Research Department Working Papers
The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility
This paper proposes a novel approach to decompose realized jump measures by type of activity (finite/infinite) and by sign.
December 17, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Commodity Exports, Financial Frictions and International Spillovers
This paper offers a solution to the international co-movement puzzle found in open-economy macroeconomic models.
December 16, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings
A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models. If the responses look similar, they are considered trustworthy. If not, the estimates are often used to bound the true response. This paper proves by counterexample that this practice is invalid in general.
November 23, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks
Interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements reveal both the surprise in the monetary policy stance (the pure policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the information shock). In order to disentangle the effects of these two shocks, this paper uses interest rate changes on days of macroeconomic data releases.
August 22, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe
This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 transmission rates and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government-mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of new variants.
July 12, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
A Robust Test for Weak Instruments for 2SLS with Multiple Endogenous Regressors
This paper develops a test for instrument strength based on the bias of two-stage least squares (2SLS) that (1) generalizes the tests of Stock and Yogo (2005) and Sanderson and Windmeijer (2016) to be robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, and (2) extends the Montiel Olea and Pflueger (2013) robust test for models with a single endogenous regressor to multiple endogenous regressors.
June 21, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Dynamic Identification Using System Projections on Instrumental Variables
This paper proposes System Projections on Instrumental Variables (SP-IV) to estimate structural relationships using regressions of structural impulse responses obtained from local projections or vector autoregressions.
March 30, 2022
‘Great ratios’ in economics don’t all add up
"Great ratios" are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth, arbitrage or solvency. However, the empirical literature has tended to find little evidence for them.
October 19, 2021
COVID-19 risks expose vulnerabilities, downside risks to U.S. outlook
The COVID-19 crisis has adversely affected the U.S. economy, helping account for a projected 3.4 percent contraction in 2020. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates a strong 4.6 percent rebound in 2021, making up for those losses.
March 02, 2021
Systemic risks, interdependencies weigh on 2021 global outlook
The path of economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession remains far from clear. A fitful rollout of vaccines and governmental responses to new variants of the virus loom over a global growth rebound that private forecasters estimate at 5.5 percent for 2021.
February 16, 2021