Econometrics

• Systemic risks, interdependencies weigh on 2021 global outlook

  The path of economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession remains far from clear. A fitful rollout of vaccines and governmental responses to new variants of the virus loom over a global growth rebound that private forecasters estimate at 5.5 percent for 2021.

  February 16, 2021

• The production process drives fluctuations in output and uncertainty

  If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.

  June 30, 2020

• Crude oil price changes quicker to register at gasoline pump

  How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.

  October 01, 2019

• U.S. tax cuts boost economy—but for how long?

  Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes.

  June 04, 2019