Dallas Fed Recent Additions

Labor Market Slack Disappeared by 2016

Economic activity continued to expand moderately. Energy activity declined, but growth remained solid in manufacturing and services. Home sales increased and loan demand accelerated.

October 16, 2019

This is the second of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

October 15, 2019

International Economic Data

International House Price Database

The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

October 11, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Economic Outlook Revised Down Further as Growth Disappoints

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.5 percent in the first half of the year, its weakest growth in six years.

October 11, 2019

Economic Conditions and the Key Structural Drivers Impacting the Economic Outlook

Oil prices are on the downtrend again after a brief surge caused by recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. Employment in the oil and gas sector is falling with the rig count. For the first time on record, the U.S. did not import any oil from Venezuela.

October 11, 2019

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, key structural drivers critical to the prospects for economic growth in the U.S. and the stance of U.S. monetary policy.

October 10, 2019

Community Development Publications

Consumer Credit Trends for Texas

This report presents an analysis of current county- and ZIP code-level credit conditions for Texas—data not readily available from other sources. In this report, the mortgage market is stable, but late payments rise for auto and student debt.

October 08, 2019

A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment

The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”

October 08, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Drilling Down: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Housing Prices

This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on house prices in the largest urban centers in Texas.

October 04, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model

The Kilian and Murphy (2014) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model.

October 04, 2019

Don’t Expect U.S. Shale Producers to Respond Quickly to Geopolitical Disruption

The Austin economy posted a strong performance in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded at a solid pace, and most job sectors experienced payroll gains, although health and private education services continued to decline.

October 04, 2019

Higher oil prices due to supply disruptions and increased geopolitical risk are unlikely to generate significantly more U.S. oil production in the short term.

October 03, 2019

The Houston economy continued to hum along in August, but there are signs of slowing ahead.

October 02, 2019

The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

As activity in the oil and gas sector has decelerated, both job growth and home sales have cooled.

October 02, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks.

October 01, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Growth Improves

Activity in the Texas service sector accelerated in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

October 01, 2019

Crude Oil Price Changes Quicker to Register at Gasoline Pump

How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.

October 01, 2019

Research Publications

Southwest Economy

The latest issue looks at auto loan debt, carbon emissions and renewable energy and education spending. It also includes a Spotlight on wind and solar power, a Q&A with atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe and an infographic on Mexico's slow adoption of digital payments.

September 30, 2019

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

September 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

September 30, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion remains on track. Payroll employment rose slightly faster than its long-term average rate in August, and unemployment stayed low.

September 27, 2019

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2019

The El Paso Business-Cycle Index signaled expansion in the metro. Total nonfarm jobs increased in August, housing sales continued to weaken and trade volumes were down.

September 27, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was close to unchanged in August, rising at a scant 0.4 percent annualized rate, following a 2.9 percent annualized increase in July.

September 27, 2019

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2019

Texans Help Drive National Increase in Auto Loan Debt

Despite strong economic growth in recent years, Texas auto loan delinquency rates have risen to levels unseen since just after the Great Recession.

September 27, 2019

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

Snapshot: Domestic Migration to Texas Slows

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 27, 2019

U.S. Economy

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in August was 2.0 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 1.4 percent on a 12-month basis and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.8 percent on a 12-month basis.

September 27, 2019

Texas Economy Keeps Growing Despite More Pessimistic Outlook

Growth in the San Antonio economy accelerated in August. Labor markets remained near historical levels of tightness, and wage growth trended upward.

September 26, 2019

The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth.

September 26, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Activity in the oil and gas sector declined in third quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

September 25, 2019

Oil and Gas Sector Increasingly Influences U.S. Business Fixed Investment

The Texas economy continues to expand. While job growth decelerated in August, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets.

September 24, 2019

As U.S. oil production has more than doubled over the past decade, the oil and gas sector has become more important to growth in non-residential investment.

