Dallas Fed Recent Additions

Demographics and the Evolution of Global Imbalances

Incorporating March job growth of 2.2 percent and a third consecutive increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.8 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.6 to 3.0 percent.

April 19, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Using a dynamic, multicountry model I quantify the effect of demographic changes on trade imbalances across 28 countries since 1970.

April 19, 2019

Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy

Permian Basin natural gas prices are starting to bounce back after falling to record lows in early April, and the number of drilled but uncompleted wells is rising.

April 19, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper re-examines the case for capital controls in a large open economy, where domestic financial constraints may bind following a large negative shock.

April 19, 2019

Fed Listens Community Listening Session

Speakers from nonprofits shared perspectives on economic conditions in South Dallas at a public event with Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida.

April 18, 2019

Global Perspectives: Janet Yellen on Becoming an Economist, Being Fed Chair and Views on Fed Independence

Janet Yellen holds a unique place in Federal Reserve history. It all began with a year as a humble Fed staff economist in 1977.

April 18, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows

In this paper we jointly analyze global drivers of gross flows (outflows plus inflows) and net flows (outflows minus inflows) by estimating a latent factor model.

April 17, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Estimation of Impulse Response Functions When Shocks are Observed at a Higher Frequency than Outcome Variables

Economic activity expanded moderately, with a pickup in demand seen in the housing and financial services sec-tors. Retail sales were flat, and growth in nonfinancial services slowed.

April 17, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper proposes mixed-frequency distributed-lag (MFDL) estimators of impulse response functions (IRFs) and uses the approach to estimate the daily pass-through of changes in crude oil prices observed at a daily frequency to U.S. gasoline consumer prices observed at a weekly frequency.

April 16, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Beyond the Doomsday Economics of “Proof-of-Work” in Cryptocurrencies

This paper discusses the economics of how Bitcoin achieves data immutability, and thus payment finality, via costly computations, i.e., “proof-of-work.”

April 16, 2019

Small Business Credit Survey

This report presents national survey findings on business conditions, financial challenges and credit environment from the perspective of small business owners with employees.

April 16, 2019

Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation

The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices.

April 16, 2019

Globally Competitive Texas Exports Sensitive to U.S. Trade Policy

Texas, the nation’s largest exporting state, enjoys a strong position in world trade. The state continues to see exports climb, and it exhibits a manufacturing edge in energy-related products and intermediate goods based on an index of comparative advantage.

April 11, 2019

U.S. Economic Data

Market Value of U.S. Government Debt

For many uses, market value more accurately represents the debt burden faced by the U.S. government than the par value. The par value of government debt, which is reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, reflects interest rates at the time the debt was issued while the market value is adjusted to reflect market interest rates as of the observed period.

April 10, 2019

Modern Refineries, Shale Boom Upend Traditional Oil Price Relationships

Investor returns in the energy sector have lagged behind the broader market for some time. This has led to restraint in capital spending plans for 2019, which may be contributing to a lower rig count and a tepid outlook for employment growth this year.

April 09, 2019

Different crude oils can sell for dramatically different prices with sometimes far-reaching effects on the energy industry—from impacts on oil producers’ production decisions to oil refineries’ profit margins.

April 09, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Output Growth Slows, Outlook Worsens

Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding a revised 2.4 percent in the third quarter.

April 05, 2019

International Economic Data

International House Price Database

The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

April 05, 2019

Texas Economic Activity Stabilizes, but Slower Job Growth Is Ahead

The Austin economy grew moderately in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded but remained below its long-term trend.

April 05, 2019

Output growth in Texas has stabilized after a relatively robust 2018. However, a tight labor market, slowing energy activity and weakening global demand will restrain Texas growth during 2019, an assessment consistent with the Dallas Fed’s outlook for the year.

April 04, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields

We consider the influence of domestic and U.S. macroeconomic news surprises on daily bond yields over the January 1999 to January 2018 period for four advanced Negative Interest Rate Policy economies.

