Dallas Fed Recent Additions

Global Perspectives: Maya MacGuineas on Stabilizing the Federal Debt

The Austin economy expanded at a healthy pace in December. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend.

February 07, 2019

A good measure of a nation’s ability to repay its obligations is the ratio of the stock of indebtedness to the flow of output produced in a given year. In recent years, this ratio has increased for the U.S. government, raising new questions about how the nation manages a debt burden that is approaching an all-time high.

February 07, 2019

Welcome to Dallas Fed Economics

Crude oil prices rebounded somewhat in January from end-of-year levels, but the rig count slipped on earlier price declines.

February 05, 2019

The Value of Patience

In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan provides his assessment of current economic conditions and implications for monetary policy.

February 05, 2019

We welcome you to our new endeavor--Dallas Fed Economics. We are starting it to expand our engagement with the public on important economic issues. Dallas Fed Economics will feature posts on a wide range of topics of policy interest.

February 04, 2019

Texas Economic Update

Growth in Texas Economy Downshifts

The Texas economy experienced another downshift in growth over the last two months, although the level of activity remains strong.

February 01, 2019

Notice

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate Delayed

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate, scheduled for release January 31, will be delayed due to the recent partial federal government shutdown.

January 30, 2019

Texas Service Sector Activity Picks Up

In 2018, Permian Basin employment grew 7.5 percent, well above Texas' job growth of 2.4 percent. However, area job growth fell in the last quarter, and the unemployment rate inched up to 2.5 percent in December.

January 30, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity grew at a faster pace in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

January 29, 2019

Growth in Houston leading and coincident economic indicators weakened in December. Job growth slowed, but the local labor force expanded.

January 28, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

January 28, 2019

El Paso jobs grew 1.5 percent in 2018, on pace with the metro’s long-term average. Steady job gains have boosted the business-cycle index.

January 25, 2019

Growth in the San Antonio economy was soft in December. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated, and the unemployment rate increased.

January 24, 2019

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy ended 2018 on a solid note. Employment growth was robust in December, with DFW adding jobs at its fastest pace in 13 months, and unemployment remained near multiyear lows.

January 24, 2019

Texas economic indicators were mixed in December. The state finished 2018 with strong job growth and continued labor market tightness, but forward-looking indicators suggest that the state’s economic outlook has softened.

January 22, 2019

Texas Economy

Incorporating December job growth of 2.5 percent and a decline in the Texas Leading Index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.1 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.5 to 2.7 percent.

January 18, 2019

Eleventh District Beige Book

Oil sector growth cooled at the end of 2018, and lower oil prices eroded expectations for capital spending in 2019.

January 17, 2019

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

While economic activity remained healthy, growth abated to a more modest pace. A broad-based deceleration was seen across manufacturing, services, retail, and energy. Hiring continued, and widespread labor shortages further elevated wages.

January 16, 2019

News Releases

Greg Armstrong of Houston Named Chair of Dallas Fed Board; Mary Kipp of El Paso Named Deputy Chair

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has appointed Greg L. Armstrong as chair and Mary E. Kipp as deputy chair of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas board of directors for 2019.

January 14, 2019

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR

This paper contributes to the growing Global VAR (GVAR) literature by showing how global and national shocks can be identified within a GVAR framework.

January 11, 2019

International Economic Data

International House Price Database

The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

January 10, 2019

The Austin economy grew at a strong pace in November. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded and remained above its long-term trend.

January 10, 2019

In Memoriam: Herb Kelleher

Houston employment and the business-cycle index continue to register healthy growth, and drilling activity has flattened at a high level.

January 09, 2019

We are deeply saddened by the passing of our dear friend and colleague, Herb Kelleher. Herb was the former chairman of the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas as well as the co-founder, former chief executive officer and executive chairman of Southwest Airlines.

January 04, 2019

Growth in the San Antonio economy was moderate in November. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to accelerate, and the unemployment rate was unchanged.

January 04, 2019

Texas Service Sector Activity Decelerates

El Paso payrolls fell in November, but year-to-date employment growth remains near its long-term average of 1.5 percent.

January 03, 2019

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Growth in energy sector activity slowed significantly in fourth quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

January 03, 2019

Regional Economy

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey reported improved conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.

January 02, 2019

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity grew at a slower pace in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

January 02, 2019

Notice on Government Shutdown

Federal Reserve Banks do not receive federal appropriations and, thus, are not affected by the government shutdown. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is following normal operating hours.

December 31, 2018

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded at a modest pace. Employment growth was subdued in November, with DFW adding jobs at the slowest pace in seven months.

December 31, 2018

Texas Economy

Argentina’s “Missing Capital” Puzzle and Limited Commitment Constraints

Texas factory activity continued to expand rather modestly in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

December 31, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Capital accumulation in Argentina was slow in the 1990s, despite high total factor productivity (TFP) growth and low international interest rates.