September 24, 2019

Texas Economy

Global Perspectives: Ruth J. Simmons on Trailblazing and Education

Incorporating August job growth of 1.8 percent, a downward benchmark revision to first quarter job growth and a slight decrease in the August leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year.

September 20, 2019

Simmons and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her decision to become an educator, her experience in academia and the importance of educational opportunity.

September 17, 2019

Market Value of U.S. Government Debt

Oil prices eroded in August but rose sharply in mid-September due to an outage in Saudi Arabia. Total mining employment in Texas continues to weaken.

September 16, 2019

U.S. Economic Data

For many uses, market value more accurately represents the debt burden faced by the U.S. government than the par value. The par value of government debt, which is reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, reflects interest rates at the time the debt was issued while the market value is adjusted to reflect market interest rates as of the observed period.

September 13, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions

In this paper, we establish the uniform asymptotic validity of conventional asymptotic and bootstrap inference about individual impulse responses and vectors of impulse responses when the horizon is fixed with respect to the sample size.

September 06, 2019

Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

The Austin economy posted a solid performance in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index has increased strongly in recent months due to rapid job growth and a lower unemployment rate.

September 06, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

The focus of this paper is not only on correcting important misunderstandings in the recent literature on oil market models, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers.

September 05, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?

We use daily survey data from Gallup to assess whether households' beliefs about economic conditions are influenced by surprises in monetary policy announcements.

September 04, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Banking Conditions Survey, September 2019

Moderate expansion continued in the Eleventh District economy. Output growth in manufacturing strengthened, and expansion in the service sector was strong in July but eased in August.

September 04, 2019

The Eleventh District financial sector has shown some signs of slower growth over the past six weeks, according to survey respondents.

September 04, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation

Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers. Against this background, we provide empirical evidence of the relevance of dominant-currency pricing.

September 03, 2019

Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 03, 2019

Community Development Publication

Small Business Credit Survey

Drawing on a national survey of small business owners, this report examines financial conditions and credit needs of employer firms in Texas.

August 30, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2019

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in July following a 1.4 percent annualized increase in June.

August 30, 2019

The El Paso economy softened in July. Employment slumped, and year-over-year housing sales and trade volumes weakened.

August 29, 2019

Texas Service Sector Growth Softens

Job growth estimates remain healthy despite a recent downward revision.Manufacturing output has weakened in recent months and jobs in that sector are declining.

August 28, 2019

Texas Economy

Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a weaker pace in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

August 27, 2019

Solving a Puzzle: More Nonrenewable Resources Without Higher Prices

Economic intuition suggests nonrenewable resources such as metals or fossil fuels become scarcer and more expensive over time. However, a new dataset covering the years 1700 to 2018 indicates otherwise.

August 27, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Non-Renewable Resources, Extraction Technology and Endogenous Growth

We document that global resource extraction has strongly increased with economic growth, while prices have exhibited stable trends for almost all major non-renewable resources from 1700 to 2018.

August 26, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster clip in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

August 26, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in July. Payroll employment grew at a rapid clip, and unemployment stayed low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

August 26, 2019

The San Antonio economy grew at a steady pace in July. Tight labor markets persisted, with unemployment rates low and labor force growth tepid.

August 23, 2019

Do Immigrants Threaten U.S. Public Safety?

Permian Basin total nonfarm employment picked up in July, but year-to-date payrolls remain flat.

August 23, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Opponents of immigration often claim that immigrants, particularly those who are unauthorized, are more likely than U.S. natives to commit crimes and that they pose a threat to public safety. There is little evidence to support these claims.

August 22, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Risk Management for Sovereign Debt Financing with Sustainability Conditions

We develop a model of debt sustainability analysis with optimal financing decisions in the presence of macroeconomic, financial and fiscal uncertainty.

August 22, 2019

GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom’s First 10 Years

The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains.

August 20, 2019

Texas’ economic performance remains solid. The state saw robust job growth in July, and the unemployment rate held steady at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets.

August 19, 2019

Texas Economy

Affordable Rental Housing in Rural Texas

Incorporating July job growth of 3.4 percent and a slight increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.6 percent this year.

