Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

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Comments from survey respondents

Survey participants are given the opportunity to submit comments on current issues that may be affecting their businesses. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• Overall uncertainty about the strength of the economy is our largest concern. We believe the risk of a recession has increased, although it is hard to quantify. Lower economic opportunities, especially for younger people, is putting downward pressure on our future sales.

• We are considering closing our company at the end of the year and filing for bankruptcy. We have had a huge drop in sales, and I think it's due to the loss of government funding. I don't think I can recover the company from it.

• Our sales outlook is slightly down for 2026.
• Customers are delaying projects to 2026, and requests for quotes have decreased.
• Our customers want to buy, but they lack cash on hand. Multiple competitor closures are funneling demand, but our customers lack liquidity to fund required deposits and interim payments.

• There’s a slowdown of commercial construction bid requests.

• Sales have been strong and steady over the past few months. We hope this trend continues.
• The free market is prevailing despite the central planners' well-intentioned but misguided tariff policies.
• Up and down, back and forth. We are thankful for the work, but the waves continue.
• We expect some gain as well as some loss going forward in 2026 and through the remainder of the current year. We do believe the good will outweigh the bad overall. The DFW area continues to thrive, Texas remains a good place to do business, and the U.S. remains favorable for business as opposed to many world markets. We're thankful we are where we are─geographically and economically.

• Tariffs. We manufacture in the U.S., but input materials come from China. We don't have $600 million to get relief from tariffs like some companies do.

• Business is steady at very slow; no uptick in sight at this time.

• We suspect other countries, including Mexico, Vietnam and Cambodia are cheating and not paying full Section 232 tariffs on aluminum-extruded products coming into the U.S.  This has been reported to the Commerce Department. They are producing two invoices, one for the raw aluminum and another for the other portions of their prices resulting in not paying the full Section 232. If this is allowed to continue our industry will lose jobs and shutter equipment. Most of the foreign countries are subsidizing exports to the U.S. to the detriment of our industry.

• We have gotten very slow and we worry about the general state of our industry. We have a few large jobs that are keeping people busy in the plant, but soon if things don't change there will need to be some significant reduction in hours worked on the plant floor. There is just not much going on right now, and we believe it’s all tied to the chaos and uncertainty coming from Washington. We are hearing about significant price increases on materials coming soon due to the effect of tariffs.
• Tariff costs (a tax) are having an impact of slowing down economic activity in all sectors. It’s all to do with economic uncertainty.

• We are very unsure of how the holiday season will play out. Input prices continue to increase as duties and tariffs take effect and remain in place. We are unsure of demand, and we will also need to increase our prices due to rising costs.

• The interest rate reduction is positive. There’s a need to improve the government shutdown and trade turmoil, and the outlook would be very promising.
• Continued volatility with import tariffs and interest rates continue to stifle the trucking market. Trucking companies continue to struggle, and there is a regular cadence of bankruptcies being reported.
• Business is up, yet we are also affected by the government shutdown in our ability to work with regulators to approve next steps.

Special questions

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on credit conditions. Results below include responses from participants of all three surveys: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and Texas Retail Outlook Survey. View individual survey results.