Dallas Fed Recent Additions

Signals have been recently mixed for the oil and gas industry. Pipeline limitations continue to take center stage, slowing production growth. Mining employment growth decelerated over the summer.

October 05, 2018

Mexico's 2018 Growth Outlook Revised Down Slightly

Austin economic growth was moderate in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index stabilized but was below its long-term trend. Job growth rebounded after a sharp drop in July, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly.

October 04, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s consensus growth forecast for 2018 worsened slightly from 2.3 percent in July to 2.1 percent in August. The 2019 forecast held steady at 2.2 percent.

October 04, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Texas Economy Keeps Growing but Signs of Supply-Side Constraints Emerge

The regional economy continues to post strong growth and outpace the nation. Year to date, Texas employment growth is an annualized 3 percent, well above the U.S. growth of 1.7 percent.

October 03, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Economy Expected to Remain Strong Through Year-End

The U.S. economy continued to expand at a brisk pace in the third quarter, based on recent data releases.

October 03, 2018

International Economic Update

Emerging-Market Currencies Suffer as Advanced Economies Tighten Policy

The global economy is faced with heightened economic uncertainty due to trade-related concerns and tightening monetary policy in advanced economies adversely affecting emerging economies.

October 03, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Explosive Dynamics in House Prices? An Exploration of Financial Market Spillovers in Housing Markets Around the World

We investigate the emergence of explosiveness in the dynamics of real house prices and the role played by asset market spillovers.

October 02, 2018

Current Account Adjustment and Retained Earnings

Growth in El Paso remains broad based. Year to date, the metro has added jobs at a 2.0 percent annualized rate, above its long-run average of 1.5 percent. Home sales are at an all-time high, while home-price appreciation is moderate.

October 01, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper develops a formal strategy to calculate current accounts with retained earnings on equity investment and analyzes their adjustment during the global financial crisis.

October 01, 2018

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey noted some easing of drought conditions across several regions of the Eleventh District.

October 01, 2018

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Energy sector activity maintained its strong momentum in third quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

October 01, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.3 percent at an annualized rate in August, following a 1.6 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

September 28, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Houston's economy continues to grow at a healthy pace despite signs of a slowdown in its core energy-related sectors. Employment and business-cycle indicators are increasing, and loan growth at Houston-based banks continues to outperform the nation. Overall, the outlook remains positive.

September 28, 2018

U.S. Economy

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in August was 2.0 percent.

September 28, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in August. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated, holding below its long-term average.

September 27, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates

Growth in Dallas–Fort Worth remained broad based and brisk, with the metro area adding jobs at a 3.0 percent annualized rate—well above its long-run average.

September 25, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity accelerated in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

September 25, 2018

Texas’ economic expansion accelerated in August after moderating in July. Employment growth strengthened and was widespread across sectors and industries. The Texas Leading Index dipped but remained elevated, and energy sector indicators were mostly flat. Exports rose in July, and the volume of loans held by Texas banks expanded in the second quarter.

September 24, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

September 24, 2018

Texas Economy

Incorporating August employment growth of 4.6 percent, a revision in first-quarter job growth due to early benchmarking, and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.8 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 3.3 percent.

September 21, 2018

New Technology Boosts Texas Firms' Output, Alters Worker Mix

Overall, economic indicators show a robust Permian Basin economy with expanding employment and a tight labor market. Though oil production continues to rise, drilling activity has leveled off somewhat amid concerns over pipeline capacity.

September 21, 2018

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2018

A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of manufacturing and services firms in Texas found that as companies adopt new technologies, the number of workers is little changed though the employees’ skill levels shift.

September 21, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

This paper quantifies the drivers of euro area and U.S. economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated three-region DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities.

September 12, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Eleventh District Beige Book

Economic activity expanded at a solid pace. Manufacturing and service sectors sustained a healthy pace of growth, while activity in the housing and energy sectors was flat to down. Retail spending accelerated, as did loan demand.

September 12, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market.

September 11, 2018

Austin economic growth weakened in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index performed well below its long-term trend. The unemployment rate dipped and job growth softened, but wages inched up.

September 07, 2018

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2018

Pipeline limitations are driving down local prices for oil and natural gas, causing drilling activity to flatten and the inventory of uncompleted wells to rise in the Permian Basin. Texas mining employment growth also slowed in July.

September 06, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.5 percent at an annualized rate in July, following a 1.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

August 30, 2018

Finite-Order VAR Representation of Linear Rational Expectations Models: With Some Lessons for Monetary Policy

Softer employment growth in July slowed the business-cycle index to a more modest above-trend growth rate. Revisions to employment data dulled Houston’s stellar job growth in the six months following Hurricane Harvey.

August 29, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper considers the characterization via finite-order VARs of the solution of a large class of linear rational expectations (LRE) models.

August 29, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

This paper isolates the relative importance of global, national and region-specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual U.S. states and metro areas.

