October 19, 2021
Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran and Ron P. Smith
"Great ratios" are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth, arbitrage or solvency. However, the empirical literature has tended to find little evidence for them.
October 14, 2021
Tyler Atkinson, Jonah Danziger and Alexander W. Richter
In our baseline scenario, core inflation is 2.6 percent in 2022. If this occurs, core inflation will have averaged 2.4 percent over the last five years, moderately above the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
October 12, 2021
James Lee, Pia Orrenius and Ana Pranger
Lower birth rates are associated with less growth and a more rapidly aging population and, hence, slower economic expansion.
October 7, 2021
Sean Howard, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy
The weaker-than-expected August labor market report should not obscure the labor market’s ongoing and significant progress while recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
October 5, 2021
Alex Almeida, Monica Barbosa and Ali Ozdagli
Despite regulations that encourage diversification and informational symmetry among buyers, insurance companies tend to lend to their current borrowers. This bondholder–issuer relationship moderates the effect of transitory economic shocks such as those associated with the onset of COVID-19.
September 30, 2021
Pia Orrenius and James Lee
Regional economic growth has slowed, though it remains robust by historical standards. While demand has improved from year-ago levels, supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages have limited output growth and pushed up wages and prices.
September 28, 2021
Enrique Martínez García, Jarod Coulter, Valerie Grossman, Efthymios Pavlidis, Kostas Vasilopoulos and Iván Payá
The current trajectory prompts the question: Do markets face the prospect of a housing bubble once again? Alternatively, are price increases in step with housing market fundamentals?
September 7, 2021
Alex Almeida, Monica Barbosa, Mary Burke and Ali Ozdagli
Communication that raises inflation expectations has been suggested as a policy tool for central banks. Our research suggests that this policy tool has some limitations that central banks must manage when implementing it.
August 31, 2021
Michael L. Tindall and Michael A. Perez
The Treasury auction surprise indicator suggests that, despite a sharply negative reading in March 2020, Treasury auction outcomes have normalized.
August 26, 2021
W. Scott Frame, Brian Greene, Cindy Hull and Joshua Zorsky
We explore the Federal Reserve’s purchases of agency MBS—mortgage bonds guaranteed by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—and related market dynamics during the pandemic, including why mortgage rates fell to historic lows.