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Inflation

 

  • Is inflation still slowing? Early 2025 data pivotal to outlook

    January inflation data were stronger in 2023 and 2024 than forecasters expected, even after more encouraging results had been reported for the ends of 2022 and 2023. Rather than reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties, this pattern may be caused by a large share of firms changing prices at the start of a new year.

  • Speech by President Lorie K. Logan

    Opening remarks for panel on ‘Future challenges for monetary policy in the Americas’

    At the Bank for International Settlements’ Chapultepec Conference, Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan discussed future challenges for monetary policy in the Americas and the role of the neutral interest rate.

  • U.S. Economy

    Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate

    The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in December was 2.77 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 2.55 percent on a 12-month basis, and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 2.79 percent on a 12-month basis.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Dynamics of Market Power in Monetary Economies

    This paper studies the dynamic interplay between monetary policy and market power in a decentralized monetary economy. Building on Choi and Rocheteau (2024), its key innovation is to model rent seeking as a process that takes time, allowing market power to evolve gradually.

  • Inflation stress and concern remain elevated despite stabilizing prices

    Despite consumer price inflation falling considerably since peaking in 2022, household inflation-related stress and concern remain elevated, having dropped only slightly.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Problem of Quality Change in Historical Price Statistics: An Illustrative Example Using Baedeker Travel Guides

    This paper uses a novel dataset on the prices of the travel guidebooks published by the German publishing house Baedeker between 1832 and 1944 to construct a hedonic price index for guidebooks. Comparing these indexes to the list prices of these guidebooks, the paper shows that the failure to adjust for improvements in the quality of the guidebooks over time imparts a substantial upward bias to measured inflation.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    What Imports to Import Prices?

    This study offers new insights into exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using U.S. import price indexes by country-of-origin, covering two decades of monthly data.

  • International factors broadly explain postpandemic inflation

    The recent co-movement of inflation across countries, including the U.S., can be explained in part by global and regional factors. Policymakers, who have tended to more closely look closer to home may want to more broadly consider global events and pressures when addressing changing inflation pressures.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications

    This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. The authors build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode.

  • Impact of inflation shocks on foreign exchange rates reflects central bank stature

    The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.