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Dallas Fed Recent Additions

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  • Economic Policy Uncertainty Emerges as Drag on Stock Market

    Over the past two years, virtually all of the downside pressure on stock prices has come from the elevated levels of such uncertainty.

    November 19, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating October job growth of 2.5 percent and a slight increase in the October leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.1 percent this year.

    November 15, 2019

  • U.S. Economic Data

    Market Value of U.S. Government Debt

    For many uses, market value more accurately represents the debt burden faced by the U.S. government than the par value. The par value of government debt, which is reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, reflects interest rates at the time the debt was issued while the market value is adjusted to reflect market interest rates as of the observed period.

    November 13, 2019

  • What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?

    This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

    November 12, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Rising Value of Time and the Origin of Urban Gentrification

    This paper estimates a spatial equilibrium model to show that the rising value of high-skilled workers’ time contributes to the gentrification of American central cities.

    November 07, 2019

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    The Austin economy continued to expand in September. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded near its long-term growth average.

    November 07, 2019

  • Community Development Publications

    Consumer Credit Trends for Bexar County

    This report uses a nationally representative loan-level dataset from Equifax to study consumer use and timely payment of four major loan types in Bexar County.

    November 07, 2019

  • Texas Economy Still Growing, Though Pace Slows

    The regional economy is growing at a slower pace than in recent months, with Texas labor markets remaining tight. Energy activity has declined, and export growth has slowed this year.

    November 07, 2019

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico’s Economy Expands Marginally in Third Quarter

    Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized 0.4 percent pace in third quarter 2019. The consensus GDP growth forecast for 2019, compiled by Banco de México, held steady at 0.5 percent in September.

    November 07, 2019

  • Energy Indicators

    Softening oil prices and price expectations, negative stock market returns and tightening credit conditions are putting downward pressure on industry activity and employment.

    November 05, 2019

  • Consumer Surveys Suggest Economic Conditions Remain Healthy but Growth Is Slowing

    The current divergence between two prominent consumer confidence indexes suggests that policymakers need to be mindful of a U.S. economy in transition.

    November 05, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Embedded Supervision: How to Build Regulation into Blockchain Finance

    The spread of distributed ledger technology (DLT) in finance could help to improve the efficiency and quality of supervision. This paper makes the case for embedded supervision.

    November 04, 2019

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, September 2019

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was effectively unchanged in September, declining at a negligible 0.1 percent annualized rate, following a similarly slight 0.3 percent annualized increase in August.

    November 01, 2019

  • U.S. Economy

    Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in September was 2.1 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 1.3 percent on a 12-month basis and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.7 percent on a 12-month basis.

    October 31, 2019

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Leading economic indicators, the business-cycle index, mixed employment outcomes and housing markets are, on balance, pointing to tepid or average regional growth in the second half of 2019.

    October 30, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens

    Growth in the Texas service sector continued to increase in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    October 29, 2019

  • Global Perspectives: Glenn Hubbard on Immigration, Economic Dynamism and Limits of Monetary Policy

    Hubbard and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed his experiences working in the George W. Bush administration and immigration's impact on the workforce.

    October 29, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    October 28, 2019

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    Moderate expansion continued in the El Paso economy, with job growth remaining mixed among sectors. Trade through the ports was down 7.3 percent in August from a year prior due to a decline in imports.

    October 24, 2019

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    San Antonio’s economy expanded at a robust pace in September. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded at its fastest rate since 2016, and recent job growth surged despite tight labor markets.

    October 24, 2019

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion moderated in September. Payroll gains came in below the metro’s long-term average rate after spiking in the summer.

    October 24, 2019

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    The Texas economy continues to expand moderately. While job growth decelerated in September, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in the labor market.

    October 21, 2019

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Oil production in the Permian Basin continues to reach new highs. However, the rig count and the number of drilled but uncompleted wells are contracting in the region.

