Dallas Fed Recent Additions

Oil prices tumbled in November due to the United States' Iran policy, surging U.S. production, rising inventories and concerns about the global demand outlook.

December 07, 2018

Eleventh District Beige Book

The Austin economy expanded at a strong pace in October. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and continued above its long-term trend.

December 06, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Growth in economic activity slowed to a moderate pace. A broad-based softening was seen in manufacturing, retail, and housing. Drilling activity increased. Hiring continued, and widespread labor shortages pushed up wages.

December 05, 2018

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

New Mexico employment is steadily expanding, while Las Cruces jobs remained stagnant in the third quarter and year to date. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the Las Cruces metro posted slower growth in 2017 than in previous years.

December 03, 2018

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, October 2018

El Paso's economy continued to expand in October. Existing-home sales remained near all-time highs, while home-price appreciation was moderate.

November 29, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.2 percent at an annualized rate in October, following a 1.5 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

November 29, 2018

U.S. Economy

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for October was an annualized 1.6 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for September was 2.2 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.2 percent.

November 29, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates Slightly

The outlook for Houston softened as leading indicators broadly slowed over the past three months. Revisions to data show that 2018 Houston employment growth has been healthy but not as strong as early estimates suggested.

November 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity grew at a faster pace in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

November 27, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in November, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

November 26, 2018

Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates

The Permian Basin economy remains robust, reaching highs in production, employment and home prices. However, there are signs of moderation.

November 21, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

We estimate the effects of quantitative easing (QE) measures by the ECB and the Federal Reserve on the US dollar-euro exchange rate at frequencies and horizons relevant for policymakers.

November 20, 2018

Inflation and the Gig Economy: Have the Rise of Online Retailing and Self-Employment Disrupted the Phillips Curve?

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained soft in October. The San Antonio Business-Cycle index accelerated, though growth continued to be below its long-term average.

November 20, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

By omitting important structural changes in both goods and labor markets, conventional Phillips Curve models have failed to track how the rise of online retailing has flattened the Phillips Curve and how the rise of the gig economy (self-employment) has lowered the natural rate of unemployment.

November 20, 2018

Mean Group Estimation in Presence of Weakly Cross-Correlated Estimators

Growth in Dallas-Fort Worth remained widespread and brisk, with the metro area adding 9,500 jobs. Unemployment fell, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes posted solid and above-trend growth.

November 20, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper extends the mean group estimator for random coefficient panel data models by allowing the underlying individual estimators to be weakly cross-correlated.

November 19, 2018

Rationally Inattentive Consumer: An Experiment

Texas economic growth remained healthy in October. The state added jobs at a strong pace, with the expansion widespread across metros and most industries.

November 19, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

This paper presents a laboratory experiment that directly tests the theoretical predictions of consumption choices under rational inattention.

November 19, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Economy Posts Strong Third-Quarter Growth

Mexico's economic output recovered sharply in the third quarter, rising an annualized 3.6 percent after contracting in the second quarter. The consensus growth forecast for 2018 held steady in October at 2.1 percent.

November 19, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Capital Accumulation and Dynamic Gains from Trade

We compute welfare gains from trade in a dynamic, multicountry model with capital accumulation and trade imbalances.

November 16, 2018

Community Development Publications

Preparing Workers for the Expanding Digital Economy

This book chapter explores how digital inclusion increases access to jobs, economic opportunity and upward mobility.

November 16, 2018

Texas Economy

Global Economy Continues to Grow amid Downside Risks

Incorporating October employment growth of 2.7 percent, an upward revision of job growth in September and a slight decline in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.9 percent this year (December/December)

November 16, 2018

International Economic Update

Global economic growth remains solid, although the pace is moderating as significant downside risks remain for both advanced and emerging economies.

November 14, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Texas Economy Continues Expansion but Shows Signs of Cooling

Texas economic growth remains robust but is showing signs of moderating. While many major Texas metros saw employment gains in the third quarter, state job growth was slower compared with the first half of the year.

November 14, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, September 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.5 percent at an annualized rate in September, following a 1.3 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

November 13, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Expansion Remains on Solid Footing

The U.S. economy has now expanded for 112 consecutive months, the second-longest stretch on record, and recent data point to continued growth due to strong consumer spending, robust employment growth and elevated business and consumer confidence.

November 13, 2018

The Austin economy expanded at a strong pace in September. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and continued above its long-term trend.

November 02, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at a Slower Pace

Houston economic conditions remain mostly positive, as does the overall outlook for the area. The business-cycle index continues to exhibit strong growth, and the Houston Leading Index is accelerating.

October 31, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity continued to grow in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

October 30, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

October 29, 2018

Structural Change and Global Trade

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in September. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated while remaining below its long-term average.