August 16, 2019

Community Development Publication

Explore shifts in the housing market and factors that have increased rental-cost burdens across Texas and the country.

August 15, 2019

In Uncertain Times, Fed Sometimes Turns to ‘Insurance’

In June 2019, a concept appeared in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes that had not shown up in FOMC minutes for 11 years—the idea of monetary policy “insurance.”

August 13, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Growth Picks Up Slightly in Second Quarter

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.4 percent in the second quarter after contracting 0.7 percent in the first quarter.

August 12, 2019

Services, Construction Lead Texas as Manufacturing, Energy Soften

Sluggish growth in manufacturing is attributable to softening demand for durables, which appears tied to a slowing energy sector.

August 08, 2019

Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions

Oil prices were mostly flat in July despite rising geopolitical tensions with Iran. West Texas natural gas prices averaged above zero as limited takeaway capacity continues to pressure pricing. Mining employment has leveled off.

August 07, 2019

With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy.

August 06, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2019

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 1.5 percent annualized rate in June, similar to its increase in May.

August 02, 2019

The Austin economy posted strong performance in June. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though labor force growth remained tepid.

August 01, 2019

Texas Service Sector Growth Increases to 2019 High

Leading indicators for Houston have slowed in recent months, and building permits for new single-family housing have continued to slide.

July 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

July 30, 2019

The El Paso economy remained healthy in June. The business-cycle index expanded, and year-to-date employment growth is above average.

July 29, 2019

Texas Economy

Takeaways from the Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference

Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

July 29, 2019

Highlights from the May 22-23 conference that focused on the implications of technology-enabled disruption for the economy—for firms, workers, governments and monetary policymakers.

July 25, 2019

The San Antonio economy expanded moderately in June. The unemployment rate rose slightly, and the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew marginally above its long-term trend.

July 25, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in June. Payroll employment in the second quarter expanded at its fastest rate in over two years. Unemployment remains low, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

July 24, 2019

Texas’ economic expansion continues to advance. The state posted robust job growth in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to a new record low, indicating further tightening in labor markets.

July 23, 2019

Structural Change and Global Trade

Permian Basin total nonfarm employment rose in June, partly due to an increase in the mining, logging and construction sector

July 22, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 58 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 79 percent in 2015. In a trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences and input-output linkages, we find that such structural change has restrained the growth of world trade to GDP by 15 percentage points over this period.

July 19, 2019

Texas Economy

Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data

Incorporating June job growth of 3.9 percent and a slight increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.5 percent this year.

July 19, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

The estimated model shows new empirical evidence that technology news shocks are a major source of fluctuations in U.S. output growth.

July 19, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables.

July 18, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations

We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market.

July 18, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Time-Varying Money Demand and Real Balance Effects

Economic activity expanded moderately. Retail sales and drilling activity dipped, but growth picked up in nonfinancial services and manufacturing in June after softening in May.

July 17, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics.

July 16, 2019

As Wages Rise, Are Black Workers Seeing the Smallest Gains?

A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise.

July 16, 2019

Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds

Oil prices dipped from May to June. Drilling activity also softened, particularly for shallower wells. However, mining employment accelerated the past few months ahead of a surge in pipeline capacity and in spite of worsening company outlooks.

July 12, 2019

Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

July 11, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Economic Outlook Weakens

Preliminary revision to Mexico’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth suggested a decline of 0.7 percent annualized, up from the initial estimate of a -0.8 percent.

July 10, 2019

Trade Relationships Affect U.S. Dollar Appreciation’s Impact Across States

The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies has appreciated, making most goods produced in the U.S. more expensive overseas during the past year.

July 09, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets

We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of eight U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and April 2018.

July 03, 2019

The Austin economy remained healthy in May. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend.

July 03, 2019

Houston business-cycle and leading indexes pointed to a growing economy in May. Employment, particularly mining-related jobs, accelerated, but the U.S. rig count and oil prices have fallen in recent months.

