Dallas Fed Economics
Systemic risks, interdependencies weigh on 2021 global outlook
The path of economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession remains far from clear. A fitful rollout of vaccines and governmental responses to new variants of the virus loom over a global growth rebound that private forecasters estimate at 5.5 percent for 2021.
February 16, 2021
Dallas Fed Economics
The production process drives fluctuations in output and uncertainty
If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.
June 30, 2020
Dallas Fed Economics
Crude oil price changes quicker to register at gasoline pump
How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.
October 01, 2019
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. tax cuts boost economy—but for how long?
Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes.
June 04, 2019
Working Paper
Are Nonlinear Methods Necessary at the Zero Lower Bound?
This paper examines the importance of the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate by estimating three variants of a small-scale New Keynesian model.
August 01, 2016
Working Paper
Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Credit Channel: Aggregate and Bank Level U.S. Evidence over Several Decades
Economic policy uncertainty affects decisions of households, businesses, policy makers and financial intermediaries.
June 29, 2016
Working Paper
Why Are Big Banks Getting Bigger?
The U.S. banking sector has become substantially more concentrated since the 1990s, raising questions about both the causes and implications of this consolidation.
February 18, 2016