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Dallas Fed Economics Archive

Analysis and insights to enhance your understanding of the economy

 

  • Chi-Young Choi, Alexander Chudik and Aaron Smallwood

    Growth in house prices is highly persistent and therefore more predictable than that of other assets, such as stocks.
  • Scott Davis and Pon Sagnanert

    During the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, imbalances in the offshore dollar funding market led to safe-haven appreciation of the dollar. Fed swap lines between the U.S. central bank and counterparts abroad addressed these imbalances, subsequently helping reduce the cost of offshore dollar borrowing, reversing dollar appreciation and providing liquidity.
  • Lutz Kilian and David Rapson

    The decline in Russian oil export revenue since January 2022 was achieved by reducing the Russian export price rather than the volume of Russian oil exports.
  • Robert Leigh, Ana Pranger, Yichen Su and Mariam Yousuf

    Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in April. While the manufacturing sector rebounded, the service sector slowed. Texas employment growth was moderate in the first quarter, slightly above the state’s roughly 2 percent long-run trend, and the unemployment rate held steady.
  • Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

    The direct impact of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability has received much attention. We emphasize that housing affordability not only depends on mortgage rates but also on house prices, which have competing effects.
  • Jesus Cañas and Diego Morales-Burnett

    A majority of Texas Business Outlook Surveys participants expect increasing demand over the next six months, signaling an improving business outlook, even as inflation and wage growth in Texas remain elevated.
  • Enrique Martínez García and Braden Strackman

    The U.S. economy boasts robust growth and slowing inflation despite the highest interest rates in two decades. Such performance isn’t common globally, especially among other advanced economies, revealing crucial differences in the fundamental factors driving inflation and growth.
  • Anton Cheremukhin

    At first glance, it seems unlikely that the unemployment rate would remain stable if the number of job vacancies decreased. However, such a scenario played out recently as the number of firms seeking to fill positions by poaching employees from other firms increased, while the ranks of the unemployed remained relatively stable.
  • Tyler Atkinson and Ron Mau

    As money demand changes, and in particular as money velocity fluctuates with interest rates, this relationship can become unstable with money growth providing limited useful information for inflation forecasting.
  • Andrew J. Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens

    Our estimates indicate that government-funded R&D accounts for roughly one quarter of all business sector productivity growth since World War II, including one quarter of the deceleration in productivity growth since the late 1960s.