April 03, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Estimating Impulse Response Functions When the Shock Series Is Observed

We compare the finite sample performance of a variety of consistent approaches to estimating Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) in a linear setup when the shock of interest is observed.

April 02, 2019

Risks Abound If China Uses Debt to Stimulate Economy from Current Downturn

Houston job growth, leading and coincident indicators, and oil and fuel prices have improved over the past few months. Mining-related employment continued to grow, and bank lending expanded faster in the region than the nation.

April 02, 2019

The Chinese economy is losing steam. As China considers how to work through its difficulties, its chances of success may depend on how it finances the debt it incurs while attempting to boost economic activity.

April 02, 2019

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

April 01, 2019

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2019

El Paso’s economy continues to expand. While employment contracted in February, jobs rose 1.2 percent year to date. Existing-home sales dipped, while median-home prices inched up in February.

April 01, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index declined 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in January following a 0.7 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

March 29, 2019

The Office of Minority and Women Inclusion

2018 Congressional Report

This report details the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' 2018 performance related to the OMWI provisions of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

March 29, 2019

U.S. Economy

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for January was an annualized 1.1 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for January was -0.7 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 0.8 percent.

March 29, 2019

Global Perspectives: Greg Mankiw on Economic Advice, Climate Change and Trade

The San Antonio economy expanded at a stable rate in February. The unemployment rate declined, and the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though at a rate slightly below the long-term trend.

March 29, 2019

Mankiw and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed some of the things that economists don't understand about politicians (and that politicians don't understand about economists).

March 28, 2019

How Much Do Movers Move Average Wage Growth?

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in February, with payroll employment expanding and unemployment staying low. Looking at the two-month period, employment performance has been healthy—above the metro’s long-run average.

March 27, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Energy sector activity grew modestly in first quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

March 27, 2019

Data from the Current Population Survey, a household survey used to compute the unemployment rate, do not include individuals who change residences. If it could include movers, our previous estimate of 2018 average individual wage growth would increase from 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent or higher.

March 26, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Decelerates

Texas service sector activity growth softened in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

March 26, 2019

Texas economic indicators pointed to moderate economic growth in February. Job growth was near its long-run average, and unemployment remained low.

March 25, 2019

Texas Economy

Position as Top Exporting State Exposes Texas to Shifting Trade Policy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

March 25, 2019

Research Publications

Southwest Economy

The latest issue looks at Texas exports amid shifting trade policy and the state's outlook for growth in 2019. It also includes a Spotlight on Texas residential solar energy, a Q&A with Tom Luce on Texas 2036 and an infographic on the shale revolution's impact on refining.

March 22, 2019

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2019

As the nation's No. 1 exporting state, Texas faces challenges from shifting trade policies, which tend to erode the cost advantages that benefit the state's leading sectors globally.

March 22, 2019

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2019

Snapshot: Economy Booms in Midland–Odessa

The Permian Basin economy, at the heart of U.S. oil production, has boomed as oil output expanded.

March 22, 2019

Texas Economy

Incorporating February job growth of 1.8 percent and a second consecutive increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.5 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.2 to 2.8 percent.

March 22, 2019

Production growth in the Permian Basin continued to rise even as the rig count fell. The gap in prices between West Texas Intermediate (WTI)–Midland and WTI–Cushing closed as transportation constraints eased.

March 22, 2019

Growth in employment and the business-cycle index slowed for Houston at the start of the year. Leading indicators were mixed but largely painted a softer outlook for 2019.

March 19, 2019

The San Antonio economy grew at a steady pace in January. Although the unemployment rate ticked up, the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand at a rate slightly above trend.

March 18, 2019

The Austin economy saw mixed performance in January. The Austin Business-Cycle Index decelerated and remained below its long-term trend.

March 15, 2019

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continued its expansion in January. Job growth was moderate, and the Dallas Business-Cycle Index rose. However, the Fort Worth Business-Cycle Index fell following robust growth in 2018.

