August 25, 2026
Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy
Development of faster payment infrastructure has accelerated in recent years. Real-time payment options for individuals and businesses have grown substantially, including the Federal Reserve’s FedNow platform allowing instant payment processing for eligible banks and credit unions.
August 18, 2026
Enrique Martínez García and Ron Mau
Higher tariffs do not automatically show up one-for-one in consumer prices. Price effects depend on how firms respond. Foreign exporters may cut pre-tariff prices to preserve access to the U.S. market, while domestic importers or retailers may absorb part of the increase with lower margins.
August 13, 2026
Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas and Rebecca Zarutskie
To gauge the medium-term trend in underlying inflation, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate drops price changes in the tails of the monthly distribution of PCE components, minimizing the impact of outliers.
August 11, 2026
Scott Davis and Lillian Derr
Government debt financed from domestic savings has a smaller effect on interest rates than government debt financed from foreign borrowing, and nations that are net international creditors can borrow more cheaply than net international debtors. These observations help explain massive government borrowing since 2008 while bond yields remained persistently low.
August 4, 2026
Enrique Martínez García and Ron Mau
Despite regional sourcing and compliance costs, USMCA-based firms enjoy an edge over competitors outside North America facing higher U.S. tariffs.
July 14, 2026
Seth Dunbar, Pon Sagnanert, Alessio Saretto and Guhan Venkatu
Commercial banks have begun exploring adoption of tokenized deposits, traditional deposits that rely on blockchain technology and allow payments to settle almost instantaneously.
July 7, 2026
Scott Davis
Because AI use varies across countries, we can draw on international data to investigate the relationship between AI exposure and productivity growth at the sector level. The positive relationship in the U.S. fits a pattern visible among countries and appears related to high AI use.
June 30, 2026
Ali Ozdagli and Michael Weber
An important way monetary policy affects the economy is through household spending. When the Federal Reserve increases or lowers interest rates, the effects do not end with just the businesses most exposed to the resulting changes in household spending.
June 25, 2026
Srini Ramaswamy, Seth Searls, Hugo De Vere and Ipek Ozil
Term premium, a central concept in analysis of interest rates and monetary policy, is generally viewed largely as compensation for bearing interest-rate risk. However, Treasury asset swap spreads strongly indicate the existence of a distinct premium—a term funding premium—associated with merely providing term financing. This funding premium shows promise as a real-time indicator of Treasury market stress.
June 23, 2026
Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante and and Alexander W. Richter
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.