    October 21, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Monopsony in Spatial Equilibrium

    Building on the Rosen/Roback spatial equilibrium model, we investigate how the existence of local monopsony power affects the cross-sectional spatial distribution of wages and rents across cities.

    October 18, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness

    Using panel data for 95 countries, this study revisits the resource curse paradox in terms of oil resource abundance for the period 1980–2017.

    October 18, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating September job growth of 0.7 percent and a decrease in the September leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.1 percent this year.

    October 18, 2019

  • Failed Background Check, Drug Testing Stall Hiring of Low-Skilled Workers

    Many companies seek to add employees as the state economy continues expanding at an above-average pace. But not all can find the workers they need.

    October 17, 2019

  • Globalization Institute

    Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Credit Frictions and Uncertainty

    We examine the interaction of uncertainty and credit frictions in a New Keynesian framework. We find that poor credit conditions mostly driven by financial uncertainty induce significant nonlinearities in the transmission mechanism of U.S. monetary policy and that monetary policy uncertainty contributes as much as 40% to U.S. business cycle volatility.

    October 16, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Making Sense of Increased Synchronization in Global House Prices

    Evidence indicates that house prices have become somewhat more synchronized during this century, likely reflecting more correlated movements in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles that are related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification.

    October 16, 2019

  • Banking Conditions Survey, October 2019

    The Eleventh District financial sector has shown some signs of stronger growth over the past six weeks, according to survey respondents.

    October 16, 2019

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Economic activity continued to expand moderately. Energy activity declined, but growth remained solid in manufacturing and services. Home sales increased and loan demand accelerated.

    October 16, 2019

  • Labor Market Slack Disappeared by 2016

    This is the second of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

    October 15, 2019

  • International Economic Data

    International House Price Database

    The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

    October 11, 2019

  • Community Development Publications

    Opportunity Youth in Texas

    While many adverse situations contribute to a young adult becoming disconnected from school and the workforce, researchers coined the phrase “opportunity youth” to emphasize their potential economic and social contributions.

    October 11, 2019

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico's Economic Outlook Revised Down Further as Growth Disappoints

    Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.5 percent in the first half of the year, its weakest growth in six years.

    October 11, 2019

  • Energy Indicators

    Oil prices are on the downtrend again after a brief surge caused by recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. Employment in the oil and gas sector is falling with the rig count. For the first time on record, the U.S. did not import any oil from Venezuela.

    October 11, 2019

  • Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

    Economic Conditions and the Key Structural Drivers Impacting the Economic Outlook

    President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, key structural drivers critical to the prospects for economic growth in the U.S. and the stance of U.S. monetary policy.

    October 10, 2019

  • Community Development Publications

    Consumer Credit Trends for Texas

    This report presents an analysis of current county- and ZIP code-level credit conditions for Texas—data not readily available from other sources. In this report, the mortgage market is stable, but late payments rise for auto and student debt.

    October 08, 2019

  • A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment

    The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”

    October 08, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Drilling Down: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Housing Prices

    This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on house prices in the largest urban centers in Texas.

    October 04, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model

    The Kilian and Murphy (2014) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model.

    October 04, 2019

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    The Austin economy posted a strong performance in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded at a solid pace, and most job sectors experienced payroll gains, although health and private education services continued to decline.

    October 04, 2019

  • Don’t Expect U.S. Shale Producers to Respond Quickly to Geopolitical Disruption

    Higher oil prices due to supply disruptions and increased geopolitical risk are unlikely to generate significantly more U.S. oil production in the short term.

    October 03, 2019

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    The Houston economy continued to hum along in August, but there are signs of slowing ahead.

    October 02, 2019

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    As activity in the oil and gas sector has decelerated, both job growth and home sales have cooled.

    October 02, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

    Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks.

    October 01, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Growth Improves

    Activity in the Texas service sector accelerated in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    October 01, 2019

  • Crude Oil Price Changes Quicker to Register at Gasoline Pump

    How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.

