June 24, 2025
Mark Wynne and Lillian Derr
Artificial intelligence offers the potential to improve people’s living standards. Such advances can be approximated by changes in GDP per capita over time. Using that common measure, AI could enhance longstanding productivity gains or, alternatively, drastically alter the economy in relatively short order.
June 3, 2025
Mark Wynne and Lillian Derr
Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?
May 27, 2025
Laila Assanie, Ethan Dixon and Emily Kerr
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a key tool for identifying U.S. business-cycle shifts, has traditionally aligned with economic data. However, postpandemic, its economic characterizations often appear weaker than what hard data indicated, raising concerns of divergence from official statistics.
May 13, 2025
Enrique Martínez García and Michael Sposi
In Depth: U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously.
April 22, 2025
Prithvi Kalkunte and Mariam Yousuf
The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.
April 15, 2025
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
This essay examines the trade-offs between different monetary policy implementation methods through the lens of the consolidated government balance sheet and income statement
April 3, 2025
Jesus Cañas and Diego Morales-Burnett
The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
April 1, 2025
Alexander Chudik and Ron Mau
The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.
March 25, 2025
Isabel Dhillon and Pia Orrenius
While experiencing exceptional economic growth over the past decade, data show that Texas is last or lagging the nation in several key areas.
March 4, 2025
Anthony Murphy, Ben Munyan and Dylan Ryfe
While the key measures suggest that conditions that hamper a bank’s resilience to economic adversity are marginally higher than before the pandemic in 2019, we expect further declines in bank stress levels as interest rates normalize.