July 03, 2019

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

July 01, 2019

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2019

The El Paso economy continues to expand. The labor market is healthy, with job growth above the long-term average. Existing-home sales are strong, and the median home price has begun to pick up.

June 28, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in May following a 3.9 percent annualized increase in April.

June 28, 2019

A Brief Discussion Regarding the Impact of Climate Change on Economic Conditions in the Eleventh District

One factor being increasingly discussed at the Dallas Fed is the impact of climate change on the Eleventh District, says Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan. In particular, severe weather events can have a substantial human and economic cost to the district.

June 27, 2019

Trade Tensions Cloud Outlook as Texas Experiences Moderate Growth

The San Antonio economy expanded temperately in May. The unemployment rate ticked down further, while the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated to a pace close to its long-term trend.

June 27, 2019

The region’s moderate expansion continues, despite a weakening outlook. Job gains were solid in May, with most industries and major metros adding to payrolls, and labor markets remaining historically tight.

June 27, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in May. Payroll employment rose, and unemployment remained at a 20-year low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

June 26, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Activity in the oil and gas sector was flat in second quarter 2019 after three years of growth, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

June 26, 2019

Texas Service Sector Growth Strengthens

Texas economic indicators pointed to continued moderate expansion in May. The state posted solid job growth and record-low unemployment, indicating that labor markets remain tight.

June 25, 2019

Texas Economy

Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

June 25, 2019

Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking

Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making.

June 25, 2019

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

Economic Conditions and the Stance of Monetary Policy

President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, business activity in the Eleventh District, the appropriate stance of U.S. monetary policy and how the implications of climate change are impacting Dallas Fed economic analysis.

June 24, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

June 24, 2019

Job growth has softened in the Permian Basin as drilling activity has slowed. The rig count has fallen, while oil output continues to rise.

June 21, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas Facing Historically Tight Labor Markets, Constraining Growth

Incorporating May job growth of 2.1 percent and a moderate decrease in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year.

June 21, 2019

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

Labor force expansion, once fueled by migration, has eased, and businesses report that they cannot find sufficient numbers of workers to expand—particularly for middle-skill positions.

June 21, 2019

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

Snapshot: Shale Breakevens Anchor Oil Prices

The emergence of U.S. shale production seems to be playing a large role in anchoring long-term oil prices.

June 21, 2019

In line with an eroding rig count, employment in support activities for mining fell in April. Oil prices slipped recently amid rising U.S. inventories and signs that global demand growth may slow.

June 12, 2019

Has U.S. Monetary Policy Gone Off Track?

The Austin economy grew at a solid pace in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded and remained above its long-term trend.

June 06, 2019

The actions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can be explained by the committee’s pursuit of full employment and price stability.

June 06, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

U.S. Tax Cuts Boost Economy—but for How Long?

Economic activity expanded moderately, although there were scattered signs of a deceleration in growth in early May. Home sales rose, and loan volumes continued to increase.

June 05, 2019

Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes.

June 04, 2019

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

New Mexico continues to post robust job gains, while Las Cruces payrolls are stagnant. The labor market is mixed in southern New Mexico.

June 03, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Monetary Policy Spillovers, Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Financial Channel of Exchange Rates

This paper assesses the empirical validity of the trilemma (or impossible trinity) in the 2000s for a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies.

May 31, 2019

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, April 2019

Recent data for Houston were positive. These data suggest a healthy near-term outlook for the Houston region.

May 31, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 3.8 percent at an annualized rate in April following a 2.5 percent annualized increase in March.

May 31, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Estimates Across Time and Space

This paper suggests the use of a correlated random effects model for the panel estimation of equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments.

May 30, 2019

Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack

Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.

May 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Growth Weakens

Texas service sector activity growth slowed in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

May 29, 2019

Texas Economy

Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation

Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

May 28, 2019

Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course.

May 28, 2019

El Paso’s economy continues to expand. Jobs rose an annualized 1.1 percent in April. Despite the healthy labor market, population growth in El Paso has stalled.