    October 01, 2019

  • Research Publications

    Southwest Economy

    The latest issue looks at auto loan debt, carbon emissions and renewable energy and education spending. It also includes a Spotlight on wind and solar power, a Q&A with atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe and an infographic on Mexico's slow adoption of digital payments.

    September 30, 2019

  • Regional Economy

    Agricultural Survey

    Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

    September 30, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    September 30, 2019

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion remains on track. Payroll employment rose slightly faster than its long-term average rate in August, and unemployment stayed low.

    September 27, 2019

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    The El Paso Business-Cycle Index signaled expansion in the metro. Total nonfarm jobs increased in August, housing sales continued to weaken and trade volumes were down.

    September 27, 2019

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2019

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was close to unchanged in August, rising at a scant 0.4 percent annualized rate, following a 2.9 percent annualized increase in July.

    September 27, 2019

  • Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2019

    Texans Help Drive National Increase in Auto Loan Debt

    Despite strong economic growth in recent years, Texas auto loan delinquency rates have risen to levels unseen since just after the Great Recession.

    September 27, 2019

  • Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

    Snapshot: Domestic Migration to Texas Slows

    Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

    September 27, 2019

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    Growth in the San Antonio economy accelerated in August. Labor markets remained near historical levels of tightness, and wage growth trended upward.

    September 26, 2019

  • Texas Economy Keeps Growing Despite More Pessimistic Outlook

    The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth.

    September 26, 2019

  • Surveys

    Dallas Fed Energy Survey

    Activity in the oil and gas sector declined in third quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

    September 25, 2019

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    The Texas economy continues to expand. While job growth decelerated in August, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets.

    September 24, 2019

  • Oil and Gas Sector Increasingly Influences U.S. Business Fixed Investment

    As U.S. oil production has more than doubled over the past decade, the oil and gas sector has become more important to growth in non-residential investment.

    September 24, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating August job growth of 1.8 percent, a downward benchmark revision to first quarter job growth and a slight decrease in the August leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year.

    September 20, 2019

  • Global Perspectives: Ruth J. Simmons on Trailblazing and Education

    Simmons and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her decision to become an educator, her experience in academia and the importance of educational opportunity.

    September 17, 2019

  • Energy Indicators

    Oil prices eroded in August but rose sharply in mid-September due to an outage in Saudi Arabia. Total mining employment in Texas continues to weaken.

    September 16, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions

    In this paper, we establish the uniform asymptotic validity of conventional asymptotic and bootstrap inference about individual impulse responses and vectors of impulse responses when the horizon is fixed with respect to the sample size.

    September 06, 2019

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    The Austin economy posted a solid performance in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index has increased strongly in recent months due to rapid job growth and a lower unemployment rate.

    September 06, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

    The focus of this paper is not only on correcting important misunderstandings in the recent literature on oil market models, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers.

    September 05, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?

    We use daily survey data from Gallup to assess whether households' beliefs about economic conditions are influenced by surprises in monetary policy announcements.

    September 04, 2019

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Moderate expansion continued in the Eleventh District economy. Output growth in manufacturing strengthened, and expansion in the service sector was strong in July but eased in August.

    September 04, 2019

  • Banking Conditions Survey, September 2019

    The Eleventh District financial sector has shown some signs of slower growth over the past six weeks, according to survey respondents.

    September 04, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation

    Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers. Against this background, we provide empirical evidence of the relevance of dominant-currency pricing.

    September 03, 2019

  • Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten

    Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

    September 03, 2019

  • Community Development Publication

    Small Business Credit Survey

    Drawing on a national survey of small business owners, this report examines financial conditions and credit needs of employer firms in Texas.

    August 30, 2019

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2019

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in July following a 1.4 percent annualized increase in June.

    August 30, 2019

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    The El Paso economy softened in July. Employment slumped, and year-over-year housing sales and trade volumes weakened.