March 14, 2019

Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Tool for Capital Account Management

Texas economic indicators improved in January. The state posted solid job growth that was broad based across metros but mixed among sectors. Growth in the business-cycle index continued to decelerate but remained above its long-term trend.

March 11, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

In this paper we construct a small open economy model where the central bank can engage in sterilized foreign exchange intervention.

March 08, 2019

Texas Economy

Incorporating January job growth of 2.6 percent and a rebound in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.5 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.1 to 2.9 percent.

March 08, 2019

Global Perspectives: Richard Clarida on U.S. Monetary Policy

Trade through the port is unchanged, while maquiladora employment picked up in late 2018. Home sales have slowed, but home affordability remains above average in El Paso. Despite the strong dollar, El Paso retail sales were steady in second quarter 2018.

March 07, 2019

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discusses a range of topics, including the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the U.S. fiscal situation and the global role of the dollar.

March 07, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

The Eleventh District economy expanded at a moderate pace. Activity in the manufacturing, housing, and nonfinancial services sectors improved. Loan volumes ticked up, and retail sales grew modestly.

March 06, 2019

Corporate Debt as a Potential Amplifier in a Slowdown

OPEC production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela have helped global oil prices partly recover from 2018 declines this year, and increased pipeline capacity is lifting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices in Midland.

March 05, 2019

In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan focuses on trends in corporate debt growth and credit quality in the U.S. and discusses potential implications for economic conditions and financial stability.

March 05, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford

When focusing on the relevant impulse responses, the evidence for economic and statistically significant macroeconomic effects of tax changes in Mertens and Ravn (2013) remains present for a range of asymptotically valid inference methods.

March 04, 2019

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, December 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in December following a 0.6 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

March 01, 2019

Global Perspectives: John Hess on U.S. Oil Reserves, Climate Change

Production in the Permian Basin continues to grow even as the rig count remains steady. Permian Basin wages were well above the Texas average in December. The tight housing market has led to strong home-price appreciation.

March 01, 2019

Few sectors of the U.S. economy have undergone as radical a transformation in recent years as the energy sector, and few loom as large in the economic fortunes of Texas and the Eleventh District.

February 28, 2019

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

New Mexico posted robust job gains in 2018, while Las Cruces payrolls grew slightly. Home sales posted solid increases in both Las Cruces and the state.

February 27, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at Accelerated Pace

Texas service sector activity accelerated in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

February 26, 2019

Is Wage Growth Higher than We Think?

There is always widespread interest in the degree to which the U.S. labor market generates higher pay for workers. A standard measure of wage growth suggests that this expansion is not improving the standard of living of workers, but our analysis reveals that actual wage growth is understated.

February 26, 2019

Texas Economy

Not Everything Is Bigger in Texas: The Varied Fortunes of Four Smaller Metros

Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

February 25, 2019

While Texas’ major metropolitan areas power the bulk of the state’s commercial activity, some smaller metros have worked to establish their place as part of the state’s economic mosaic.

February 21, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy

During the Great Recession, many central banks lowered their policy rate to its zero lower bound, creating a kink in the policy rule and calling into question linear estimation methods.

February 19, 2019

Changes in Labor Force Participation Help Explain Recent Job Gains

The U.S. labor force participation rate declined following the Great Recession to a low of 62.3 percent in 2015.

February 19, 2019

Dallas Fed Energy Survey Suggests Oil Price Drop Won’t Cause Sector Collapse in 2019

Following a banner year in 2018, will U.S. oil producers retrench and reduce capital spending after the recent double-digit oil price decline? The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey provides some clues about what may be next.

February 14, 2019

Research Department Working Papers

Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials

We show that the oil market has become closer to “one great pool,” in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time.

February 13, 2019

Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment

With long-term interest rates falling and short-term rates rising, there has been increasing talk of a possible yield-curve inversion and speculation about what an inversion might mean for the U.S. economy.

February 12, 2019

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Output Growth Slows in the Fourth Quarter

Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.2 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding 3.4 percent in the third quarter.

