July 16, 2024
Tyler Atkinson and Ron Mau
In the short run, running the economy hot—with output growth above potential—comes with the cost of additional inflation. But policymakers cannot exploit this relationship forever because inflation expectations won’t remain anchored, as the public comes to expect a higher level of inflation for any given level of output.
July 9, 2024
Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ron Mau and Alexander W. Richter
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
July 2, 2024
Pia Orrenius, Ana Pranger, Madeline Zavodny and Isabel Dhillon
U.S. labor market conditions are among the main drivers of an unprecedented surge of immigration, the exact size and consequences of which are still being assessed.
June 25, 2024
Jesus Cañas and Emily Kerr
Learning how businesses use artificial intelligence (AI) helps policymakers understand changing economic conditions, particularly involving employment and productivity.
June 20, 2024
Mariam Yousuf, Isabel Dhillon and Diego Morales-Burnett
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in May, driven by the service sector. Texas employment growth picked up, and the unemployment rate nudged up to 4.0 percent in April from 3.9 percent in March.
June 18, 2024
Braden Strackman and Mark Wynne
Many individual price changes make up widely used gauges of inflation. Their relative importance changes over time and may affect how consumers perceive inflation. Such perceptions can prompt households to update their inflation expectations, decreasing optimism about real economic activity.
May 28, 2024
Chi-Young Choi, Alexander Chudik and Aaron Smallwood
Growth in house prices is highly persistent and therefore more predictable than that of other assets, such as stocks.
May 21, 2024
Scott Davis and Pon Sagnanert
During the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, imbalances in the offshore dollar funding market led to safe-haven appreciation of the dollar. Fed swap lines between the U.S. central bank and counterparts abroad addressed these imbalances, subsequently helping reduce the cost of offshore dollar borrowing, reversing dollar appreciation and providing liquidity.
May 14, 2024
Lutz Kilian and David Rapson
The decline in Russian oil export revenue since January 2022 was achieved by reducing the Russian export price rather than the volume of Russian oil exports.
May 7, 2024
Robert Leigh, Ana Pranger, Yichen Su and Mariam Yousuf
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in April. While the manufacturing sector rebounded, the service sector slowed. Texas employment growth was moderate in the first quarter, slightly above the state’s roughly 2 percent long-run trend, and the unemployment rate held steady.