August 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand

Texas service sector activity continued to increase in August, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

August 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity maintained its strong momentum in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

August 27, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in July. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though it remains below its long-term average.

August 23, 2018

Employment and the rig count growth have slowed over the last three months in the Permian Basin but overall, economic indicators show a robust economy.

August 22, 2018

A strong labor market is boosting the El Paso economy. Year-to-date jobs gains have been broad based, and trade through the El Paso port of entry is up. Housing affordability remains above average.

August 22, 2018

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

Economic expansion in Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) remained broad based and swift, with the July jobs report showing the metro area growing at a 3.0 percent annualized rate—well above its long-run average.

August 21, 2018

Employment levels inched up in Las Cruces in the second quarter, while the state posted much stronger growth. Trade through the port is rising, and the rig count is well above year-ago levels.

August 21, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

Where We Stand: Assessment of Economic Conditions and Implications for Monetary Policy

The purpose of this essay is to discuss economic conditions in the Eleventh District and the U.S. It discusses the implications of this assessment for the stance of monetary policy in the U.S.

August 21, 2018

Texas’ economic expansion moderated in July. Employment growth softened, and growth in the Texas Business-Cycle Index slowed. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated a pickup in growth and continued optimism but also rising uncertainty.

August 20, 2018

Texas Economy

Mexico Posts Negative Growth in Second Quarter but Outlook Stable

Incorporating July employment growth of 1.3 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.7 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.3 percent.

August 17, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s economy contracted an annualized 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the consensus growth forecast for 2018 held steady in June at 2.3 percent.

August 15, 2018

Community Development Publication

Weathering the Storm: A Framework for Meeting CRA Obligations

This report provides a brief overview of disaster recovery and its connection to the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA).

August 14, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Red-Hot Texas Economic Growth Likely to Cool

The regional economy is about as hot as the Texas summer. Texas job growth was a blistering 3.6 percent (annualized) in the first half of 2018.

August 10, 2018

Research Publications

Does Medicaid Generosity Affect Household Income?

Using a Regression Kink Design (RKD) framework, this paper takes a uniquely different approach to the identification of the effect of Medicaid generosity on household income.

August 09, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.

August 08, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Economy Appears Well-Positioned for Second Half

The U.S. economy entered its 10th year of economic expansion last month, and recent data point to continued economic growth for the second half of the year.

August 07, 2018

International Economic Update

Global Growth Continues but with Higher Uncertainty

First-quarter GDP growth has been disappointing in a number of economies, and growth appears to be less synchronous than anticipated earlier in the year.

August 07, 2018

Globalization Institute

Detecting Periods of Exuberance: A Look at the Role of Aggregation with an Application to House Prices

In this paper, we examine through simulation experiments the effect of cross-sectional aggregation on the power properties of SADF and GSADF unit root tests.

August 03, 2018

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2018

Recent indicators have been mixed but continue to paint a positive overall picture for the industry. Drilling, well permit applications and production numbers have all plateaued in recent weeks.

August 03, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.2 percent at an annualized rate in June, following a 2.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

August 03, 2018

The Austin economy continued to expand at a solid pace in June. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew near its long-term trend. Although labor markets remained constrained, the metro posted solid employment growth.

August 02, 2018

Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Market: A Tale of Three Generations

The professional services sector continues to lead a broad-based acceleration in the Houston economy this year amid strong growth in the local labor force. Construction employment is surging as the existing-home market remains tight.

July 31, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

While relatively low education levels do not appear to hamper Hispanic immigrants’ employment, they play a key role in explaining low levels of employment among Hispanic immigrants’ descendants.

July 31, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates

Texas service sector activity accelerated in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

July 31, 2018

Texas Economy

The robust expansion in Texas factory activity continued in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

July 30, 2018

The El Paso economy continues to expand as the labor market continues to add jobs and home sales reach record levels. Trade through the El Paso port of entry rose, while maquiladora employment remained steady.

July 27, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in June. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though below its long-term average, as the unemployment rate held at a low level and job growth remained tepid.

July 26, 2018

Employment growth picked up in the second quarter, and unemployment remains near historic lows. The rig count has stalled, but production continues to grow.

July 26, 2018

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continues to expand. The June jobs report indicated employment growth moderated, with DFW adding jobs at the slowest pace so far this year.

July 24, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

The Texas economy continued to expand at a solid pace in June. There were strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated continued growth in the state’s manufacturing and service-providing sectors.

July 24, 2018

A look at partnerships that advance workforce and economic competitiveness in five separate regions.

July 23, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

West Central Texas Region: Manufacturing Partnership

Partnerships launch when industry leaders in one geographic region (such as West Central Texas) come together to identify their biggest shared opportunities for growth, then prioritize the most important requirements to capitalize on those opportunities.

July 21, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

Northeast Louisiana: Health Care Partnership

The health care sector is prominently featured in the region's workforce development plan. This sector also matters to economic development simply because of the number of quality jobs it provides.

