 years, even among people with a college degree.

    April 12, 2018

  • Research Publications

    Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2018

    The latest Southwest Economy examines the importance of migration for Texas’ growth, the 2018 Texas economic outlook, rising Texas home prices and the new federal tax law.

    April 06, 2018

  • International Economic Data

    International House Price Database

    The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

    April 06, 2018

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    Austin economic activity accelerated in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew at its fastest pace since late 2015, bolstered by strong employment growth over the first two months of this year.

    April 05, 2018

  • 2017 Small Business Credit Survey: Report on Disaster-Affected Firms

    This report presents survey findings on the business conditions, insurance coverage and credit environment of small businesses located in FEMA-designated disaster zip codes across mainland U.S.

    April 04, 2018

  • Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 5

    Steeling the U.S. Economy for the Impacts of Tariffs

    Proposed steel and aluminum tariffs would likely trim a quarter percent from the U.S. gross domestic product over the long run.

    April 04, 2018

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    The outlook for Houston remains positive. Houston has had a robust start to 2018 job growth, broad measures of output have expanded, energy-related activity and related imports have continued to improve, and oil prices remain in a healthy range for the energy industry.

    April 03, 2018

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Ciudad Juárez maquiladora employment is steady, while trade through the Port picked up, led by a strong gain in exports.

    April 03, 2018

  • Regional Economy

    Agricultural Survey

    Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey noted conditions remained dry across a number of regions.

    April 02, 2018

  • Texas Economic Update

    Texas Economic Expansion Continues; Tight Labor Market Could Limit Stronger Growth

    The Texas economy’s broad expansion continues. Year-to-date employment growth has been widespread across metros and industries.

    March 30, 2018

  • Research Publications

    Southwest Economy

    The latest Southwest Economy examines the importance of migration for Texas’ growth, the 2018 Texas economic outlook, rising Texas home prices and the new federal tax law.

    March 29, 2018

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, February 2018

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.3 percent annualized rate in February. The price index for PCE excluding food and energy rose at a 2.8 percent annualized rate following a 3.5 percent annualized increase in January.

    March 29, 2018

  • Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2018

    Gone to Texas: Migration Vital to Growth in the Lone Star State

    Texas has relied on a large and sustained influx of workers from other states and other countries. Significantly, this inflow brought the types of workers most in demand.

    March 29, 2018

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    The San Antonio economy expanded at a steady pace in February. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew slightly above its long-term trend, although job growth was modest and the unemployment rate rose slightly.

    March 29, 2018

  • Surveys

    Dallas Fed Energy Survey

    Energy sector activity strengthened further in first quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

    March 28, 2018

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Fourth-Quarter Growth Revised Down; 2018 Outlook Still Healthy

    Although fourth-quarter Mexico gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised lower, performance was still strong, and this bodes well for 2018.

    March 28, 2018

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    DFW economic growth continued in February, with payroll employment expanding and unemployment staying low.

    March 28, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens

    Texas service sector activity picked up in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    March 27, 2018

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    Texas economic growth remained robust in February. The state posted strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The Texas Leading Index ticked down following several months of strong growth. Home inventories remained low, and home sales rose in the month, while indicators of residential construction were mixed.

    March 26, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity continued to expand in March, albeit at a markedly slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    March 26, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating an upwardly revised January job growth of 4.0 percent, February growth of 3.2 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.4 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 4.7 percent.

    March 23, 2018

  • U.S. Economic Update

    U.S. Economic Outlook Improves in First Quarter

    The economic outlook has slightly improved since January, owing to strong gross domestic product (GDP) and employment growth.

    March 23, 2018

  • Annual Report 2017

    Facing the Storm: The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Impact of Hurricane Harvey

    The 2017 Annual Report focuses on how the Dallas Fed served the Gulf Coast communities during Hurricane Harvey.

    March 23, 2018

  • Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 4

    Global, National Business Cycles and Energy Explain Texas Metro Growth

    A mix of global, national and state-specific shocks help drive employment fluctuations between U.S. states.

    March 23, 2018

  • International Economic Update

    Global Growth Little Changed Despite Heightened Policy Uncertainty

    Global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth decreased from 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis in third quarter 2017 to 3.4 percent in fourth quarter 2017.

    March 23, 2018

  • Energy Indicators

    The Texas oil and gas sector continued to remain strong through February. While prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell slightly in February from a three-year high in January, estimated production in the Permian Basin reached 3 million barrels per day.

    March 23, 2018

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Midland and Odessa’s combined nonfarm employment increased to 172,200 during January, and unemployment continued to fall. Oil production grew to over 3 million barrels per day and the rig count continued to rise.