May 24, 2019

Corporate Indebtedness: Improving Financial Stability Monitoring

The San Antonio economy expanded at a moderate pace in April. The unemployment rate continued to decline, while the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated to its strongest pace since July 2016.

May 23, 2019

U.S. nonfinancial corporate credit has been identified as an area where growth in the quantity of debt and deterioration in the quality of underwriting could be a source of concern.

May 23, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in April. Payroll employment rose in Dallas but contracted in Fort Worth. Unemployment fell to a 20-year low, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

May 22, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Valuation Risk Revalued

The recent success of valuation risk in resolving asset pricing puzzles rests sensitively on an undesirable asymptote. After revising the preferences to remove the asymptote, valuation risk has a much smaller but still important role in a Bansal-Yaron long-run risk model.

May 20, 2019

Texas economic indicators point to solid expansion in April. The state posted strong job growth and record-low unemployment, indicating that labor markets remain tight.

May 20, 2019

Texas Economy

Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Incorporating April job growth of 2.6 percent, a slight increase in Q4 2018 job growth due to the early benchmark revision and a fourth consecutive increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment.

May 17, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market.

May 16, 2019

Dallas Fed’s Texas Jobs Estimates Provide Early, Accurate Assessment

Recent data were mixed for the Permian Basin region in 2019. Job growth, Midland wages, housing permits and weekly oil prices softened.

May 16, 2019

The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises regional job estimates in a process called benchmarking. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas adjustment provides researchers a more current means of assessing Texas economic conditions.

May 16, 2019

Three Macroeconomic Factors to Watch in Equity Markets

Machine learning has helped make music playlist recommendations, facilitated self-driving cars and even interpreted patients’ medical test results.

May 14, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Economy Contracts, but Outlook Holds Steady

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell an annualized 0.8 percent in first quarter 2019, after growing 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018.

May 09, 2019

Texas Economy Rebounds from Year-End Slowdown, Grows at Moderate Pace

Texas economic activity expanded moderately in the first quarter after downshifting markedly in November and December.

May 09, 2019

Remarks for Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference

In his remarks given on May 3, 2019, at “Strategies for Monetary Policy: A Policy Conference” hosted by the Hoover Institution, President Rob Kaplan discusses some of the potential issues raised by recent weakness in headline and core inflation measures.

May 07, 2019

Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison

While limited takeaway capacity drove Waha natural gas prices below zero in April, oil prices in West Texas continued to rise. The increase in crude prices was supported in part by lower output from OPEC nations and production declines related to sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

May 06, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Trimmed-mean Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation is a less-biased real-time estimator of headline inflation than ex-food-and-energy PCE inflation and more successfully filters out headline inflation’s transitory variation.

May 06, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Adverse Selection, Lemons Shocks and Business Cycles

This paper studies a dynamic economy featuring asymmetric information and resulting adverse selection in credit markets.

May 03, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, March 2019

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.4 percent at an annualized rate in March following a 1.3 percent annualized increase in February.

May 03, 2019

The Austin economy grew slowly in the first quarter. Growth in the Austin Business-Cycle Index decreased slightly and continued to run below its long-term trend.

May 03, 2019

Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates Slightly

El Paso’s economy continues to expand, with jobs rising 2.1 percent year to date. March existing-home sales picked up from February but are below year-ago levels.

April 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity continued to increase in April, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

April 30, 2019

Recent data for Houston are mixed, but they continue to paint a moderately positive outlook for the region.

April 29, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

April 29, 2019

Everyday Economics

The Federal Reserve

Alexander Hamilton's ideas and vision for central banking in the 1700s had a lasting impact. Watch a quick animated video to learn how the founding father’s 1st Bank of the United States resonated hundreds of years later in the Federal Reserve.

April 26, 2019

Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks

The San Antonio economy expanded at a healthy pace in March. The unemployment rate declined to a multiyear low. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand at a rate above the long-term trend.