February 08, 2019

Global Perspectives: Maya MacGuineas on Stabilizing the Federal Debt

The Austin economy expanded at a healthy pace in December. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend.

February 07, 2019

A good measure of a nation’s ability to repay its obligations is the ratio of the stock of indebtedness to the flow of output produced in a given year. In recent years, this ratio has increased for the U.S. government, raising new questions about how the nation manages a debt burden that is approaching an all-time high.

February 07, 2019

The Neutral Rate of Interest

Crude oil prices rebounded somewhat in January from end-of-year levels, but the rig count slipped on earlier price declines.

February 05, 2019

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

This essay explores a number of the key issues associated with using the neutral rate concept in formulating monetary policy.

February 05, 2019

The Value of Patience

In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan provides his assessment of current economic conditions and implications for monetary policy.

February 05, 2019

Welcome to Dallas Fed Economics

We welcome you to our new endeavor--Dallas Fed Economics. We are starting it to expand our engagement with the public on important economic issues. Dallas Fed Economics will feature posts on a wide range of topics of policy interest.

February 04, 2019

Texas Economic Update

Growth in Texas Economy Downshifts

The Texas economy experienced another downshift in growth over the last two months, although the level of activity remains strong.

February 01, 2019

Notice

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate Delayed

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate, scheduled for release January 31, will be delayed due to the recent partial federal government shutdown.

January 30, 2019

Texas Service Sector Activity Picks Up

In 2018, Permian Basin employment grew 7.5 percent, well above Texas' job growth of 2.4 percent. However, area job growth fell in the last quarter, and the unemployment rate inched up to 2.5 percent in December.

January 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity grew at a faster pace in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

January 29, 2019

Growth in Houston leading and coincident economic indicators weakened in December. Job growth slowed, but the local labor force expanded.

January 28, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

January 28, 2019

El Paso jobs grew 1.5 percent in 2018, on pace with the metro’s long-term average. Steady job gains have boosted the business-cycle index.

January 25, 2019

Growth in the San Antonio economy was soft in December. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated, and the unemployment rate increased.

January 24, 2019

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy ended 2018 on a solid note. Employment growth was robust in December, with DFW adding jobs at its fastest pace in 13 months, and unemployment remained near multiyear lows.

January 24, 2019

Texas economic indicators were mixed in December. The state finished 2018 with strong job growth and continued labor market tightness, but forward-looking indicators suggest that the state’s economic outlook has softened.

January 22, 2019

Texas Economy

Incorporating December job growth of 2.5 percent and a decline in the Texas Leading Index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.1 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.5 to 2.7 percent.

January 18, 2019

Oil sector growth cooled at the end of 2018, and lower oil prices eroded expectations for capital spending in 2019.

January 17, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Greg Armstrong of Houston Named Chair of Dallas Fed Board; Mary Kipp of El Paso Named Deputy Chair

While economic activity remained healthy, growth abated to a more modest pace. A broad-based deceleration was seen across manufacturing, services, retail, and energy. Hiring continued, and widespread labor shortages further elevated wages.

January 16, 2019

News Releases

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has appointed Greg L. Armstrong as chair and Mary E. Kipp as deputy chair of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas board of directors for 2019.

January 14, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR

This paper contributes to the growing Global VAR (GVAR) literature by showing how global and national shocks can be identified within a GVAR framework.

January 11, 2019

The Austin economy grew at a strong pace in November. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded and remained above its long-term trend.

January 10, 2019

In Memoriam: Herb Kelleher

Houston employment and the business-cycle index continue to register healthy growth, and drilling activity has flattened at a high level.

January 09, 2019

We are deeply saddened by the passing of our dear friend and colleague, Herb Kelleher. Herb was the former chairman of the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas as well as the co-founder, former chief executive officer and executive chairman of Southwest Airlines.

January 04, 2019

Growth in the San Antonio economy was moderate in November. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to accelerate, and the unemployment rate was unchanged.

