August 12, 2025
Michael D. Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Sarah Zubairy
The U.S. faces a historically high federal debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure of debt relative to economic output. But how sensitive are interest rates to higher debt?
August 7, 2025
Hugo De Vere, Srini Ramaswamy and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
In-Depth: The Fed has floating-rate liabilities as well as long-lived, zero-interest liabilities. A barbell of floating-rate and long-duration assets would best offset the interest rate risk from these liabilities. Investing in a more diversified mix of durations, while matching the average duration of assets, could be more practical than the barbell approach but would leave a substantial portion of interest rate risk unhedged.
August 5, 2025
Christine Docherty and Alessio Saretto
Reciprocal deposit networks are designed to increase the total amount eligible for FDIC deposit insurance. In recent years, growth of the networks has accelerated, prompting a re-evaluation of the existing deposit insurance framework and raising at least three questions.
July 17, 2025
Mariam Yousuf and Robert Leigh
Firms are adopting AI and automation to offset rising tariff costs and shrinking margins, aiming to boost productivity and reduce labor needs amid economic challenges.
July 15, 2025
Srini Ramaswamy, Hugo De Vere, Matthew McCormick and Seth Searls
In Depth: The Treasury cash-futures basis trade, a very large, leveraged Treasury trade, has drawn scrutiny because unwinding positions amplified stress during the pandemic-era market shock of March 2020. Although the trade has since become more prominent, recent market activity suggest that financial stability concerns have not simultaneously grown.
July 8, 2025
Pia Orrenius, Grace Ozor, Madeline Zavodny and Xiaoqing Zhou
In Depth: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.
June 24, 2025
Mark Wynne and Lillian Derr
Artificial intelligence offers the potential to improve people’s living standards. Such advances can be approximated by changes in GDP per capita over time. Using that common measure, AI could enhance longstanding productivity gains or, alternatively, drastically alter the economy in relatively short order.
June 3, 2025
Mark Wynne and Lillian Derr
Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?
May 27, 2025
Laila Assanie, Ethan Dixon and Emily Kerr
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a key tool for identifying U.S. business-cycle shifts, has traditionally aligned with economic data. However, postpandemic, its economic characterizations often appear weaker than what hard data indicated, raising concerns of divergence from official statistics.
May 13, 2025
Enrique Martínez García and Michael Sposi
In Depth: U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously.