Dallas Fed Recent Additions

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2018

Recent indicators have been mixed but continue to paint a positive overall picture for the industry. Drilling, well permit applications and production numbers have all plateaued in recent weeks.

August 03, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.2 percent at an annualized rate in June, following a 2.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

August 03, 2018

U.S. Economy

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for June was an annualized 2.2 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for June was 1.2 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.3 percent.

August 03, 2018

Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

The Austin economy continued to expand at a solid pace in June. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew near its long-term trend. Although labor markets remained constrained, the metro posted solid employment growth.

August 02, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market.

August 02, 2018

Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Market: A Tale of Three Generations

The professional services sector continues to lead a broad-based acceleration in the Houston economy this year amid strong growth in the local labor force. Construction employment is surging as the existing-home market remains tight.

July 31, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

While relatively low education levels do not appear to hamper Hispanic immigrants’ employment, they play a key role in explaining low levels of employment among Hispanic immigrants’ descendants.

July 31, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates

Texas service sector activity accelerated in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

July 31, 2018

Texas Economy

The robust expansion in Texas factory activity continued in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

July 30, 2018

The El Paso economy continues to expand as the labor market continues to add jobs and home sales reach record levels. Trade through the El Paso port of entry rose, while maquiladora employment remained steady.

July 27, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in June. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though below its long-term average, as the unemployment rate held at a low level and job growth remained tepid.

July 26, 2018

Employment growth picked up in the second quarter, and unemployment remains near historic lows. The rig count has stalled, but production continues to grow.

July 26, 2018

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continues to expand. The June jobs report indicated employment growth moderated, with DFW adding jobs at the slowest pace so far this year.

July 24, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

The Texas economy continued to expand at a solid pace in June. There were strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated continued growth in the state’s manufacturing and service-providing sectors.

July 24, 2018

A look at partnerships that advance workforce and economic competitiveness in five separate regions.

July 23, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

West Central Texas Region: Manufacturing Partnership

Partnerships launch when industry leaders in one geographic region (such as West Central Texas) come together to identify their biggest shared opportunities for growth, then prioritize the most important requirements to capitalize on those opportunities.

July 21, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

Northeast Louisiana: Health Care Partnership

The health care sector is prominently featured in the region's workforce development plan. This sector also matters to economic development simply because of the number of quality jobs it provides.

July 21, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

East Bay, California: Manufacturing and Transportation & Logistics Partnerships

Partnerships launch when industry leaders in one geographic region (such as the East Bay of California) come together to identify their biggest shared opportunities for growth, then prioritize the most important requirements to capitalize on those opportunities.

July 21, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

Lane County, Oregon: Technology Partnership

Lane Workforce Partnership (LWP) is Lane County’s local workforce development board, a nonprofit organization.

July 21, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Valuation Risk Revalued

The recent asset pricing literature finds valuation risk is an important determinant of key asset pricing moments. After correcting the preference specification, we find long-run risk, rather than valuation risk, plays the biggest role in explaining asset prices.

July 20, 2018

Texas Economy

Eleventh District Beige Book

Incorporating June employment growth of 2.8 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.0 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.8 percent.

July 20, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Economic activity continued to grow at a solid pace. Manufacturing output rose, and broad-based expansion in the services and energy sectors continued. Retail spending rose while drought conditions became more widespread.

July 18, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

This paper describes the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS)’s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS and TROS indexes with regard to Texas employment growth.

July 17, 2018

International Economic Data

International House Price Database

The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

July 13, 2018

Drilling activity continues to expand in Texas as prices continue to be favorable. OPEC recently indicated it would increase production, but falling inventories, unplanned outages and limited spare OPEC capacity left the price reaction mixed.

July 05, 2018

Mexico’s First-Quarter Output Revised Up, but Growth Stalls in April

Austin economic activity held steady in May. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow near trend. Job growth accelerated after softening in March and April, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest rate since the beginning of the year.

July 05, 2018

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey noted continuing drought conditions across many regions of the Eleventh District.

July 02, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s economy grew slightly faster in first quarter 2018 than previously estimated. First-quarter gross domestic product was revised to 4.6 percent, up from the prior estimate of 4.5 percent.

June 29, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.6 percent at an annualized rate in May, following a 2.9 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

June 29, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand

The El Paso economy continues to expand. The labor market keeps growing, and homes sales reached near-record levels in May. Trade through the El Paso Port of Entry rose, while maquiladora employment remained steady.