January 04, 2019

Texas Service Sector Activity Decelerates

El Paso payrolls fell in November, but year-to-date employment growth remains near its long-term average of 1.5 percent.

January 03, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Growth in energy sector activity slowed significantly in fourth quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

January 03, 2019

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey reported improved conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

January 02, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity grew at a slower pace in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

January 02, 2019

Notice on Government Shutdown

Federal Reserve Banks do not receive federal appropriations and, thus, are not affected by the government shutdown. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is following normal operating hours.

December 31, 2018

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded at a modest pace. Employment growth was subdued in November, with DFW adding jobs at the slowest pace in seven months.

December 31, 2018

Texas Economy

Argentina’s “Missing Capital” Puzzle and Limited Commitment Constraints

Texas factory activity continued to expand rather modestly in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

December 31, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Capital accumulation in Argentina was slow in the 1990s, despite high total factor productivity (TFP) growth and low international interest rates.

December 28, 2018

The Permian Basin economy remains robust despite the recent large drop in oil prices. Though employment has fallen slightly over the past three months, the Permian’s labor market continues to be tight.

December 28, 2018

Healthy Texas Expansion Beginning to Slow

Texas economic growth moderated in November. The state added jobs at a softer pace, with employment declining in some metros and industries.

December 27, 2018

Texas Economic Update

The Texas economy continues to grow at a solid but slightly slower pace, with job growth broad based across industries and regions.

December 26, 2018

Research Publications

Targeted Search in Matching Markets

We propose a parsimonious matching model where people's choice of whom to meet endogenizes the degree of randomness in matching.

December 24, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Economy Finishes the Year Strong

The U.S. economy continued its expansion in the fourth quarter, fueled in part by strong consumption and rising wage growth. Inflation remained at or around the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

December 24, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's 2019 Growth Outlook Revised Down

Mexico’s economy has grown 2.4 percent this year through the third quarter.

December 24, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, November 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in November, following a 2.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

December 21, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas Top-Ranked State for Firm Relocations

Incorporating a downward revision to second quarter job growth, November job growth of 1.4 percent and a decline in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.4 percent this year (December/December).

December 21, 2018

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2018

Texas is the leading destination for companies relocating from other states. The economic benefits of the moves may be best measured in terms of the ancillary activity generated rather than the benefits directly attributable to the relocations.

December 20, 2018

Community Development Publication

Promising Telehealth Initiatives Highlight the Need to Close Digital Divide

These five case studies examine how access to telehealth can address health disparities in underserved urban and rural communities.

December 14, 2018

Community Development Publication

Small Business Credit Survey: 2018 Report on Employer Firms in Texas

Drawing on a national survey of small business owners, this report examines financial conditions and credit needs of employer firms in Texas.

December 14, 2018

At the Heart of Texas: Cities’ Industry Clusters Drive Growth

The second edition of this special report is a comprehensive look at the industry clusters, history and demographics shaping 12 of Texas' metropolitan areas, four of which are new to the report.

December 12, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 10

Labor Market Not Overly Tight, Demographically Adjusted Measure Shows

Elevated inflation traditionally accompanies prolonged low unemployment rates, such as those currently observed in the U.S. However, price pressures have remained comparatively restrained, prompting further examination.

December 07, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 9

Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy

Emerging economies that borrow in U.S. dollars are sensitive to U.S. monetary policy due to changing exchange rates.

December 07, 2018

Oil prices tumbled in November due to the United States' Iran policy, surging U.S. production, rising inventories and concerns about the global demand outlook.

December 07, 2018

The Austin economy expanded at a strong pace in October. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and continued above its long-term trend.

December 06, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

Growth in economic activity slowed to a moderate pace. A broad-based softening was seen in manufacturing, retail, and housing. Drilling activity increased. Hiring continued, and widespread labor shortages pushed up wages.

December 05, 2018

New Mexico employment is steadily expanding, while Las Cruces jobs remained stagnant in the third quarter and year to date. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the Las Cruces metro posted slower growth in 2017 than in previous years.