October 26, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 58 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 79 percent in 2015. In a trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences and input-output linkages, we find that such structural change has restrained the growth in world trade to GDP by 16 percentage points over this period.

October 26, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective

This paper explores the relationship between greater trade openness (globalization) and the observed shifts in international business cycles.

October 25, 2018

Growth in El Paso remains broad based, with the metro area adding jobs at a 3.3 percent annualized rate in September. Home sales are at an all-time high, while home price appreciation is moderate.

October 25, 2018

Eleventh District Beige Book

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth moderated in September. Payroll employment expanded at a slower pace in the third quarter than the second.

October 24, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Economic activity expanded at a solid pace. Healthy growth continued in manufacturing, retail and nonfinancial services. Loan demand increased further while home sales were flat. Capacity constraints restrained growth in the energy sector.

October 24, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

The Neutral Rate of Interest

This essay explores a number of the key issues associated with using the neutral rate concept in formulating monetary policy.

October 24, 2018

The Texas economy grew at a moderate pace in September. The state added jobs at a slower pace than in August, and unemployment dipped to a record low.

October 23, 2018

The Permian Basin economy remains robust. Employment growth has moderated in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains at historical lows.

October 22, 2018

Texas Economy

Slow Post-Financial Crisis Recovery and Monetary Policy

Incorporating September employment growth of 1.7 percent and moderate growth in the Texas Leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.7 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.2 percent.

October 19, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Post-financial crisis recoveries tend to be slow and be accompanied by slowdowns in TFP and permanent losses in GDP. To prevent them, how should monetary policy be conducted?

October 19, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies: Policy Proposals

This paper traces the evolution of fiscal institutions of Resource-Rich Arab Economies over time since their pre-oil days, through the discovery of oil to their build-up of oil exports.

October 18, 2018

Community Development Publication

Opportunity Zones in Texas: Promise and Peril

This article explores the implications of a new tax incentive program to spur investment in low-income communities.

October 17, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Global Trends in Interest Rates

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades.

October 16, 2018

International Economic Data

International House Price Database

The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

October 11, 2018

Signals have been recently mixed for the oil and gas industry. Pipeline limitations continue to take center stage, slowing production growth. Mining employment growth decelerated over the summer.

October 05, 2018

Mexico's 2018 Growth Outlook Revised Down Slightly

Austin economic growth was moderate in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index stabilized but was below its long-term trend. Job growth rebounded after a sharp drop in July, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly.

October 04, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s consensus growth forecast for 2018 worsened slightly from 2.3 percent in July to 2.1 percent in August. The 2019 forecast held steady at 2.2 percent.

October 04, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Texas Economy Keeps Growing but Signs of Supply-Side Constraints Emerge

The regional economy continues to post strong growth and outpace the nation. Year to date, Texas employment growth is an annualized 3 percent, well above the U.S. growth of 1.7 percent.

October 03, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Economy Expected to Remain Strong Through Year-End

The U.S. economy continued to expand at a brisk pace in the third quarter, based on recent data releases.

October 03, 2018

International Economic Update

Emerging-Market Currencies Suffer as Advanced Economies Tighten Policy

The global economy is faced with heightened economic uncertainty due to trade-related concerns and tightening monetary policy in advanced economies adversely affecting emerging economies.

October 03, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Explosive Dynamics in House Prices? An Exploration of Financial Market Spillovers in Housing Markets Around the World

We investigate the emergence of explosiveness in the dynamics of real house prices and the role played by asset market spillovers.

October 02, 2018

Current Account Adjustment and Retained Earnings

Growth in El Paso remains broad based. Year to date, the metro has added jobs at a 2.0 percent annualized rate, above its long-run average of 1.5 percent. Home sales are at an all-time high, while home-price appreciation is moderate.

October 01, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper develops a formal strategy to calculate current accounts with retained earnings on equity investment and analyzes their adjustment during the global financial crisis.

October 01, 2018

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey noted some easing of drought conditions across several regions of the Eleventh District.

October 01, 2018

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Energy sector activity maintained its strong momentum in third quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

October 01, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.3 percent at an annualized rate in August, following a 1.6 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

September 28, 2018

Houston's economy continues to grow at a healthy pace despite signs of a slowdown in its core energy-related sectors. Employment and business-cycle indicators are increasing, and loan growth at Houston-based banks continues to outperform the nation. Overall, the outlook remains positive.

September 28, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in August. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated, holding below its long-term average.

September 27, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates

Growth in Dallas–Fort Worth remained broad based and brisk, with the metro area adding jobs at a 3.0 percent annualized rate—well above its long-run average.

September 25, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity accelerated in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

September 25, 2018

Texas’ economic expansion accelerated in August after moderating in July. Employment growth strengthened and was widespread across sectors and industries. The Texas Leading Index dipped but remained elevated, and energy sector indicators were mostly flat. Exports rose in July, and the volume of loans held by Texas banks expanded in the second quarter.