April 25, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

We develop a multi-sector DSGE model to calculate upstream and downstream industry exposure networks from U.S. input-output tables and test the relative importance of shocks from each direction by comparing these with estimated networks of firms’ equity return responses to one another.

April 24, 2019

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued to be healthy in March. Payroll employment in the first quarter expanded at its fastest rate in two and a half years.

April 23, 2019

Global Perspectives: Mike Leavitt on Health Care Costs and Higher Education

Texas economic indicators pointed to moderate expansion in March. Job growth outpaced its long-run average, and unemployment remained low.

April 23, 2019

The U.S. health care system is uniquely innovative, but it is also arguably uniquely inefficient. Health outcomes in the U.S.—whether measured in terms of simple metrics such as life expectancy or more sophisticated ones such as quality-adjusted life years—do not seem commensurate with health care expenditures.

April 23, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies

This paper estimates the natural interest rate for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques.

April 19, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility

We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016.

April 19, 2019

Texas Economy

Demographics and the Evolution of Global Imbalances

Incorporating March job growth of 2.2 percent and a third consecutive increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.8 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.6 to 3.0 percent.

April 19, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Using a dynamic, multicountry model I quantify the effect of demographic changes on trade imbalances across 28 countries since 1970.

April 19, 2019

Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy

Permian Basin natural gas prices are starting to bounce back after falling to record lows in early April, and the number of drilled but uncompleted wells is rising.

April 19, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper re-examines the case for capital controls in a large open economy, where domestic financial constraints may bind following a large negative shock.

April 19, 2019

Fed Listens Community Listening Session

Speakers from nonprofits shared perspectives on economic conditions in South Dallas at a public event with Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida.

April 18, 2019

Global Perspectives: Janet Yellen on Becoming an Economist, Being Fed Chair and Views on Fed Independence

Janet Yellen holds a unique place in Federal Reserve history. It all began with a year as a humble Fed staff economist in 1977.

April 18, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows

In this paper we jointly analyze global drivers of gross flows (outflows plus inflows) and net flows (outflows minus inflows) by estimating a latent factor model.

April 17, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Estimation of Impulse Response Functions When Shocks are Observed at a Higher Frequency than Outcome Variables

Economic activity expanded moderately, with a pickup in demand seen in the housing and financial services sec-tors. Retail sales were flat, and growth in nonfinancial services slowed.

April 17, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper proposes mixed-frequency distributed-lag (MFDL) estimators of impulse response functions (IRFs) and uses the approach to estimate the daily pass-through of changes in crude oil prices observed at a daily frequency to U.S. gasoline consumer prices observed at a weekly frequency.

April 16, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Beyond the Doomsday Economics of “Proof-of-Work” in Cryptocurrencies

This paper discusses the economics of how Bitcoin achieves data immutability, and thus payment finality, via costly computations, i.e., “proof-of-work.”

April 16, 2019

Small Business Credit Survey

This report presents national survey findings on business conditions, financial challenges and credit environment from the perspective of small business owners with employees.

April 16, 2019

Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation

The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices.

April 16, 2019

Globally Competitive Texas Exports Sensitive to U.S. Trade Policy

Texas, the nation’s largest exporting state, enjoys a strong position in world trade. The state continues to see exports climb, and it exhibits a manufacturing edge in energy-related products and intermediate goods based on an index of comparative advantage.

April 11, 2019

Modern Refineries, Shale Boom Upend Traditional Oil Price Relationships

Investor returns in the energy sector have lagged behind the broader market for some time. This has led to restraint in capital spending plans for 2019, which may be contributing to a lower rig count and a tepid outlook for employment growth this year.

April 09, 2019

Different crude oils can sell for dramatically different prices with sometimes far-reaching effects on the energy industry—from impacts on oil producers’ production decisions to oil refineries’ profit margins.

April 09, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Output Growth Slows, Outlook Worsens

Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding a revised 2.4 percent in the third quarter.

April 05, 2019

Texas Economic Activity Stabilizes, but Slower Job Growth Is Ahead

The Austin economy grew moderately in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded but remained below its long-term trend.