December 03, 2018

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, October 2018

El Paso's economy continued to expand in October. Existing-home sales remained near all-time highs, while home-price appreciation was moderate.

November 29, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.2 percent at an annualized rate in October, following a 1.5 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

November 29, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates Slightly

The outlook for Houston softened as leading indicators broadly slowed over the past three months. Revisions to data show that 2018 Houston employment growth has been healthy but not as strong as early estimates suggested.

November 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity grew at a faster pace in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

November 27, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in November, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

November 26, 2018

Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates

The Permian Basin economy remains robust, reaching highs in production, employment and home prices. However, there are signs of moderation.

November 21, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

We estimate the effects of quantitative easing (QE) measures by the ECB and the Federal Reserve on the US dollar-euro exchange rate at frequencies and horizons relevant for policymakers.

November 20, 2018

Inflation and the Gig Economy: Have the Rise of Online Retailing and Self-Employment Disrupted the Phillips Curve?

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained soft in October. The San Antonio Business-Cycle index accelerated, though growth continued to be below its long-term average.

November 20, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

By omitting important structural changes in both goods and labor markets, conventional Phillips Curve models have failed to track how the rise of online retailing has flattened the Phillips Curve and how the rise of the gig economy (self-employment) has lowered the natural rate of unemployment.

November 20, 2018

Mean Group Estimation in Presence of Weakly Cross-Correlated Estimators

Growth in Dallas-Fort Worth remained widespread and brisk, with the metro area adding 9,500 jobs. Unemployment fell, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes posted solid and above-trend growth.

November 20, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper extends the mean group estimator for random coefficient panel data models by allowing the underlying individual estimators to be weakly cross-correlated.

November 19, 2018

Rationally Inattentive Consumer: An Experiment

Texas economic growth remained healthy in October. The state added jobs at a strong pace, with the expansion widespread across metros and most industries.

November 19, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

This paper presents a laboratory experiment that directly tests the theoretical predictions of consumption choices under rational inattention.

November 19, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Economy Posts Strong Third-Quarter Growth

Mexico's economic output recovered sharply in the third quarter, rising an annualized 3.6 percent after contracting in the second quarter. The consensus growth forecast for 2018 held steady in October at 2.1 percent.

November 19, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Capital Accumulation and Dynamic Gains from Trade

We compute welfare gains from trade in a dynamic, multicountry model with capital accumulation and trade imbalances.

November 16, 2018

Community Development Publications

Preparing Workers for the Expanding Digital Economy

This book chapter explores how digital inclusion increases access to jobs, economic opportunity and upward mobility.

November 16, 2018

Texas Economy

Global Economy Continues to Grow amid Downside Risks

Incorporating October employment growth of 2.7 percent, an upward revision of job growth in September and a slight decline in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.9 percent this year (December/December)

November 16, 2018

International Economic Update

Global economic growth remains solid, although the pace is moderating as significant downside risks remain for both advanced and emerging economies.

November 14, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Texas Economy Continues Expansion but Shows Signs of Cooling

Texas economic growth remains robust but is showing signs of moderating. While many major Texas metros saw employment gains in the third quarter, state job growth was slower compared with the first half of the year.

November 14, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, September 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.5 percent at an annualized rate in September, following a 1.3 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

November 13, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Expansion Remains on Solid Footing

The U.S. economy has now expanded for 112 consecutive months, the second-longest stretch on record, and recent data point to continued growth due to strong consumer spending, robust employment growth and elevated business and consumer confidence.

November 13, 2018

The Austin economy expanded at a strong pace in September. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and continued above its long-term trend.

November 02, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at a Slower Pace

Houston economic conditions remain mostly positive, as does the overall outlook for the area. The business-cycle index continues to exhibit strong growth, and the Houston Leading Index is accelerating.

October 31, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity continued to grow in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

October 30, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

October 29, 2018

Structural Change and Global Trade

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in September. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated while remaining below its long-term average.

