Dallas Fed Economics
Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026
We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.
May 05, 2026
Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in March was 2.4 percent.
April 30, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Implications of the Iran war for U.S. inflation
Recent research quantifies the impact of 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation and household inflation expectations under a range of scenarios. Under a plausible scenario, 2026 fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter headline personal consumption expenditures inflation would increase by 0.6 percentage points.
April 17, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Skewness warrants caution as Trimmed Mean PCE inflation eases
Divergence of core and trimmed mean inflation readings prompt reassessment of which one is the best indicator of medium-term trend.
April 16, 2026
Working Paper
The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis
This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War.
April 07, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Data center boom expected to raise electricity component of PCE inflation
Even a modest data center boom could put upward pressure on retail electricity prices, impacting PCE inflation.
March 05, 2026
Working Paper
Mean Group and Pooled Mixed-Frequency Estimators of Responses of Low-Frequency Variables to High-Frequency Shocks
This paper proposes mean group and pooled estimators of impulse responses based on mixed-frequency auxiliary distributed lag (DL), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) or vector autoregressive distributed lag (VARDL) estimating equations.
February 17, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Payment system design can encourage intraday liquidity efficiency
Efficient allocation of bank reserves improves central bank balance sheet efficiency. Frictions in such redistribution can affect monetary policy implementation.
October 02, 2025
Speeches and essays
Why I’ll be cautious about further rate cuts
While the labor market has undeniably slowed, not all of the slowing represents economic slack, and inflation remains persistently above target.
September 30, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
What is keeping core inflation above 2 percent?
How much is current "excess" inflation? We take a new approach to this question, focusing on movements in relative prices.
September 23, 2025