April 05, 2019

Output growth in Texas has stabilized after a relatively robust 2018. However, a tight labor market, slowing energy activity and weakening global demand will restrain Texas growth during 2019, an assessment consistent with the Dallas Fed’s outlook for the year.

April 04, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields

We consider the influence of domestic and U.S. macroeconomic news surprises on daily bond yields over the January 1999 to January 2018 period for four advanced Negative Interest Rate Policy economies.

April 03, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Estimating Impulse Response Functions When the Shock Series Is Observed

We compare the finite sample performance of a variety of consistent approaches to estimating Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) in a linear setup when the shock of interest is observed.

April 02, 2019

Risks Abound If China Uses Debt to Stimulate Economy from Current Downturn

Houston job growth, leading and coincident indicators, and oil and fuel prices have improved over the past few months. Mining-related employment continued to grow, and bank lending expanded faster in the region than the nation.

April 02, 2019

The Chinese economy is losing steam. As China considers how to work through its difficulties, its chances of success may depend on how it finances the debt it incurs while attempting to boost economic activity.

April 02, 2019

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

April 01, 2019

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2019

El Paso’s economy continues to expand. While employment contracted in February, jobs rose 1.2 percent year to date. Existing-home sales dipped, while median-home prices inched up in February.

April 01, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index declined 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in January following a 0.7 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

March 29, 2019

The Office of Minority and Women Inclusion

2018 Congressional Report

This report details the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' 2018 performance related to the OMWI provisions of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

March 29, 2019

Global Perspectives: Greg Mankiw on Economic Advice, Climate Change and Trade

The San Antonio economy expanded at a stable rate in February. The unemployment rate declined, and the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though at a rate slightly below the long-term trend.

March 29, 2019

Mankiw and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed some of the things that economists don't understand about politicians (and that politicians don't understand about economists).

March 28, 2019

How Much Do Movers Move Average Wage Growth?

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in February, with payroll employment expanding and unemployment staying low. Looking at the two-month period, employment performance has been healthy—above the metro’s long-run average.

March 27, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Energy sector activity grew modestly in first quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

March 27, 2019

Data from the Current Population Survey, a household survey used to compute the unemployment rate, do not include individuals who change residences. If it could include movers, our previous estimate of 2018 average individual wage growth would increase from 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent or higher.

March 26, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Decelerates

Texas service sector activity growth softened in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

March 26, 2019

Texas economic indicators pointed to moderate economic growth in February. Job growth was near its long-run average, and unemployment remained low.

March 25, 2019

Texas Economy

Position as Top Exporting State Exposes Texas to Shifting Trade Policy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

March 25, 2019

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2019

As the nation's No. 1 exporting state, Texas faces challenges from shifting trade policies, which tend to erode the cost advantages that benefit the state's leading sectors globally.

March 22, 2019

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2019

Snapshot: Economy Booms in Midland–Odessa

The Permian Basin economy, at the heart of U.S. oil production, has boomed as oil output expanded.

March 22, 2019

Texas Economy

Incorporating February job growth of 1.8 percent and a second consecutive increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.5 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.2 to 2.8 percent.

March 22, 2019

Production growth in the Permian Basin continued to rise even as the rig count fell. The gap in prices between West Texas Intermediate (WTI)–Midland and WTI–Cushing closed as transportation constraints eased.

March 22, 2019

Growth in employment and the business-cycle index slowed for Houston at the start of the year. Leading indicators were mixed but largely painted a softer outlook for 2019.

March 19, 2019

The San Antonio economy grew at a steady pace in January. Although the unemployment rate ticked up, the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand at a rate slightly above trend.

March 18, 2019

The Austin economy saw mixed performance in January. The Austin Business-Cycle Index decelerated and remained below its long-term trend.

March 15, 2019

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continued its expansion in January. Job growth was moderate, and the Dallas Business-Cycle Index rose. However, the Fort Worth Business-Cycle Index fell following robust growth in 2018.

March 14, 2019