October 26, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 58 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 79 percent in 2015. In a trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences and input-output linkages, we find that such structural change has restrained the growth in world trade to GDP by 16 percentage points over this period.

October 26, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective

This paper explores the relationship between greater trade openness (globalization) and the observed shifts in international business cycles.

October 25, 2018

Growth in El Paso remains broad based, with the metro area adding jobs at a 3.3 percent annualized rate in September. Home sales are at an all-time high, while home price appreciation is moderate.

October 25, 2018

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth moderated in September. Payroll employment expanded at a slower pace in the third quarter than the second.

October 24, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

The Neutral Rate of Interest

Economic activity expanded at a solid pace. Healthy growth continued in manufacturing, retail and nonfinancial services. Loan demand increased further while home sales were flat. Capacity constraints restrained growth in the energy sector.

October 24, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

This essay explores a number of the key issues associated with using the neutral rate concept in formulating monetary policy.

October 24, 2018

The Texas economy grew at a moderate pace in September. The state added jobs at a slower pace than in August, and unemployment dipped to a record low.

October 23, 2018

The Permian Basin economy remains robust. Employment growth has moderated in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains at historical lows.

October 22, 2018

Texas Economy

Slow Post-Financial Crisis Recovery and Monetary Policy

Incorporating September employment growth of 1.7 percent and moderate growth in the Texas Leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.7 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.2 percent.

October 19, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Post-financial crisis recoveries tend to be slow and be accompanied by slowdowns in TFP and permanent losses in GDP. To prevent them, how should monetary policy be conducted?

October 19, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies: Policy Proposals

This paper traces the evolution of fiscal institutions of Resource-Rich Arab Economies over time since their pre-oil days, through the discovery of oil to their build-up of oil exports.

October 18, 2018

Community Development Publication

Opportunity Zones in Texas: Promise and Peril

This article explores the implications of a new tax incentive program to spur investment in low-income communities.

October 17, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Global Trends in Interest Rates

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades.

October 16, 2018

Signals have been recently mixed for the oil and gas industry. Pipeline limitations continue to take center stage, slowing production growth. Mining employment growth decelerated over the summer.

October 05, 2018

Mexico's 2018 Growth Outlook Revised Down Slightly

Austin economic growth was moderate in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index stabilized but was below its long-term trend. Job growth rebounded after a sharp drop in July, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly.

October 04, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico’s consensus growth forecast for 2018 worsened slightly from 2.3 percent in July to 2.1 percent in August. The 2019 forecast held steady at 2.2 percent.

October 04, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Texas Economy Keeps Growing but Signs of Supply-Side Constraints Emerge

The regional economy continues to post strong growth and outpace the nation. Year to date, Texas employment growth is an annualized 3 percent, well above the U.S. growth of 1.7 percent.

October 03, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Economy Expected to Remain Strong Through Year-End

The U.S. economy continued to expand at a brisk pace in the third quarter, based on recent data releases.

October 03, 2018

International Economic Update

Emerging-Market Currencies Suffer as Advanced Economies Tighten Policy

The global economy is faced with heightened economic uncertainty due to trade-related concerns and tightening monetary policy in advanced economies adversely affecting emerging economies.

October 03, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Explosive Dynamics in House Prices? An Exploration of Financial Market Spillovers in Housing Markets Around the World

We investigate the emergence of explosiveness in the dynamics of real house prices and the role played by asset market spillovers.

October 02, 2018

Current Account Adjustment and Retained Earnings

Growth in El Paso remains broad based. Year to date, the metro has added jobs at a 2.0 percent annualized rate, above its long-run average of 1.5 percent. Home sales are at an all-time high, while home-price appreciation is moderate.

October 01, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper develops a formal strategy to calculate current accounts with retained earnings on equity investment and analyzes their adjustment during the global financial crisis.

October 01, 2018

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey noted some easing of drought conditions across several regions of the Eleventh District.

