-
Existing low-rate mortgages blunt impact of recent rate surge
The prevalence of low-rate mortgages suggests that future policy rate cuts may not as effectively stimulate household spending through refinancing as during past recessions.
December 27, 2022
-
Research Department Working Papers
A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks
This paper develops a vector autoregressive model that quantifies the joint impact of shocks to several energy prices on headline and core CPI inflation.
December 21, 2022
-
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Commodity Exports, Financial Frictions and International Spillovers
This paper offers a solution to the international co-movement puzzle found in open-economy macroeconomic models.
December 16, 2022
-
Does employers’ worker poaching explain the Beveridge curve’s odd behavior?
Increased worker job-hopping may help explain the odd-shaped post-COVID Beveridge curve and the underlying employment behavior it depicts.
November 22, 2022
-
Skimming U.S. housing froth a delicate, daunting task
U.S. house prices appreciated a remarkable 94.5 percent from first quarter 2013 to second quarter 2022—a 60.8 percent rise after adjusting for inflation.
November 15, 2022
-
Whose wages are falling behind the least amid surging inflation?
For a majority of workers, wages didn’t increase as fast as inflation in the 12 months ended in second quarter 2022. Here, we dig deeper to see how outcomes may have differed across groups of workers.
October 18, 2022
-
More workers find their wages falling even further behind inflation
While the past 25 years have witnessed episodes that show either a greater incidence or larger magnitude of real wage declines, the current time period is unparalleled in terms of the challenge employed workers face.
October 04, 2022
-
Inflation in services likely to rise further despite slowing goods prices
Given rising demand for in-person services, the slow pass-through of surging house prices to rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER), and higher health care worker wages, services inflation is likely to increase further.
September 06, 2022
-
Research Department Working Papers
Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks
Interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements reveal both the surprise in the monetary policy stance (the pure policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the information shock). In order to disentangle the effects of these two shocks, this paper uses interest rate changes on days of macroeconomic data releases.
August 22, 2022
-
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, this paper documents that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT considerably more than predicted had the strategy not changed.
July 30, 2022