June 28, 2018

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Energy sector activity expanded strongly in second quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

June 27, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity continued to increase in June, although at a slightly slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

June 26, 2018

Harvey Highlights Houston MUD Bond Development Funding

Professional services and manufacturing are leading growth in the Houston economy. The energy sector is expanding at an accelerated pace, leading to strong export growth. Lending at local banks has been outpacing the state and the nation. Healthy gains in the Houston Leading Index and the Houston Business-Cycle Index suggest a continued positive outlook.

June 25, 2018

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2018

Historic flooding from Hurricane Harvey struck many Houston housing developments whose infrastructure was funded with municipal utility district (MUD) bonds.

June 25, 2018

Texas Economy

The expansion in Texas factory activity continued in June, albeit at a slower pace than in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

June 25, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy held steady in May. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though below its long-term average, as the unemployment rate fell but job growth remained tepid.

June 21, 2018

U.S. Economic Picture Unchanged in Second Quarter 2018

The Permian Basin economy continued its rapid expansion in May. Employment surpassed its prebust peak as unemployment fell to a record low.

June 20, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

Economic data released since March point to continued growth in economic activity due to robust consumer spending, strong employment growth and diminishing labor market slack.

June 19, 2018

Rio Grande Valley, Texas: Next Generation Sector Partnerships in Health Care and Information Technology

The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand at a torrid pace. The May jobs report showed the metro area growing at a 3.7 percent annualized rate in the first five months of the year, adding a total of 55,500 net new jobs.

June 19, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

Partnerships launch when industry leaders in one geographic region (such as the Rio Grande Valley, Texas) come together to identify their biggest, shared opportunities for growth, then prioritize the most important requirements to capitalize on those opportunities.

June 19, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

A Perspective on Oil

This essay lays out the key factors the Dallas Fed closely tracks in analyzing the global energy markets and in considering the impact of oil prices on economic conditions in the U.S.

June 19, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 8

Smaller Banks Less Able to Withstand Flattening Yield Curve

For the overall U.S. banking system, the effect on profitability of yield-curve flattening—the lowering of the difference between the yields of short- and long-term debt—lasts about a year and is relatively small.

June 18, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Texas Economy Continues to Advance

The Texas economy is expanding at a solid pace. Employment has grown at a 3.6 percent annualized rate through May, driven by job gains in the goods-producing sector. Unemployment remains near its historical low, and labor markets are tight.

June 18, 2018

The Texas economy continued to expand at a solid pace in May. The state posted strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The headline indexes of the Dallas Fed's Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated accelerating growth.

June 18, 2018

Texas Economy

Downside Risks Imperil Prospective Gains from Globalization

Incorporating May annualized employment growth of 3.2 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.3 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.4 to 4.2 percent.

June 15, 2018

International Economic Update

Downside risks to the global economy could diminish its recent steady performance. Threats include challenges to existing trade arrangements, instability in the euro area and possible global blow-back from Federal Reserve benchmark rate increases.

June 15, 2018

The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Small Business

Austin economic activity held steady in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow well above trend. Although job growth softened in April, the unemployment rate remained low. Wages continued to rise, aiding home affordability.

June 08, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

We find that the Dodd-Frank Act has impeded small-business lending controlling for cyclical effects and bank size, consistent with relative changes in bank credit standards. Also, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, and to a lesser extent the Dodd-Frank Act, appear to have restrained business formation.

June 07, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Gains from Trade: Does Sectoral Heterogeneity Matter?

This paper assesses the quantitative importance of including sectoral heterogeneity in computing the gains from trade.

June 06, 2018

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, April 2018

The higher price environment is driving production and employment growth in the oil and gas industry. Higher prices for crude are also being passed onto consumer fuel prices even as exports remain elevated.

June 01, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.7 percent at an annualized rate in April, following a negligible increase a month earlier.

May 31, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Eleventh District Beige Book

Economic activity grew at a solid pace, with an acceleration in manufacturing activity. Expansion in the services, energy, and real estate sectors continued at about the same pace. Retail spending was mixed and drought conditions persisted in parts of the District.

May 30, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at an Accelerated Pace

Texas service sector activity accelerated sharply in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

May 30, 2018

Overall, the outlook for Houston remains positive. Recent job growth has been very strong and broad based, and the region is likely to receive a tailwind from continued strength in the U.S. and Texas economies.

May 29, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity rose markedly in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

May 29, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy picked up in April. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated to just slightly below its long-term pace as jobs increased and the unemployment rate fell.

May 25, 2018

2017 Small Business Credit Survey

Although employment contracted in April, the El Paso economy continues to expand. Trade through the El Paso Port of Entry inched down, while maquiladora employment remained steady.

