April 17, 2026
Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou
Recent research quantifies the impact of 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation and household inflation expectations under a range of scenarios. Under a plausible scenario, 2026 fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter headline personal consumption expenditures inflation would increase by 0.6 percentage points.
April 16, 2026
Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas and Rebecca Zarutskie
Divergence of core and trimmed mean inflation readings prompt reassessment of which one is the best indicator of medium-term trend.
April 14, 2026
Cameron Barrett
Retail electricity rates are higher in California than Texas, but electricity cost accounts for a lower share of household budgets in California.
April 9, 2026
Rachel A. Jones, Reid Taylor and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan
Overall, homeowners insurance is becoming less affordable, yet this deterioration in affordability is not well captured by either of the most widely used inflation measures—CPI or PCE—both designed to track price levels rather than affordability or household financial strain.
April 2, 2026
Lorie Logan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Some observers have argued that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is too large and complicates the central bank’s operations. We catalog options for reducing the Fed’s major liabilities, which help determine the size of the balance sheet, as well as a framework for assessing the costs and benefits of those options.
March 31, 2026
Anton Cheremukhin, Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou
For policymakers, interpreting labor market conditions increasingly requires looking beyond headline payroll growth and incorporating timely measures of immigration and labor supply.
March 24, 2026
Shan Ge, Stephanie Johnson and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan
The rise in homeowners insurance premiums since the pandemic is not just a pricing issue; it is a growing source of financial stress, inequality and geographic sorting.
March 20, 2026
Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander W. Richter
The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
March 5, 2026
Owen Kay, Lutz Kilian and Reid Taylor
Even a modest data center boom could put upward pressure on retail electricity prices, impacting PCE inflation.
March 3, 2026
Michael Plante, Adefemi Abimbola, Kunal Patel and Isabelle Tseng
With demand for electric vehicles failing to meet ambitious projections, automakers, battery companies and utilities are reassessing how best to deploy battery power.