Working Paper
Globalization, Inflation Dynamics and the Slope of the Phillips Curve
This paper studies how international trade has affected U.S. inflation dynamics. The authors develop a multi-region New Keynesian model of an open monetary union in which regional Phillips curve slopes depend on exposure to imported goods.
September 22, 2026
Working Paper
The Short Lags of Monetary Policy
This paper examines the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the macroeconomy at high frequency by constructing daily consumption and investment aggregates from bank transaction records and leveraging administrative data on daily corporate sales and employment for Spain.
September 18, 2026
Working Paper
Risk Management in Monetary Policy: A Review with Asset Pricing Implications
This paper reviews recent research on how the Fed’s risk-management approach shapes the overall policy stance and how it affects financial market conditions. The evidence shows that the policy stance contains a forward-looking, conditional component that has long been an integral part of the Fed’s policymaking toolkit.
September 01, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Alternative Trimmed Mean PCE inflation measure better tracked price surge
To gauge the medium-term trend in underlying inflation, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate drops price changes in the tails of the monthly distribution of PCE components, minimizing the impact of outliers.
August 13, 2026
Working Paper
Structural Estimation with Unstructured Data
Standard macroeconomic data do not cleanly separate the systematic and nonsystematic components of monetary policy. This paper shows that incorporating unstructured text data into the structural estimation of a DSGE model can sharpen this distinction.
July 31, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Supplier networks transmit Fed rate moves through economy
An important way monetary policy affects the economy is through household spending. When the Federal Reserve increases or lowers interest rates, the effects do not end with just the businesses most exposed to the resulting changes in household spending.
June 30, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Rising hedge fund leverage affects monetary policy implementation
The structure of the Treasury and repurchase agreement (repo) markets has changed over the past decade in ways that alter how administered rates pass through to market rates.
May 28, 2026
Speeches and essays
Opening remarks for ‘Monetary policy and imbalances’ panel
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan discusses energy markets, financial imbalances and the implications of declining global fertility.
May 27, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Climbing the employment ladder tough when bottom rung is broken
Recent labor market data appear to reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Because aggregate layoffs remain low by historical standards, the upward drift in the unemployment rate over the past two years is often viewed as a benign normalization process rather than a cyclical vulnerability.
May 26, 2026
Working Paper
Term Funding Premium—Time Is Money After All
This paper presents evidence from financial markets arguing for the explicit recognition of a different kind of premium that is associated with terming out funding without bearing interest rate risk.
May 11, 2026