Economists

Karel Mertens

Senior Vice President and Director of Research
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Karel Mertens Karel Mertens is director of research and senior vice president in charge of the Statistics Department.

He is responsible for leading the Dallas Fed’s effort to grow research thought leadership, advise on matters related to monetary policy, and guide Statistics Department efforts to collect and analyze data from across the Eleventh Federal Reserve District to better inform monetary policy and economic research.

His research interests include business cycles, fiscal policy, banking and monetary economics, empirical macroeconomics and time series econometrics. His recent work focuses on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and credit policies.

Mertens is a research fellow at the Center of Economic Policy Research and a former research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Prior to joining the Bank in 2017, he was an associate professor of economics at Cornell University.

Mertens is a native of Belgium and holds a Licentiaat in economics from Ghent University, an MSc in economics from the London School of Economics and a PhD in economics from the European University Institute.

Publications

“Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak,” with Alexander Bilk and Adam Blandin, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics, vol. 15, no. 4, October 2023, pp. 1–39. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210061.
“Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index,” with Daniel J. Lewis, James H. Stock and Mihir Trivedi, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 37, no. 4, June 2022, pp. 667–87. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2873.
“The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply,” with Morten O. Ravn, American Economic Review, vol. 109, no. 7, July 2019, pp. 2679–91. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180707.
“Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence,” with José Luis Montiel Olea, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 133, no. 4, November 2018, pp. 1803–84. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy008.
See also: NBER Working Paper no. 19171, June 2013, revised September 2017.
“The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar U.S. Housing Credit Policy,” with Andrew J. Fieldhouse and Morten O. Ravn, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 133, no. 3, August 2018, pp. 1503–60. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy002.
See also: NBER Working Paper no. 23154, February 2017, revised July 2017.
“A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers,” with Morten O. Ravn, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 68, December 2014, pp. S1–S19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.04.004.
“Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap,” with Morten O. Ravn, The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 81, no. 4, October 2014, pp. 1637–67. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdu016.
“The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States,” with Morten O. Ravn, American Economic Review, vol. 103, no. 4, June 2013, pp. 1212–47. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.4.1212.
“Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks,” with Morten O. Ravn, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, vol. 4, no. 2, May 2012, pp. 145–81. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.2.145.
See also: NBER Working Paper no. 16289, August 2010.
“Leverage and the Financial Accelerator in a Liquidity Trap,” with Morten O. Ravn, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, vol. 101, no. 3, May 2011, pp. 413–6. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.3.413.
“Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks,” with Morten O. Ravn, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 14, no. 1, January 2011, pp. 27-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2010.07.004.
“Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach,” with Morten O. Ravn, The Economic Journal, vol. 120, no. 544, May 2010, pp. 393-413. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02361.x.
“Business Cycle Analysis and VARMA Models,” with Christian Kascha, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 33, no. 2, February 2009, pp. 267-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2008.05.006.
See also: Bank of Norway Working Paper 2008/5, April 2008.
“Deposit Rate Ceilings and Monetary Transmission in the US,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 55, no. 7, October 2008, pp. 1290-302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.08.007.

Published Discussions

“State-Level Implications of Federal Tax Policies: Comments,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 105, August 2019, pp. 91–3. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.04.004.
“Comment on ‘Macroeconomic Effects of the 2017 Tax Reform’,” by Robert J. Barro and Jason Furman Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2018, no. 1, Spring 2018, pp. 257–345.

Working Papers

The Social Returns to Public R&D Andrew J. Fieldhouse and Karel MertensFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2519May 2025.
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ronald Mau, Karel Mertens, Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing ZhouFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2407October 2024.
A Narrative Analysis of Federal Appropriations for Research and Development Andrew J. Fieldhouse and Karel MertensFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2316December 2023.
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks Andrew J. Fieldhouse and Karel MertensFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2305 (Revised November 2024)May 2023.
A Robust Test for Weak Instruments for 2SLS with Multiple Endogenous Regressors Daniel J. Lewis and Karel MertensFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2208 (Revised September 2024, new title)June 2022.
Dynamic Identification Using System Projections on Instrumental Variables Daniel J. Lewis and Karel MertensFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2204 (Revised July 2024)March 2022.
Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel MertensFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2017 (Revised February 2021)June 2020.
Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Christoffer Koch, Evan Koenig, Karel Mertens, Anthony Murphy and Kei-Mu YiFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2014 (Revised June 2020, new title)May 2020.
Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index Daniel J. Lewis, Karel Mertens, James H. Stock and Mihir TrivediFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2011 (Revised March 2021, new title)April 2020.
Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations? Daniel J. Lewis, Christos Makridis and Karel MertensFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 1906 (Revised January 2020)September 2019.

“The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford,” with Morten O. Ravn, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 1805, May 2018.
“The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 1803, March 2018.
“A Narrative Analysis of Mortgage Asset Purchases by Federal Agencies," with Andrew J. Fieldhouse, NBER Working Paper no. 23165, February 2017, revised July 2017.
“Credit Channels in a Liquidity Trap,” with Morten O. Ravn, March 2011.
“Regime Switching Interest Rates and Fluctuations in Emerging Markets,” with Bertrand Gruss, June 2009, revised December 2010.
“The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops,” CAE Working Paper no. 07-10, July 2007.

Dallas Fed Publications

The labor market may be tighter than the level of employment suggests Robert S. Kaplan, Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Marc P. Giannoni and Karel MertensDallas Fed EconomicsMay 27, 2021.
Cost of Texas’ 2021 deep freeze justifies weatherization Garrett Golding, Anil Kumar and Karel MertensDallas Fed EconomicsApril 15, 2021.
For many, work-from-home arrangements likely to outlast pandemic Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel MertensDallas Fed EconomicsMarch 30, 2021.
Commuting patterns during COVID-19 endure; minorities less likely to work from home Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel MertensDallas Fed EconomicsSeptember 1, 2020.
Real-time population survey suggests U.S. job losses slowed in early May Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel MertensDallas Fed EconomicsMay 22, 2020.
Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index gives insight into COVID-19’s economic impact Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Christoffer Koch, Evan Koenig, Karel Mertens, Anthony Murphy and Kei-Mu YiDallas Fed EconomicsMay 21, 2020.
Real-time survey to provide timelier labor market data in era of COVID-19 Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel MertensDallas Fed EconomicsMay 15, 2020.
Oil and gas sector increasingly influences U.S. business fixed investment Karel Mertens, Grant Strickler and Martin StuermerDallas Fed EconomicsSeptember 24, 2019.
U.S. tax cuts boost economy—but for how long? Karel MertensDallas Fed EconomicsJune 4, 2019.

Other Works

“Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks,” with Morten O. Ravn, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, May 2011, pp. 41–76.
“The Research Agenda: Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn on Fiscal Policy, Anticipation Effects, Expectations and Crisis,” with Morten O. Ravn, Economic Dynamics Newsletter, vol. 12, no. 2, April 2011.