Agricultural Survey

Quarterly comments

District bankers were asked for additional comments concerning agricultural land values and credit conditions. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• [It has been a] very good summer moisture wise. Crop [yields] will be slightly above average, and we will have less irrigation cost due to rainfall. Cattle market continues to drive loan demand due to high cost of replacements.

• Cattle returns have been very good. However, inflated prices may impact stocking rates.
• Irrigated land sales are much higher.

• Farmers and ranchers in our area have experienced what may be one of the most favorable summers on record in terms of weather. Ranchers continue to benefit from exceptionally strong markets, selling calves of all sizes at record prices. Meanwhile, wheat farmers are preparing to plant under excellent conditions. However, many are reconsidering harvesting wheat for grain due to persistently low market prices. For most, penciling out a profit from grain production is proving to be an increasingly difficult task.
• Crops are in fair to good condition for dryland and good for irrigated. It is currently too dry to plant any type of fall grazing, and pastures are in need of rain in our area.

• Dry weather pattern in August and September. Lack of rain will affect cotton yields. Commodity prices on cotton and grains are low but cattle market continues to set a record. I do expect a seasonal price adjustment and maybe more. I am encouraging producers to use some type of price protection at these cattle prices.
• The cotton crop is looking decent as we have seen a fair amount of rainfall and milder summer temperatures than we have seen over the past couple of growing seasons. The milo crop also performed well across the big country, benefiting from the current weather pattern in the area.

• Corn crop has very little left in the fields, average yield reported. Cotton is being poisoned with some cotton harvest taking place in the lower Brazos bottom. Milo harvest complete with average yields. Timely rains have kept pastures in very good condition through early September. Hay production has been above average with several hay fields not being harvested due to the overabundance of hay.

• Although we are getting strong reports on yields of row crop, repayment speeds have been relatively slow as farmers are holding crops longer in hopes that commodity prices will improve. Positive news from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act for increased farm safety nets offers some stability to future farm incomes, but farmers will struggle to prepare 2026 season budgets with continued increase in costs, weak commodity futures and carrying costs of this year’s crop. Farm carryovers are anticipated to increase from the prior year. Diversified operations will still see stable incomes, but borrowers with minimal equity positions or large debt costs may not farm in 2026. Some farmers will need emergency government assistance to continue operating. There is still strong demand for Ag real estate, particularly pastureland, as cattle price trends continue to increase on low cow inventory numbers. Summer heat showers have remained consistent to provide strong summer pasture and demand for replacement females has been strong. There is a mixed bag between farmers and ranchers; farmers are seeing weaker income while ranchers are seeing stronger incomes. Demand for loans on both should remain strong as farmers may need larger operating lines to offset costs, may carry multiyear lines, or may have carryovers while ranchers may utilize financing to increase herd size.

• Financing of feedlot cattle is slowing down in this area.
• Sunflower, sorghum, corn, cotton and sesame harvest are all wrapped up. We’ve had some recent rains that have helped citrus, vegetable and livestock producers, but rains have been spotty. It looks like our irrigated producers are going to be okay this year, mainly because of the Texas Water Treaty Assistance Grant money they received. Our dryland producers look like they may be struggling in some areas. Livestock is still the bright spot in our Ag economy.

• Current prices for alfalfa hay are lower than the previous year, and with the monsoon season, demand is down as well. Cattle markets remain very strong. Other commodity markets  such as cotton, wheat and corn remain fairly stable quarter over quarter.

• Area farmers are reporting above average yields. However, the price of the commodity is less than anticipated. This will cause less loan repayment and greater carryover of farm debt. This being the case there will be some farmers put out of business with another year of low revenue. If this turns out to be a below average year following two rough years, it will be devastating for some in the ag-production sector.

Historical data

Historical data can be downloaded dating back to first quarter 2000.

• Land Values
• Cash Rents
• Farm Lending Indexes
• Loan Volume Indexes by Loan Type
• Anticipated Farmland Values and Credit Standards
• Interest Rates by Loan Type

Charts

What changes occurred in non-real-estate farm loans at your bank in the past three months compared with a year earlier?

What changes occurred in the volume of farm loans made by your bank in the past three months compared with a year earlier?

What trend in farmland values do you expect in your area in the next three months?

What change occurred in credit standards for agricultural loans at your bank in the past three months compared with a year earlier?

Tables