    August 29, 2019

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Job growth estimates remain healthy despite a recent downward revision.Manufacturing output has weakened in recent months and jobs in that sector are declining.

    August 28, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Growth Softens

    Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a weaker pace in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    August 27, 2019

  • Solving a Puzzle: More Nonrenewable Resources Without Higher Prices

    Economic intuition suggests nonrenewable resources such as metals or fossil fuels become scarcer and more expensive over time. However, a new dataset covering the years 1700 to 2018 indicates otherwise.

    August 27, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Non-Renewable Resources, Extraction Technology and Endogenous Growth

    We document that global resource extraction has strongly increased with economic growth, while prices have exhibited stable trends for almost all major non-renewable resources from 1700 to 2018.

    August 26, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity expanded at a faster clip in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    August 26, 2019

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in July. Payroll employment grew at a rapid clip, and unemployment stayed low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

    August 26, 2019

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    The San Antonio economy grew at a steady pace in July. Tight labor markets persisted, with unemployment rates low and labor force growth tepid.

    August 23, 2019

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Permian Basin total nonfarm employment picked up in July, but year-to-date payrolls remain flat.

    August 23, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Do Immigrants Threaten U.S. Public Safety?

    Opponents of immigration often claim that immigrants, particularly those who are unauthorized, are more likely than U.S. natives to commit crimes and that they pose a threat to public safety. There is little evidence to support these claims.

    August 22, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Risk Management for Sovereign Debt Financing with Sustainability Conditions

    We develop a model of debt sustainability analysis with optimal financing decisions in the presence of macroeconomic, financial and fiscal uncertainty.

    August 22, 2019

  • GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom’s First 10 Years

    The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains.

    August 20, 2019

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    Texas’ economic performance remains solid. The state saw robust job growth in July, and the unemployment rate held steady at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets.

    August 19, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating July job growth of 3.4 percent and a slight increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.6 percent this year.

    August 16, 2019

  • Community Development Publication

    Affordable Rental Housing in Rural Texas

    Explore shifts in the housing market and factors that have increased rental-cost burdens across Texas and the country.

    August 15, 2019

  • In Uncertain Times, Fed Sometimes Turns to ‘Insurance’

    In June 2019, a concept appeared in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes that had not shown up in FOMC minutes for 11 years—the idea of monetary policy “insurance.”

    August 13, 2019

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico's Growth Picks Up Slightly in Second Quarter

    Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.4 percent in the second quarter after contracting 0.7 percent in the first quarter.

    August 12, 2019

  • Services, Construction Lead Texas as Manufacturing, Energy Soften

    Sluggish growth in manufacturing is attributable to softening demand for durables, which appears tied to a slowing energy sector.

    August 08, 2019

  • Energy Indicators

    Oil prices were mostly flat in July despite rising geopolitical tensions with Iran. West Texas natural gas prices averaged above zero as limited takeaway capacity continues to pressure pricing. Mining employment has leveled off.

    August 07, 2019

  • Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions

    With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy.

    August 06, 2019

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2019

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 1.5 percent annualized rate in June, similar to its increase in May.

    August 02, 2019

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    The Austin economy posted strong performance in June. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though labor force growth remained tepid.

    August 01, 2019

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Leading indicators for Houston have slowed in recent months, and building permits for new single-family housing have continued to slide.

    July 30, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Growth Increases to 2019 High

    Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    July 30, 2019

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    The El Paso economy remained healthy in June. The business-cycle index expanded, and year-to-date employment growth is above average.

    July 29, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    July 29, 2019

  • Takeaways from the Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference

    Highlights from the May 22-23 conference that focused on the implications of technology-enabled disruption for the economy—for firms, workers, governments and monetary policymakers.

    July 25, 2019

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    The San Antonio economy expanded moderately in June. The unemployment rate rose slightly, and the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew marginally above its long-term trend.