July 21, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

Lane County, Oregon: Technology Partnership

Lane Workforce Partnership (LWP) is Lane County’s local workforce development board, a nonprofit organization.

July 21, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

East Bay, California: Manufacturing and Transportation & Logistics Partnerships

Partnerships launch when industry leaders in one geographic region (such as the East Bay of California) come together to identify their biggest shared opportunities for growth, then prioritize the most important requirements to capitalize on those opportunities.

July 21, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Valuation Risk Revalued

The recent asset pricing literature finds valuation risk is an important determinant of key asset pricing moments. After correcting the preference specification, we find long-run risk, rather than valuation risk, plays the biggest role in explaining asset prices.

July 20, 2018

Texas Economy

Eleventh District Beige Book

Incorporating June employment growth of 2.8 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.0 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.8 percent.

July 20, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Economic activity continued to grow at a solid pace. Manufacturing output rose, and broad-based expansion in the services and energy sectors continued. Retail spending rose while drought conditions became more widespread.

July 18, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

This paper describes the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS)’s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS and TROS indexes with regard to Texas employment growth.

July 17, 2018

Drilling activity continues to expand in Texas as prices continue to be favorable. OPEC recently indicated it would increase production, but falling inventories, unplanned outages and limited spare OPEC capacity left the price reaction mixed.

July 05, 2018

Mexico’s First-Quarter Output Revised Up, but Growth Stalls in April

Austin economic activity held steady in May. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow near trend. Job growth accelerated after softening in March and April, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest rate since the beginning of the year.

July 05, 2018

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey noted continuing drought conditions across many regions of the Eleventh District.

July 02, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s economy grew slightly faster in first quarter 2018 than previously estimated. First-quarter gross domestic product was revised to 4.6 percent, up from the prior estimate of 4.5 percent.

June 29, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.6 percent at an annualized rate in May, following a 2.9 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

June 29, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand

The El Paso economy continues to expand. The labor market keeps growing, and homes sales reached near-record levels in May. Trade through the El Paso Port of Entry rose, while maquiladora employment remained steady.

June 28, 2018

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Energy sector activity expanded strongly in second quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

June 27, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity continued to increase in June, although at a slightly slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

June 26, 2018

Harvey Highlights Houston MUD Bond Development Funding

Professional services and manufacturing are leading growth in the Houston economy. The energy sector is expanding at an accelerated pace, leading to strong export growth. Lending at local banks has been outpacing the state and the nation. Healthy gains in the Houston Leading Index and the Houston Business-Cycle Index suggest a continued positive outlook.

June 25, 2018

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2018

Historic flooding from Hurricane Harvey struck many Houston housing developments whose infrastructure was funded with municipal utility district (MUD) bonds.

June 25, 2018

Texas Economy

The expansion in Texas factory activity continued in June, albeit at a slower pace than in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

June 25, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy held steady in May. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though below its long-term average, as the unemployment rate fell but job growth remained tepid.

June 21, 2018

U.S. Economic Picture Unchanged in Second Quarter 2018

The Permian Basin economy continued its rapid expansion in May. Employment surpassed its prebust peak as unemployment fell to a record low.

June 20, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

Economic data released since March point to continued growth in economic activity due to robust consumer spending, strong employment growth and diminishing labor market slack.

June 19, 2018

Rio Grande Valley, Texas: Next Generation Sector Partnerships in Health Care and Information Technology

The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand at a torrid pace. The May jobs report showed the metro area growing at a 3.7 percent annualized rate in the first five months of the year, adding a total of 55,500 net new jobs.

June 19, 2018

Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies

Partnerships launch when industry leaders in one geographic region (such as the Rio Grande Valley, Texas) come together to identify their biggest, shared opportunities for growth, then prioritize the most important requirements to capitalize on those opportunities.

June 19, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

A Perspective on Oil

This essay lays out the key factors the Dallas Fed closely tracks in analyzing the global energy markets and in considering the impact of oil prices on economic conditions in the U.S.

June 19, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 8

Smaller Banks Less Able to Withstand Flattening Yield Curve

For the overall U.S. banking system, the effect on profitability of yield-curve flattening—the lowering of the difference between the yields of short- and long-term debt—lasts about a year and is relatively small.

June 18, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Texas Economy Continues to Advance

The Texas economy is expanding at a solid pace. Employment has grown at a 3.6 percent annualized rate through May, driven by job gains in the goods-producing sector. Unemployment remains near its historical low, and labor markets are tight.

June 18, 2018

The Texas economy continued to expand at a solid pace in May. The state posted strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The headline indexes of the Dallas Fed's Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated accelerating growth.

June 18, 2018

Texas Economy

Downside Risks Imperil Prospective Gains from Globalization

Incorporating May annualized employment growth of 3.2 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.3 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.4 to 4.2 percent.

June 15, 2018

International Economic Update

Downside risks to the global economy could diminish its recent steady performance. Threats include challenges to existing trade arrangements, instability in the euro area and possible global blow-back from Federal Reserve benchmark rate increases.

June 15, 2018