December 28, 2018

The Permian Basin economy remains robust despite the recent large drop in oil prices. Though employment has fallen slightly over the past three months, the Permian’s labor market continues to be tight.

December 28, 2018

Healthy Texas Expansion Beginning to Slow

Texas economic growth moderated in November. The state added jobs at a softer pace, with employment declining in some metros and industries.

December 27, 2018

Texas Economic Update

The Texas economy continues to grow at a solid but slightly slower pace, with job growth broad based across industries and regions.

December 26, 2018

Research Publications

Targeted Search in Matching Markets

We propose a parsimonious matching model where people's choice of whom to meet endogenizes the degree of randomness in matching.

December 24, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Economy Finishes the Year Strong

The U.S. economy continued its expansion in the fourth quarter, fueled in part by strong consumption and rising wage growth. Inflation remained at or around the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

December 24, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's 2019 Growth Outlook Revised Down

Mexico’s economy has grown 2.4 percent this year through the third quarter.

December 24, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, November 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in November, following a 2.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

December 21, 2018

Texas Economy

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Incorporating a downward revision to second quarter job growth, November job growth of 1.4 percent and a decline in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.4 percent this year (December/December).

December 21, 2018

U.S. Economy

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for November was an annualized 2.4 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for November was 0.7 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.8 percent.

December 21, 2018

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2018

Texas Top-Ranked State for Firm Relocations

Texas is the leading destination for companies relocating from other states. The economic benefits of the moves may be best measured in terms of the ancillary activity generated rather than the benefits directly attributable to the relocations.

December 20, 2018

Community Development Publication

Promising Telehealth Initiatives Highlight the Need to Close Digital Divide

These five case studies examine how access to telehealth can address health disparities in underserved urban and rural communities.

December 14, 2018

Community Development Publication

Small Business Credit Survey: Report on Employer Firms in Texas

Drawing on a national survey of small business owners, this report examines financial conditions and credit needs of employer firms in Texas.

December 14, 2018

At the Heart of Texas: Cities’ Industry Clusters Drive Growth

The second edition of this special report is a comprehensive look at the industry clusters, history and demographics shaping 12 of Texas' metropolitan areas, four of which are new to the report.

December 12, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 10

Labor Market Not Overly Tight, Demographically Adjusted Measure Shows

Elevated inflation traditionally accompanies prolonged low unemployment rates, such as those currently observed in the U.S. However, price pressures have remained comparatively restrained, prompting further examination.

December 07, 2018

Economic Letter, Vol. 13, No. 9

Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy

Emerging economies that borrow in U.S. dollars are sensitive to U.S. monetary policy due to changing exchange rates.

December 07, 2018

Oil prices tumbled in November due to the United States' Iran policy, surging U.S. production, rising inventories and concerns about the global demand outlook.

December 07, 2018

Eleventh District Beige Book

The Austin economy expanded at a strong pace in October. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and continued above its long-term trend.

December 06, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Growth in economic activity slowed to a moderate pace. A broad-based softening was seen in manufacturing, retail, and housing. Drilling activity increased. Hiring continued, and widespread labor shortages pushed up wages.

December 05, 2018

Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators

New Mexico employment is steadily expanding, while Las Cruces jobs remained stagnant in the third quarter and year to date. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the Las Cruces metro posted slower growth in 2017 than in previous years.

December 03, 2018

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, October 2018

El Paso's economy continued to expand in October. Existing-home sales remained near all-time highs, while home-price appreciation was moderate.

November 29, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.2 percent at an annualized rate in October, following a 1.5 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

November 29, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates Slightly

The outlook for Houston softened as leading indicators broadly slowed over the past three months. Revisions to data show that 2018 Houston employment growth has been healthy but not as strong as early estimates suggested.

November 28, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity grew at a faster pace in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

November 27, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in November, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

November 26, 2018

Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates

The Permian Basin economy remains robust, reaching highs in production, employment and home prices. However, there are signs of moderation.

November 21, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

We estimate the effects of quantitative easing (QE) measures by the ECB and the Federal Reserve on the US dollar-euro exchange rate at frequencies and horizons relevant for policymakers.

November 20, 2018

Inflation and the Gig Economy: Have the Rise of Online Retailing and Self-Employment Disrupted the Phillips Curve?

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained soft in October. The San Antonio Business-Cycle index accelerated, though growth continued to be below its long-term average.

November 20, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

By omitting important structural changes in both goods and labor markets, conventional Phillips Curve models have failed to track how the rise of online retailing has flattened the Phillips Curve and how the rise of the gig economy (self-employment) has lowered the natural rate of unemployment.

November 20, 2018

Mean Group Estimation in Presence of Weakly Cross-Correlated Estimators

Growth in Dallas-Fort Worth remained widespread and brisk, with the metro area adding 9,500 jobs. Unemployment fell, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes posted solid and above-trend growth.