    July 25, 2019

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in June. Payroll employment in the second quarter expanded at its fastest rate in over two years. Unemployment remains low, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

    July 24, 2019

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    Texas’ economic expansion continues to advance. The state posted robust job growth in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to a new record low, indicating further tightening in labor markets.

    July 23, 2019

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Permian Basin total nonfarm employment rose in June, partly due to an increase in the mining, logging and construction sector

    July 22, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Structural Change and Global Trade

    Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 58 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 79 percent in 2015. In a trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences and input-output linkages, we find that such structural change has restrained the growth of world trade to GDP by 15 percentage points over this period.

    July 19, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating June job growth of 3.9 percent and a slight increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.5 percent this year.

    July 19, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data

    The estimated model shows new empirical evidence that technology news shocks are a major source of fluctuations in U.S. output growth.

    July 19, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

    We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables.

    July 18, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations

    We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market.

    July 18, 2019

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Economic activity expanded moderately. Retail sales and drilling activity dipped, but growth picked up in nonfinancial services and manufacturing in June after softening in May.

    July 17, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Time-Varying Money Demand and Real Balance Effects

    This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics.

    July 16, 2019

  • As Wages Rise, Are Black Workers Seeing the Smallest Gains?

    A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise.

    July 16, 2019

  • Energy Indicators

    Oil prices dipped from May to June. Drilling activity also softened, particularly for shallower wells. However, mining employment accelerated the past few months ahead of a surge in pipeline capacity and in spite of worsening company outlooks.

    July 12, 2019

  • Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds

    Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

    July 11, 2019

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico's Economic Outlook Weakens

    Preliminary revision to Mexico’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth suggested a decline of 0.7 percent annualized, up from the initial estimate of a -0.8 percent.

    July 10, 2019

  • Trade Relationships Affect U.S. Dollar Appreciation’s Impact Across States

    The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies has appreciated, making most goods produced in the U.S. more expensive overseas during the past year.

    July 09, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets

    We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of eight U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and April 2018.

    July 03, 2019

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    The Austin economy remained healthy in May. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend.

    July 03, 2019

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Houston business-cycle and leading indexes pointed to a growing economy in May. Employment, particularly mining-related jobs, accelerated, but the U.S. rig count and oil prices have fallen in recent months.

    July 03, 2019

  • Regional Economy

    Agricultural Survey

    Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

    July 01, 2019

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    The El Paso economy continues to expand. The labor market is healthy, with job growth above the long-term average. Existing-home sales are strong, and the median home price has begun to pick up.

    June 28, 2019

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2019

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in May following a 3.9 percent annualized increase in April.

    June 28, 2019

  • A Brief Discussion Regarding the Impact of Climate Change on Economic Conditions in the Eleventh District

    One factor being increasingly discussed at the Dallas Fed is the impact of climate change on the Eleventh District, says Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan. In particular, severe weather events can have a substantial human and economic cost to the district.

    June 27, 2019

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    The San Antonio economy expanded temperately in May. The unemployment rate ticked down further, while the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated to a pace close to its long-term trend.

    June 27, 2019

  • Trade Tensions Cloud Outlook as Texas Experiences Moderate Growth

    The region’s moderate expansion continues, despite a weakening outlook. Job gains were solid in May, with most industries and major metros adding to payrolls, and labor markets remaining historically tight.

    June 27, 2019

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in May. Payroll employment rose, and unemployment remained at a 20-year low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

    June 26, 2019

  • Surveys

    Dallas Fed Energy Survey

    Activity in the oil and gas sector was flat in second quarter 2019 after three years of growth, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

    June 26, 2019

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    Texas economic indicators pointed to continued moderate expansion in May. The state posted solid job growth and record-low unemployment, indicating that labor markets remain tight.

    June 25, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Growth Strengthens

    Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    June 25, 2019

  • Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking

    Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making.

