October 8, 2026
Jesse Thompson and Garrett Golding
Even after the Iran conflict ends and the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, U.S. fuel prices will likely remain unusually elevated relative to crude prices, owing to diminished refining operations. As a result, headline inflation measures could remain above where oil price trends would normally indicate for as long as a significant portion of global refining capacity stays offline.
October 6, 2026
Ben Kim, Tucker Smith and Kei-Mu Yi
The U.S. average tariff rate increased from 2.9 percent in January 2025 to 14.8 percent in December, a rise of almost 12 percentage points. The surge—the largest such U.S. jump since the Smoot-Hawley tariffs at the onset of the Great Depression in 1930—led to a sharp increase in the tariff-inclusive prices that U.S. importers paid.
September 29, 2026
Lillian Derr and Mark Wynne
There has been incredible stability in the rate of improvement in U.S. living standards over time. As first documented by Stanford economist Charles Jones, living standards, measured by GDP per capita, have risen at a pretty constant rate of about 2 percent per year in the U.S. for more than 150 years.
September 22, 2026
Samuel Dodini and Tucker Smith
Evidence suggests that generative AI (GenAI) has reduced demand for positions in which the new technology can more efficiently complete tasks than humans.
September 1, 2026
Samuel Dodini and Tucker Smith
Texas firms are increasingly integrating generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) into their business processes. Two-thirds of firms surveyed in the May 2026 Texas Business Outlook Survey reported using AI, up from 40 percent two years prior.
August 25, 2026
Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy
Development of faster payment infrastructure has accelerated in recent years. Real-time payment options for individuals and businesses have grown substantially, including the Federal Reserve’s FedNow platform allowing instant payment processing for eligible banks and credit unions.
August 18, 2026
Enrique Martínez García and Ron Mau
Higher tariffs do not automatically show up one-for-one in consumer prices. Price effects depend on how firms respond. Foreign exporters may cut pre-tariff prices to preserve access to the U.S. market, while domestic importers or retailers may absorb part of the increase with lower margins.
August 13, 2026
Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas and Rebecca Zarutskie
To gauge the medium-term trend in underlying inflation, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate drops price changes in the tails of the monthly distribution of PCE components, minimizing the impact of outliers.
August 11, 2026
Scott Davis and Lillian Derr
Government debt financed from domestic savings has a smaller effect on interest rates than government debt financed from foreign borrowing, and nations that are net international creditors can borrow more cheaply than net international debtors. These observations help explain massive government borrowing since 2008 while bond yields remained persistently low.
August 4, 2026
Enrique Martínez García and Ron Mau
Despite regional sourcing and compliance costs, USMCA-based firms enjoy an edge over competitors outside North America facing higher U.S. tariffs.