Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.
October 09, 2025
Network structure of money markets and firms affects policy transmission
Understanding the underlying network structure of money markets provides valuable insights for monitoring reserve scarcity and its evolution in response to regulatory and market changes.
October 07, 2025
Payment system design can encourage intraday liquidity efficiency
Efficient allocation of bank reserves improves central bank balance sheet efficiency. Frictions in such redistribution can affect monetary policy implementation.
October 02, 2025
Central bank swaps offer dollar crisis lifeline to non-U.S. banks
Starting in late 2007, the Federal Reserve, in partnership with a few major foreign central banks, began offering central bank dollar liquidity swap lines as an important liquidity backstop.
September 30, 2025
What is keeping core inflation above 2 percent?
How much is current "excess" inflation? We take a new approach to this question, focusing on movements in relative prices.
September 23, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.
September 19, 2025
Bubble thought: What beliefs can reveal about housing market risks
Survey-based forecast data on home price growth are a surer indicator of housing market exuberance than traditional valuation ratios, such as price-to-income or price-to-rent.
September 02, 2025
Falling rates no assurance of homeowner refinancing binge
When the Fed lowers its benchmark policy rate, the reduction is usually reflected in a variety of consumer finance rates, notably mortgages. However, there are reasons to believe that such a reduction might not prompt an increase in the volume of mortgage refinances and prepayment activity as has historically occurred.
August 14, 2025
How sensitive are interest rates to higher federal debt?
The U.S. faces a historically high federal debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure of debt relative to economic output. But how sensitive are interest rates to higher debt?
August 12, 2025
Accounting for interest rate risk: Matching Fed assets to liabilities
In Depth: The Fed has floating-rate liabilities as well as long-lived, zero-interest liabilities. A barbell of floating-rate and long-duration assets would best offset the interest rate risk from these liabilities. Investing in a more diversified mix of durations, while matching the average duration of assets, could be more practical than the barbell approach but would leave a substantial portion of interest rate risk unhedged.
August 07, 2025