    June 25, 2019

  • Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

    Economic Conditions and the Stance of Monetary Policy

    President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, business activity in the Eleventh District, the appropriate stance of U.S. monetary policy and how the implications of climate change are impacting Dallas Fed economic analysis.

    June 24, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity continued to expand in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    June 24, 2019

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Job growth has softened in the Permian Basin as drilling activity has slowed. The rig count has fallen, while oil output continues to rise.

    June 21, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating May job growth of 2.1 percent and a moderate decrease in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year.

    June 21, 2019

  • Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

    Texas Facing Historically Tight Labor Markets, Constraining Growth

    Labor force expansion, once fueled by migration, has eased, and businesses report that they cannot find sufficient numbers of workers to expand—particularly for middle-skill positions.

    June 21, 2019

  • Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2019

    Snapshot: Shale Breakevens Anchor Oil Prices

    The emergence of U.S. shale production seems to be playing a large role in anchoring long-term oil prices.

    June 21, 2019

  • Energy Indicators

    In line with an eroding rig count, employment in support activities for mining fell in April. Oil prices slipped recently amid rising U.S. inventories and signs that global demand growth may slow.

    June 12, 2019

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    The Austin economy grew at a solid pace in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded and remained above its long-term trend.

    June 06, 2019

  • Has U.S. Monetary Policy Gone Off Track?

    The actions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can be explained by the committee’s pursuit of full employment and price stability.

    June 06, 2019

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Economic activity expanded moderately, although there were scattered signs of a deceleration in growth in early May. Home sales rose, and loan volumes continued to increase.

    June 05, 2019

  • U.S. Tax Cuts Boost Economy—but for How Long?

    Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes.

    June 04, 2019

  • Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

    New Mexico continues to post robust job gains, while Las Cruces payrolls are stagnant. The labor market is mixed in southern New Mexico.

    June 03, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Monetary Policy Spillovers, Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Financial Channel of Exchange Rates

    This paper assesses the empirical validity of the trilemma (or impossible trinity) in the 2000s for a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies.

    May 31, 2019

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Recent data for Houston were positive. These data suggest a healthy near-term outlook for the Houston region.

    May 31, 2019

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, April 2019

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 3.8 percent at an annualized rate in April following a 2.5 percent annualized increase in March.

    May 31, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Estimates Across Time and Space

    This paper suggests the use of a correlated random effects model for the panel estimation of equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments.

    May 30, 2019

  • Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack

    Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.

    May 30, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Growth Weakens

    Texas service sector activity growth slowed in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    May 29, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    May 28, 2019

  • Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation

    Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course.

    May 28, 2019

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    El Paso’s economy continues to expand. Jobs rose an annualized 1.1 percent in April. Despite the healthy labor market, population growth in El Paso has stalled.

    May 24, 2019

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    The San Antonio economy expanded at a moderate pace in April. The unemployment rate continued to decline, while the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated to its strongest pace since July 2016.

    May 23, 2019

  • Corporate Indebtedness: Improving Financial Stability Monitoring

    U.S. nonfinancial corporate credit has been identified as an area where growth in the quantity of debt and deterioration in the quality of underwriting could be a source of concern.

    May 23, 2019

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in April. Payroll employment rose in Dallas but contracted in Fort Worth. Unemployment fell to a 20-year low, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further.

    May 22, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Valuation Risk Revalued

    The recent success of valuation risk in resolving asset pricing puzzles rests sensitively on an undesirable asymptote. After revising the preferences to remove the asymptote, valuation risk has a much smaller but still important role in a Bansal-Yaron long-run risk model.

    May 20, 2019

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    Texas economic indicators point to solid expansion in April. The state posted strong job growth and record-low unemployment, indicating that labor markets remain tight.

    May 20, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating April job growth of 2.6 percent, a slight increase in Q4 2018 job growth due to the early benchmark revision and a fourth consecutive increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment.

    May 17, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

    We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market.

    May 16, 2019

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Recent data were mixed for the Permian Basin region in 2019. Job growth, Midland wages, housing permits and weekly oil prices softened.

