A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Has the Beige Book become disconnected from economic data?
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a key tool for identifying U.S. business-cycle shifts, has traditionally aligned with economic data. However, postpandemic, its economic characterizations often appear weaker than what hard data indicated, raising concerns of divergence from official statistics.
May 27, 2025
Innovation flourishes in Austin
Austin continues to grow as a place where research and creativity flourish. On a recent trip to the Texas capital, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan visited with people representing various stages of the innovation cycle, from cutting-edge research to developing real-life applications.
May 23, 2025
Texas Economic Indicators, May 2025
The Texas economy expanded in April. Employment growth was strong, and earnings rose. At the same time, the April Texas Business Outlook Surveys showed a continued decline in business activity.
May 22, 2025
Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance
This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, the method used in this paper leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values.
May 21, 2025
Opening remarks for panel titled ‘The increasing role of nonbank institutions in the Treasury and money markets’
As moderator of a panel discussion, Dallas Fed President Logan gathered industry experts’ views on the role of nonbank institutions in Treasury and money markets and how to enhance these markets’ resilience.
May 19, 2025
Bankers report slight growth in loan volume but flat loan demand
Loan volume grew slightly while loan demand was unchanged in May. Credit tightening continued, but loan pricing declined.
May 19, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast, May 16
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 2.3 percent.
May 16, 2025
What Drives Cyber Losses at U.S. Banks? Potential Statistical Markers
This paper models average annual loss (AAL) rates from “attritional” cyber-attacks and other cyber events using new, individual bank level data from the CyberCube “analytics platform” combined with standard bank performance measures.
May 15, 2025
Texas’ economic outlook deteriorates as tariff-related uncertainty builds
While lagging indicators reflect resilient growth for the Texas economy, more recent survey data suggest diminished momentum amid elevated uncertainty about the outlook.
May 15, 2025
The Social Returns to Public R&D
Recent empirical evidence by Fieldhouse and Mertens (2024) points to a strong causal link between federal nondefense R&D funding and private-sector productivity growth, and large implied social returns to public R&D investment. This paper shows that these high social return estimates broadly align with existing evidence on the social returns to private or total R&D spending.
May 14, 2025