Working Paper
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms and Trickle-Up Economics
This paper proposes a method to decompose changes in the tax structure into orthogonal components measuring the level and progressivity of taxes.
April 24, 2025
Working Paper
Revisiting the Interest Rate Effects of Federal Debt
This paper revisits the relationship between federal debt and interest rates, which is a key input for assessments of fiscal sustainability.
April 23, 2025
Working Paper
Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge
In August 2020, the Federal Reserve adopted Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), permitting inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target. Using synthetic control methods, this paper estimates that FAIT raised headline CPI inflation by 1 percentage point and core CPI by 0.5 percentage points, relative to a no-FAIT-adoption counterfactual, with short-lived effects concentrated during the 2021 inflation surge.
April 09, 2025
Working Paper
Impulse Response Diagnostics for Priors on Parameters in Structural Vector Autoregressions
This paper proposes verifying that the prior distribution of impulse responses in structural VAR models is not unintentionally informative and discusses diagnostic tools to help practitioners ensure their priors do not unduly influence their reported conclusions.
February 25, 2025
Working Paper
Nonparametric Local Projections
This paper studies the properties of an alternative nonparametric local projection estimator of the conditional and unconditional responses of an outcome variable to an observed identified shock.
November 20, 2024
Working Paper
The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
September 25, 2024
Working Paper
Xtpb: The Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels
This paper introduces a new Stata command, xtpb, that implements the Chudik, Pesaran and Smith (2023) Pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panel-data models.
August 20, 2024
Working Paper
Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability
This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability.
August 05, 2024
Working Paper
When Is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate?
Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically employed in estimating sign-identified VAR models is driving the prior about the structural impulse responses and hence their posterior. This paper provides evidence that the quantitative importance of the Haar prior for posterior inference has been overstated.
July 09, 2024
Working Paper
Mean Group Distributed Lag Estimation of Impulse Response Functions in Large Panels
This paper develops Mean Group Distributed Lag (MGDL) estimation of impulse responses of common shocks in large panels with one or two cross-section dimensions.
May 07, 2024