    May 16, 2019

  • Dallas Fed’s Texas Jobs Estimates Provide Early, Accurate Assessment

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises regional job estimates in a process called benchmarking. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas adjustment provides researchers a more current means of assessing Texas economic conditions.

    May 16, 2019

  • Three Macroeconomic Factors to Watch in Equity Markets

    Machine learning has helped make music playlist recommendations, facilitated self-driving cars and even interpreted patients’ medical test results.

    May 14, 2019

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico's Economy Contracts, but Outlook Holds Steady

    Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell an annualized 0.8 percent in first quarter 2019, after growing 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018.

    May 09, 2019

  • Texas Economy Rebounds from Year-End Slowdown, Grows at Moderate Pace

    Texas economic activity expanded moderately in the first quarter after downshifting markedly in November and December.

    May 09, 2019

  • Remarks for Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference

    In his remarks given on May 3, 2019, at “Strategies for Monetary Policy: A Policy Conference” hosted by the Hoover Institution, President Rob Kaplan discusses some of the potential issues raised by recent weakness in headline and core inflation measures.

    May 07, 2019

  • Energy Indicators

    While limited takeaway capacity drove Waha natural gas prices below zero in April, oil prices in West Texas continued to rise. The increase in crude prices was supported in part by lower output from OPEC nations and production declines related to sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

    May 06, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison

    Trimmed-mean Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation is a less-biased real-time estimator of headline inflation than ex-food-and-energy PCE inflation and more successfully filters out headline inflation’s transitory variation.

    May 06, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Adverse Selection, Lemons Shocks and Business Cycles

    This paper studies a dynamic economy featuring asymmetric information and resulting adverse selection in credit markets.

    May 03, 2019

  • Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

    Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, March 2019

    The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.4 percent at an annualized rate in March following a 1.3 percent annualized increase in February.

    May 03, 2019

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    The Austin economy grew slowly in the first quarter. Growth in the Austin Business-Cycle Index decreased slightly and continued to run below its long-term trend.

    May 03, 2019

  • El Paso Economic Indicators

    El Paso’s economy continues to expand, with jobs rising 2.1 percent year to date. March existing-home sales picked up from February but are below year-ago levels.

    April 30, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates Slightly

    Texas service sector activity continued to increase in April, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

    April 30, 2019

  • Houston Economic Indicators

    Recent data for Houston are mixed, but they continue to paint a moderately positive outlook for the region.

    April 29, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity continued to expand in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

    April 29, 2019

  • Everyday Economics

    The Federal Reserve

    Alexander Hamilton's ideas and vision for central banking in the 1700s had a lasting impact. Watch a quick animated video to learn how the founding father’s 1st Bank of the United States resonated hundreds of years later in the Federal Reserve.

    April 26, 2019

  • San Antonio Economic Indicators

    The San Antonio economy expanded at a healthy pace in March. The unemployment rate declined to a multiyear low. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand at a rate above the long-term trend.

    April 25, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks

    We develop a multi-sector DSGE model to calculate upstream and downstream industry exposure networks from U.S. input-output tables and test the relative importance of shocks from each direction by comparing these with estimated networks of firms’ equity return responses to one another.

    April 24, 2019

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

    Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued to be healthy in March. Payroll employment in the first quarter expanded at its fastest rate in two and a half years.

    April 23, 2019

  • Texas Economic Indicators

    Texas economic indicators pointed to moderate expansion in March. Job growth outpaced its long-run average, and unemployment remained low.

    April 23, 2019

  • Global Perspectives: Mike Leavitt on Health Care Costs and Higher Education

    The U.S. health care system is uniquely innovative, but it is also arguably uniquely inefficient. Health outcomes in the U.S.—whether measured in terms of simple metrics such as life expectancy or more sophisticated ones such as quality-adjusted life years—do not seem commensurate with health care expenditures.