November 20, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

This paper extends the mean group estimator for random coefficient panel data models by allowing the underlying individual estimators to be weakly cross-correlated.

November 19, 2018

Rationally Inattentive Consumer: An Experiment

Texas economic growth remained healthy in October. The state added jobs at a strong pace, with the expansion widespread across metros and most industries.

November 19, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

This paper presents a laboratory experiment that directly tests the theoretical predictions of consumption choices under rational inattention.

November 19, 2018

Mexico Economic Update

Mexico's Economy Posts Strong Third-Quarter Growth

Mexico's economic output recovered sharply in the third quarter, rising an annualized 3.6 percent after contracting in the second quarter. The consensus growth forecast for 2018 held steady in October at 2.1 percent.

November 19, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Capital Accumulation and Dynamic Gains from Trade

We compute welfare gains from trade in a dynamic, multicountry model with capital accumulation and trade imbalances.

November 16, 2018

Community Development Publications

Preparing Workers for the Expanding Digital Economy

This book chapter explores how digital inclusion increases access to jobs, economic opportunity and upward mobility.

November 16, 2018

Texas Economy

Global Economy Continues to Grow amid Downside Risks

Incorporating October employment growth of 2.7 percent, an upward revision of job growth in September and a slight decline in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.9 percent this year (December/December)

November 16, 2018

International Economic Update

Global economic growth remains solid, although the pace is moderating as significant downside risks remain for both advanced and emerging economies.

November 14, 2018

Texas Economic Update

Texas Economy Continues Expansion but Shows Signs of Cooling

Texas economic growth remains robust but is showing signs of moderating. While many major Texas metros saw employment gains in the third quarter, state job growth was slower compared with the first half of the year.

November 14, 2018

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, September 2018

The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.5 percent at an annualized rate in September, following a 1.3 percent annualized increase a month earlier.

November 13, 2018

U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Expansion Remains on Solid Footing

The U.S. economy has now expanded for 112 consecutive months, the second-longest stretch on record, and recent data point to continued growth due to strong consumer spending, robust employment growth and elevated business and consumer confidence.

November 13, 2018

The Austin economy expanded at a strong pace in September. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and continued above its long-term trend.

November 02, 2018

Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at a Slower Pace

Houston economic conditions remain mostly positive, as does the overall outlook for the area. The business-cycle index continues to exhibit strong growth, and the Houston Leading Index is accelerating.

October 31, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas service sector activity continued to grow in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

October 30, 2018

Texas Economy

Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

October 29, 2018

Structural Change and Global Trade

Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in September. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated while remaining below its long-term average.

October 26, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 58 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 79 percent in 2015. In a trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences and input-output linkages, we find that such structural change has restrained the growth in world trade to GDP by 16 percentage points over this period.

October 26, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective

This paper explores the relationship between greater trade openness (globalization) and the observed shifts in international business cycles.

October 25, 2018

Growth in El Paso remains broad based, with the metro area adding jobs at a 3.3 percent annualized rate in September. Home sales are at an all-time high, while home price appreciation is moderate.

October 25, 2018

Eleventh District Beige Book

Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth moderated in September. Payroll employment expanded at a slower pace in the third quarter than the second.

October 24, 2018

Reports on Regional Economic Activity

Economic activity expanded at a solid pace. Healthy growth continued in manufacturing, retail and nonfinancial services. Loan demand increased further while home sales were flat. Capacity constraints restrained growth in the energy sector.

October 24, 2018

Essay by President Robert S. Kaplan

The Neutral Rate of Interest

This essay explores a number of the key issues associated with using the neutral rate concept in formulating monetary policy.

October 24, 2018

The Texas economy grew at a moderate pace in September. The state added jobs at a slower pace than in August, and unemployment dipped to a record low.

October 23, 2018

The Permian Basin economy remains robust. Employment growth has moderated in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains at historical lows.

October 22, 2018

Texas Economy

Slow Post-Financial Crisis Recovery and Monetary Policy

Incorporating September employment growth of 1.7 percent and moderate growth in the Texas Leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.7 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.2 percent.

October 19, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Post-financial crisis recoveries tend to be slow and be accompanied by slowdowns in TFP and permanent losses in GDP. To prevent them, how should monetary policy be conducted?

October 19, 2018

Globalization Institute Working Paper

Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies: Policy Proposals

This paper traces the evolution of fiscal institutions of Resource-Rich Arab Economies over time since their pre-oil days, through the discovery of oil to their build-up of oil exports.

October 18, 2018

Community Development Publication

Opportunity Zones in Texas: Promise and Peril

This article explores the implications of a new tax incentive program to spur investment in low-income communities.

October 17, 2018

Research Department Working Papers

Global Trends in Interest Rates

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades.

October 16, 2018

Signals have been recently mixed for the oil and gas industry. Pipeline limitations continue to take center stage, slowing production growth. Mining employment growth decelerated over the summer.

October 05, 2018