Inflation

 

• Texas among states feeling most stressed by inflation

  As consumer prices have climbed at a faster rate in Texas and surrounding states than nationally—food and shelter increasing even more—Texans are feeling especially stressed about rising prices.

  November 07, 2023

• U.S. Economy

  Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate

  The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in September was 3.8 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 3.4 percent on a 12-month basis, and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 3.7 percent on a 12-month basis.

  October 27, 2023

• How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?

  A normalized labor market likely entails a more-usual relationship between layoffs and labor market tightness indicators, and sooner or later, a higher unemployment rate.

  October 19, 2023

• Globalization Institute Working Paper

  Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis

  This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility.

  September 29, 2023

• Bankers, regulators absorb lessons of Silicon Valley Bank failure as new tests emerge

  Ben Munyan, director of supervisory policy in the Banking Supervision Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, discusses the challenges the banking industry faces in an era of rapidly rising interest rates and how Texas institutions have fared.

  September 29, 2023

• Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

  Behind the numbers: PCE inflation update, July 2023

  The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 2.6 percent in July after increasing an annualized 2.5 percent in June.

  August 31, 2023

• Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro

  The role of individual housing markets and their sensitivity to mortgage rate changes play an important part in understanding the impact of higher rates.

  August 15, 2023

• Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes

  Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies.

  August 08, 2023

• Wage growth still exceeds 3 percent despite slowing in business survey measures

  Fed policymakers working to reduce inflation have closely monitored how fast wages have risen. National estimates put recent 12-month wage inflation at around 4–5 percent, though these measures can lag other indicators of labor market conditions. More timely wage data can be found from the five regional Federal Reserve Banks that run business surveys.

  August 01, 2023

• Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

  Behind the numbers: PCE inflation update, June 2023

  The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 2.0 percent in June after increasing an annualized 1.5 percent in May.

  July 28, 2023