October 01, 2018

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Energy sector activity maintained its strong momentum in third quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

October 01, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.3 percent at an annualized rate in August, following a 1.6 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

September 28, 2018

Houston's economy continues to grow at a healthy pace despite signs of a slowdown in its core energy-related sectors. Employment and business-cycle indicators are increasing, and loan growth at Houston-based banks continues to outperform the nation. Overall, the outlook remains positive.

September 28, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in August. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated, holding below its long-term average.

September 27, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates

Growth in Dallas–Fort Worth remained broad based and brisk, with the metro area adding jobs at a 3.0 percent annualized rate—well above its long-run average.

September 25, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity accelerated in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

September 25, 2018

Texas’ economic expansion accelerated in August after moderating in July. Employment growth strengthened and was widespread across sectors and industries. The Texas Leading Index dipped but remained elevated, and energy sector indicators were mostly flat. Exports rose in July, and the volume of loans held by Texas banks expanded in the second quarter.

September 24, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

September 24, 2018

Texas Economy

Incorporating August employment growth of 4.6 percent, a revision in first-quarter job growth due to early benchmarking, and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.8 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 3.3 percent.

September 21, 2018

New Technology Boosts Texas Firms' Output, Alters Worker Mix

Overall, economic indicators show a robust Permian Basin economy with expanding employment and a tight labor market. Though oil production continues to rise, drilling activity has leveled off somewhat amid concerns over pipeline capacity.

September 21, 2018

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2018

A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of manufacturing and services firms in Texas found that as companies adopt new technologies, the number of workers is little changed though the employees’ skill levels shift.

September 21, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

This paper quantifies the drivers of euro area and U.S. economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated three-region DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities.

September 12, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Economic activity expanded at a solid pace. Manufacturing and service sectors sustained a healthy pace of growth, while activity in the housing and energy sectors was flat to down. Retail spending accelerated, as did loan demand.

September 12, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market.

September 11, 2018

Austin economic growth weakened in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index performed well below its long-term trend. The unemployment rate dipped and job growth softened, but wages inched up.

September 07, 2018

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2018

Pipeline limitations are driving down local prices for oil and natural gas, causing drilling activity to flatten and the inventory of uncompleted wells to rise in the Permian Basin. Texas mining employment growth also slowed in July.

September 06, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.5 percent at an annualized rate in July, following a 1.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

August 30, 2018

Finite-Order VAR Representation of Linear Rational Expectations Models: With Some Lessons for Monetary Policy

Softer employment growth in July slowed the business-cycle index to a more modest above-trend growth rate. Revisions to employment data dulled Houston’s stellar job growth in the six months following Hurricane Harvey.

August 29, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper considers the characterization via finite-order VARs of the solution of a large class of linear rational expectations (LRE) models.

August 29, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

This paper isolates the relative importance of global, national and region-specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual U.S. states and metro areas.

August 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand

Texas service sector activity continued to increase in August, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

August 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity maintained its strong momentum in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

August 27, 2018

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in July. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though it remains below its long-term average.

August 23, 2018

Employment and the rig count growth have slowed over the last three months in the Permian Basin but overall, economic indicators show a robust economy.

August 22, 2018

A strong labor market is boosting the El Paso economy. Year-to-date jobs gains have been broad based, and trade through the El Paso port of entry is up. Housing affordability remains above average.

August 22, 2018

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

Economic expansion in Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) remained broad based and swift, with the July jobs report showing the metro area growing at a 3.0 percent annualized rate—well above its long-run average.

August 21, 2018

Employment levels inched up in Las Cruces in the second quarter, while the state posted much stronger growth. Trade through the port is rising, and the rig count is well above year-ago levels.

August 21, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

Where We Stand: Assessment of Economic Conditions and Implications for Monetary Policy

The purpose of this essay is to discuss economic conditions in the Eleventh District and the U.S. It discusses the implications of this assessment for the stance of monetary policy in the U.S.

August 21, 2018