    March 22, 2018

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Recent economic data remain positive for Houston. January employment growth was healthy, and job growth in 2017 was stronger than initially estimated.

    March 21, 2018

  • Research Publications

    Estimating Taxable Income Responses with Elasticity Heterogeneity 

    This paper illustrates the empirical importance of elasticity heterogeneity by using the NBER tax panel for 1979-1990.

    March 21, 2018

  • Community Development Publication

    Seizing the Opportunity for Equitable and Inclusive Redevelopment: Galveston’s Trials After Hurricane Ike Offer Lessons for Other Communities

    This report highlights lessons learned from continued recovery efforts in Galveston, Texas, following Hurricane Ike, which can inform communities currently rebuilding after recent natural disasters.

    March 16, 2018

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    The San Antonio economy expanded at a steady pace in January. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew slightly above its long-term trend despite weak job growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate. 

    March 15, 2018

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth was moderate in January. Revised data indicate that DFW employment expanded 2.4 percent in 2017.

    March 14, 2018

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    Texas economic growth remained strong in January. The state posted solid job gains, and unemployment remained low. Texas employment increased at a solid pace in 2017 but slower than estimated prior to the benchmark revision.

    March 13, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating January employment growth of 2.5 percent and leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.3 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.8 to 4.8 percent.

    March 09, 2018

  • Research Working Papers

    A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty

    This paper develops a new way to quantify the effect of uncertainty and other higher-order moments.

    March 08, 2018

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Economic activity grew moderately, with sectors like manufacturing and energy continuing their solid expansions while others cooled somewhat. Growth in nonfinancial services activity slowed slightly, as did loan growth, and retail sales fell modestly.

    March 07, 2018

  • Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 3

    Rising Public Debt to GDP Can Harm Economic Growth

    The debt–growth relationship is complex, varying across countries and affected by global factors.

    March 06, 2018

  • Community Development Publications

    Consumer Credit Trends for Dallas County

    This report presents an analysis of current county- and ZIP code-level credit conditions for Dallas—data not readily available from other sources.

    March 06, 2018

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    Austin economic growth remained robust in January. According to revised data, employment grew 4.2 percent in 2017, the fastest rate among Texas’ large metro areas.

    March 02, 2018

  • Everyday Economics

    The Federal Reserve

    The Federal Reserve, the newest publication in the Everyday Economics series, provides an engaging look at the role and responsibilities of today’s central bank. Companion classroom-ready lesson also available.

    March 02, 2018

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    El Paso’s robust labor market has placed pressure on average weekly wages. Home sales and single-family housing permits are expanding, although the median home price remains steady.

    March 01, 2018

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2018

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 4.5 percent annualized rate in January. The price index for energy goods and services rose sharply for the month; food prices rose slightly.

    March 01, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment

    This paper uses a broad-range set of inflation models and pseudo out-of-sample forecasts to assess their predictive ability among 14 emerging market economies at different horizons.

    March 01, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Increase

    Texas service sector activity continued to reflect expansion in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    February 27, 2018

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity expanded at a faster pace in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    February 26, 2018

  • Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

    Despite a stagnant labor market, home sales in Las Cruces continue to rise. Trade through the Santa Teresa port is above year-ago levels, and rising oil prices continue to boost production.

    February 22, 2018

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Wages in the Permian Basin fell for the second quarter in a row after spiking in first quarter 2017. The rig count, crude oil production and oil prices all rose in January.

    February 22, 2018

  • Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

    Discussion of Economic Conditions and Key Challenges Facing the U.S. Economy

    In a new essay, Robert S. Kaplan provides a synopsis of his current views regarding economic conditions and U.S. monetary policy.

    February 21, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Product Turnover and the Cost of Living Index: Quality vs. Fashion Effects

    This paper evaluates the effects of product turnover on a welfare-based cost-of-living index. We first present some facts about price and quantity changes over the product cycle employing scanner data for Japan for the years 1988-2013, which cover the deflationary period that started in the mid-1990s.

    February 21, 2018

  • Energy Indicators

    Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil went up in January to a three-year high. Permian Basin crude oil production continued to increase as the oil rig count continues to rise.

    February 15, 2018

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

    Optimal monetary policy under discretion, commitment, and optimal simple rules regimes is analyzed through a behavioral New Keynesian model. Flexible price level targeting dominates under discretion; flexible inflation targeting dominates under commitment; and strict price level targeting dominates when using optimal simple rules.

    February 14, 2018