September 24, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

September 24, 2018

Texas Economy

Incorporating August employment growth of 4.6 percent, a revision in first-quarter job growth due to early benchmarking, and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.8 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 3.3 percent.

September 21, 2018

New Technology Boosts Texas Firms' Output, Alters Worker Mix

Overall, economic indicators show a robust Permian Basin economy with expanding employment and a tight labor market. Though oil production continues to rise, drilling activity has leveled off somewhat amid concerns over pipeline capacity.

September 21, 2018

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2018

A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of manufacturing and services firms in Texas found that as companies adopt new technologies, the number of workers is little changed though the employees’ skill levels shift.

September 21, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

This paper quantifies the drivers of euro area and U.S. economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated three-region DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities.

September 12, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Eleventh District Beige Book

Economic activity expanded at a solid pace. Manufacturing and service sectors sustained a healthy pace of growth, while activity in the housing and energy sectors was flat to down. Retail spending accelerated, as did loan demand.

September 12, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market.

September 11, 2018

Austin economic growth weakened in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index performed well below its long-term trend. The unemployment rate dipped and job growth softened, but wages inched up.

September 07, 2018

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2018

Pipeline limitations are driving down local prices for oil and natural gas, causing drilling activity to flatten and the inventory of uncompleted wells to rise in the Permian Basin. Texas mining employment growth also slowed in July.

September 06, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.5 percent at an annualized rate in July, following a 1.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

August 30, 2018

Finite-Order VAR Representation of Linear Rational Expectations Models: With Some Lessons for Monetary Policy

Softer employment growth in July slowed the business-cycle index to a more modest above-trend growth rate. Revisions to employment data dulled Houston’s stellar job growth in the six months following Hurricane Harvey.

August 29, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper considers the characterization via finite-order VARs of the solution of a large class of linear rational expectations (LRE) models.

August 29, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

This paper isolates the relative importance of global, national and region-specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual U.S. states and metro areas.

August 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand

Texas service sector activity continued to increase in August, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

August 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity maintained its strong momentum in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

August 27, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in July. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though it remains below its long-term average.

August 23, 2018

Employment and the rig count growth have slowed over the last three months in the Permian Basin but overall, economic indicators show a robust economy.

August 22, 2018

A strong labor market is boosting the El Paso economy. Year-to-date jobs gains have been broad based, and trade through the El Paso port of entry is up. Housing affordability remains above average.

August 22, 2018

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

Economic expansion in Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) remained broad based and swift, with the July jobs report showing the metro area growing at a 3.0 percent annualized rate—well above its long-run average.

August 21, 2018

Employment levels inched up in Las Cruces in the second quarter, while the state posted much stronger growth. Trade through the port is rising, and the rig count is well above year-ago levels.

August 21, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

Where We Stand: Assessment of Economic Conditions and Implications for Monetary Policy

The purpose of this essay is to discuss economic conditions in the Eleventh District and the U.S. It discusses the implications of this assessment for the stance of monetary policy in the U.S.

August 21, 2018

Texas’ economic expansion moderated in July. Employment growth softened, and growth in the Texas Business-Cycle Index slowed. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated a pickup in growth and continued optimism but also rising uncertainty.

August 20, 2018

Texas Economy

Mexico Posts Negative Growth in Second Quarter but Outlook Stable

Incorporating July employment growth of 1.3 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.7 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.3 percent.

August 17, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s economy contracted an annualized 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the consensus growth forecast for 2018 held steady in June at 2.3 percent.

August 15, 2018

Community Development Publication

Weathering the Storm: A Framework for Meeting CRA Obligations

This report provides a brief overview of disaster recovery and its connection to the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA).

August 14, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Red-Hot Texas Economic Growth Likely to Cool

The regional economy is about as hot as the Texas summer. Texas job growth was a blistering 3.6 percent (annualized) in the first half of 2018.

August 10, 2018

Research Publications

Does Medicaid Generosity Affect Household Income?

Using a Regression Kink Design (RKD) framework, this paper takes a uniquely different approach to the identification of the effect of Medicaid generosity on household income.

August 09, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.

August 08, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Economy Appears Well-Positioned for Second Half

The U.S. economy entered its 10th year of economic expansion last month, and recent data point to continued economic growth for the second half of the year.

August 07, 2018

International Economic Update

Global Growth Continues but with Higher Uncertainty

First-quarter GDP growth has been disappointing in a number of economies, and growth appears to be less synchronous than anticipated earlier in the year.

August 07, 2018

Globalization Institute

Detecting Periods of Exuberance: A Look at the Role of Aggregation with an Application to House Prices

In this paper, we examine through simulation experiments the effect of cross-sectional aggregation on the power properties of SADF and GSADF unit root tests.

August 03, 2018