Working Papers
Dynamic Identification Using System Projections on Instrumental Variables
This paper proposes System Projections on Instrumental Variables (SP-IV) to estimate structural relationships using regressions of structural impulse responses obtained from local projections or vector autoregressions.
March 30, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
‘Great ratios’ in economics don’t all add up
"Great ratios" are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth, arbitrage or solvency. However, the empirical literature has tended to find little evidence for them.
October 19, 2021
Dallas Fed Economics
COVID-19 risks expose vulnerabilities, downside risks to U.S. outlook
The COVID-19 crisis has adversely affected the U.S. economy, helping account for a projected 3.4 percent contraction in 2020. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates a strong 4.6 percent rebound in 2021, making up for those losses.
March 02, 2021
Dallas Fed Economics
Systemic risks, interdependencies weigh on 2021 global outlook
The path of economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession remains far from clear. A fitful rollout of vaccines and governmental responses to new variants of the virus loom over a global growth rebound that private forecasters estimate at 5.5 percent for 2021.
February 16, 2021
The production process drives fluctuations in output and uncertainty
If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.
June 30, 2020
Crude oil price changes quicker to register at gasoline pump
How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.
October 01, 2019
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. tax cuts boost economy—but for how long?
Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes.
June 04, 2019