    April 23, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies

    This paper estimates the natural interest rate for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques.

    April 19, 2019

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility

    We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016.

    April 19, 2019

  • Texas Economy

    Texas Employment Forecast

    Incorporating March job growth of 2.2 percent and a third consecutive increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.8 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.6 to 3.0 percent.

    April 19, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Demographics and the Evolution of Global Imbalances

    Using a dynamic, multicountry model I quantify the effect of demographic changes on trade imbalances across 28 countries since 1970.

    April 19, 2019

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Permian Basin natural gas prices are starting to bounce back after falling to record lows in early April, and the number of drilled but uncompleted wells is rising.

    April 19, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy

    This paper re-examines the case for capital controls in a large open economy, where domestic financial constraints may bind following a large negative shock.

    April 19, 2019

  • Fed Listens Community Listening Session

    Speakers from nonprofits shared perspectives on economic conditions in South Dallas at a public event with Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida.

    April 18, 2019

  • Global Perspectives: Janet Yellen on Becoming an Economist, Being Fed Chair and Views on Fed Independence

    Janet Yellen holds a unique place in Federal Reserve history. It all began with a year as a humble Fed staff economist in 1977.

    April 18, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows

    In this paper we jointly analyze global drivers of gross flows (outflows plus inflows) and net flows (outflows minus inflows) by estimating a latent factor model.

    April 17, 2019

  • Reports on Regional Economic Activity

    Eleventh District Beige Book

    Economic activity expanded moderately, with a pickup in demand seen in the housing and financial services sec-tors. Retail sales were flat, and growth in nonfinancial services slowed.

    April 17, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Estimation of Impulse Response Functions When Shocks are Observed at a Higher Frequency than Outcome Variables

    This paper proposes mixed-frequency distributed-lag (MFDL) estimators of impulse response functions (IRFs) and uses the approach to estimate the daily pass-through of changes in crude oil prices observed at a daily frequency to U.S. gasoline consumer prices observed at a weekly frequency.

    April 16, 2019

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Beyond the Doomsday Economics of “Proof-of-Work” in Cryptocurrencies

    This paper discusses the economics of how Bitcoin achieves data immutability, and thus payment finality, via costly computations, i.e., “proof-of-work.”

    April 16, 2019

  • Small Business Credit Survey

    This report presents national survey findings on business conditions, financial challenges and credit environment from the perspective of small business owners with employees.

    April 16, 2019

  • Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation

    The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices.

    April 16, 2019

  • Globally Competitive Texas Exports Sensitive to U.S. Trade Policy

    Texas, the nation’s largest exporting state, enjoys a strong position in world trade. The state continues to see exports climb, and it exhibits a manufacturing edge in energy-related products and intermediate goods based on an index of comparative advantage.

    April 11, 2019

  • Energy Indicators

    Investor returns in the energy sector have lagged behind the broader market for some time. This has led to restraint in capital spending plans for 2019, which may be contributing to a lower rig count and a tepid outlook for employment growth this year.

    April 09, 2019

  • Modern Refineries, Shale Boom Upend Traditional Oil Price Relationships

    Different crude oils can sell for dramatically different prices with sometimes far-reaching effects on the energy industry—from impacts on oil producers’ production decisions to oil refineries’ profit margins.

    April 09, 2019

  • Mexico Economic Update

    Mexico's Output Growth Slows, Outlook Worsens

    Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding a revised 2.4 percent in the third quarter.

    April 05, 2019

  • Austin Economic Indicators

    The Austin economy grew moderately in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded but remained below its long-term trend.

    April 05, 2019

  • Texas Economic Activity Stabilizes, but Slower Job Growth Is Ahead

    Output growth in Texas has stabilized after a relatively robust 2018. However, a tight labor market, slowing energy activity and weakening global demand will restrain Texas growth during 2019, an assessment consistent with the Dallas Fed’s outlook for the year.

    April 04, 2019