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Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the numbers: PCE inflation update, December 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 0.6 percent in December after increasing an annualized 1.2 percent in November.
February 03, 2023
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U.S. Economy
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in December was 4.4 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 5.0 percent on a 12-month basis, and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 4.4 percent on a 12-month basis.
January 27, 2023
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Research Department Working Papers
Dynamic Identification Using System Projections and Instrumental Variables
This paper proposes System Projections on Instrumental Variables (SP-IV) to estimate dynamic structural relationships using impulse responses obtained from local projections or vector autoregressions.
January 09, 2023
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Research Department Working Papers
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
This paper proposes a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices.
January 06, 2023
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Existing low-rate mortgages blunt impact of recent rate surge
The prevalence of low-rate mortgages suggests that future policy rate cuts may not as effectively stimulate household spending through refinancing as during past recessions.
December 27, 2022
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Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, November 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 1.3 percent in November after increasing an annualized 4.6 percent in October.
December 23, 2022
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Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2022
Less-tight labor market helps Texas grow faster than U.S. during pandemic
Amid widespread reports of worker shortages, Texas' not-so-constricted labor markets have helped the state outpace the nation in job growth.
December 22, 2022
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Research Department Working Papers
A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks
This paper develops a vector autoregressive model that quantifies the joint impact of shocks to several energy prices on headline and core CPI inflation.
December 21, 2022
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Globalization Institute Working Paper
Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?
This paper evaluates the forecasting ability when inflation is viewed as an inherently global phenomenon through the lens of the workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model.
December 20, 2022
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Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, October 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 4.1 percent in October after increasing an annualized 4.2 percent in September.
December 01, 2022