May 24, 2018

The Small Business Credit Survey is a national sample of small businesses, or firms with fewer than 500 employees, aimed at providing insight into their financing and debt needs and experiences. Analysis of this dataset is issued through a series of reports.

May 22, 2018

Dallas–Fort Worth economic activity accelerated in April, with the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes posting above-trend growth and payroll employment climbing in both metros.

May 22, 2018

The Texas economy continued to post strong growth in April, with total nonfarm employment increasing from the previous month. Activity in the energy sector expanded further, with both the rig count and oil prices increasing.

May 21, 2018

Texas Economy

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

Incorporating April annualized employment growth of 4.2 percent and gains in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will grow 3.6 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.5 to 4.7 percent.

May 18, 2018

New Mexico’s labor market expanded in the first quarter, while employment levels in Las Cruces inched down. Trade through the port is rising, and the rig count is well above year-ago levels.

May 17, 2018

Mexico Economy Expands at a Strong Pace in First Quarter

Employment increased in the Permian Basin during March while the unemployment rate continued to fall. Oil indicators are showing strength.

May 17, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized 4.5 percent pace in first quarter 2018—its highest quarterly growth since mid-2016.

May 15, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Texas Economic Growth Continues at Healthy Pace

The Texas economy remains in a broad-based expansion. Job growth in the first quarter was a robust 3.5 percent, maintaining the solid gains seen in fourth quarter 2017.

May 10, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Macro Aspects of Housing

The findings in this paper suggest that a reconsideration and refinement of existing “macro-housing” theories would be appropriate.

May 10, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford

When focusing on the relevant impulse responses, the evidence for economic and statistically significant macroeconomic effects of tax changes in Mertens and Ravn (2013) remains present for a range of asymptotically valid inference methods.

May 09, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

Slower Growth in First Quarter Appears Temporary

The U.S. economy entered 2018 with strong momentum, but it slowed in the first quarter.

May 08, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

The Accuracy of Linear and Nonlinear Estimation in the Presence of the Zero Lower Bound

This paper evaluates the accuracy of linear and nonlinear estimation methods for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.

May 07, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 7

Consumers Respond More to Negative News than Positive Info

Consumers, forced to navigate a constant stream of economic information, are often challenged to sort through details and respond to new material.

May 04, 2018

Global Economic Outlook Remains Strong

Texas oil and gas employment and drilling activity continued to grow in March and April. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude strengthened to its highest monthly average since November 2014. However, pipeline capacity in the Permian may be in short supply over the next year, putting downward pressure on barrels priced in the region and potentially restricting production growth in 2019.

May 04, 2018

International Economic Update

Real world output growth excluding the U.S. came in at 3.4 percent in 2017, and forecasts call for continued strong growth in 2018 and 2019.

May 04, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, March 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was essentially unchanged in March, weighed down by declines in the prices of energy goods and services, particularly gasoline.

May 04, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand but at Slower Pace

Austin economic activity accelerated in March. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew at its fastest pace since late 2015, bolstered by strong employment growth over the first quarter of this year.

May 03, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity continued to increase in April, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

May 01, 2018

Overall, the outlook for Houston remains positive. Coincident and leading indicators continue to suggest healthy growth in activity in the region. Exports are expanding, while real estate and construction data are more mixed.

April 30, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity rose markedly in April after posting slower growth in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

April 30, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy slowed in March. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated below its long-term pace, primarily due to a decline in jobs and a slight increase in the unemployment rate.

April 27, 2018

Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Ciudad Juárez maquiladora employment is steady, while employment in El Paso continues to expand.

April 25, 2018

Dallas-Fort Worth economic growth continued to be healthy in March. Payroll employment in the first quarter expanded at its fastest rate in a year and a half.

April 24, 2018

The Texas economy continued to grow at a healthy pace in March. The Texas Business-Cycle Index accelerated for the 24th month in a row, as employment expanded and the unemployment rate held steady at a low level.

April 23, 2018

Texas Economy

Official Debt Restructurings and Development

Incorporating March employment growth of 2.3 percent and leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.4 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 4.6 percent.

April 20, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Despite the frequency of official debt restructurings, little systematic evidence has been produced on their characteristics and implications. Using a dataset covering more than 400 Paris Club agreements, this paper fills that gap.

April 20, 2018

The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

The Permian Basin economy remains robust in terms of employment, energy and housing. Employment expanded for the 18th month in a row during February.

April 19, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

This paper uses existing empirical estimates of the macroeconomic effects of tax changes to project the near term impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on US GDP growth.

April 18, 2018