June 30, 2020
Tyler Atkinson, Michael Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.
June 23, 2020
Joshua Bernstein, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
A staggering 22.03 million initial claims for unemployment benefits were filed from mid-March to mid-April as the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing stay-at-home policies took hold across the country.
June 18, 2020
Anil Kumar and Judy Teng
The decrease affected all major metro areas, with the steepest drops coming in El Paso, Fort Worth and Austin, followed closely by Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.
June 16, 2020
Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou
Recent advances in applied work have overturned decades of conventional wisdom regarding how consumers respond to gasoline price fluctuations.
June 2, 2020
Mark A. Wynne
Kohn and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Kohn’s career at the Fed, his experience during the Global Financial Crisis and his thoughts on the Fed’s reaction to the current crisis.
May 28, 2020
Alexander Chudik, Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci
Voluntary social distancing and a lack of compliance with mandated polices have led to unnecessarily high infection rates and death tolls in a number of countries.
May 26, 2020
Xiaoqing Zhou
Household survey data and recent unemployment forecasts provide a basis for estimating the share of mortgage borrowers that—absent the CARES Act—would have missed a mortgage payment due to the economic shutdown.
May 22, 2020
Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens
Survey results for the week of May 10 suggest further declines in employment and an increase in unemployment relative to the week of April 26 – May 2, though both changes are within the survey’s margin of error.
May 21, 2020
Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Christoffer Koch, Evan Koenig, Karel Mertens, Anthony Murphy and Kei-Mu Yi
To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices. (Revised June 3, 2020)
May 19, 2020
Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante and Xiaoqing Zhou
The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of oil dropped by more than half from Jan. 21 to April 3. This oil price decline has weakened rather than strengthened the U.S. economy, making this event different from past episodes of falling oil prices.