Center for Energy and the Economy working papers
No. 2533
Pollution Taxes and Clean Subsidies in an Open Economy
Abstract: In open economies, the effectiveness of carbon taxes is diminished by “pollution leakage,” where some polluting activity shifts abroad because of the tax. This paper shows that the same conditions that lead to pollution leakage enhance the efficacy of clean subsidies. As a result, the optimal policy in an open economy combines a pollution tax and a clean subsidy, the balance of which depends on the leakage rate. Furthermore, efficient policy sets the sum of the tax and subsidy rates, a measure of policy ambition, equal to the marginal damages from pollution, and does not depend on the leakage rate.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2533
No. 2530
Time-Limited Subsidies: Optimal Taxation with Implications for Renewable Energy Subsidies
Abstract: Pigouvian subsidies are efficient, but output subsidies with uncertain or limited durations are not Pigouvian. We show that optimal “time-limited” policies must also subsidize investment to correct externalities generated after the output subsidy ends. Furthermore, an output subsidy’s optimal duration is characterized by the change in production when it ends. In the wind-energy industry, we find that power generation decreases by 5-10% after the end of facilities’ ten-year eligibility for the Renewable Energy Production Tax Credit. This behavioral response has implications for energy transitions and highlights how time limits could cause larger distortions in more elastic industries.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2530
No. 2509 (Revised October 2025)
The Effects of Competition in the Retail Gasoline Industry
Abstract: We estimate the effect of competition on incumbent firm pricing by using high frequency price data and the precise geographic location for all gas stations in California. Using an event study design, we find that the entry of a new station is associated with a 2.7 cent decrease in prices at incumbent stores, which equates to a 7 percent reduction in estimated retail markups. The effects are immediate, persistent. In contrast, nearby exit results in precisely estimated null effects on prices. We show that these results are consistent across all fuel blends, dissipate with distance and are driven by less concentrated markets. Finally, we explore the asymmetric effects, showing that the difference cannot be attributed to differences in branding, proximity to highway or data quality idiosyncrasies, although we find suggestive evidence that exit tends to happen in more competitive markets and among less heavily trafficked stations.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2509r1
No. 2405
Do Bill Shocks Induce Energy Efficiency Investments?
Abstract: Inattention can lead to suboptimal investment in energy efficiency. We study whether electricity bill shocks draw attention to the benefits of home energy efficiency investments. Our novel identification strategy builds on the fact that prolonged extreme weather events (which raise electricity costs for many customers) fall within a single billing cycle for some customers but are split across cycles for others. We find that households exposed to average sized bill shocks are 22 percent more likely to invest in energy efficiency than households with normal bills. This result suggests that inattention is indeed a factor in residential energy decisions and utilities may be able to leverage bill shocks to promote efficiency investments.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2405
No. 2403 (Revised March 2026)
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations
Abstract: Market participants and policymakers are concerned about major oil production shortfalls driven by geopolitical events. Even when such events never materialize, unanticipated increases in the probability of a production shortfall may generate a surge in the price of oil and oil price uncertainty. We provide the first systematic account of the quantitative importance of time-varying geopolitical risk to oil production for the global economy. We show that a 20 percentage point increase in the probability of a 5% shortfall in oil production causes a 0.12% reduction in output. When considering a 20% shortfall, the drop in output nearly quadruples.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2403r2
No. 2401 (Revised January 2025)
The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices
Abstract: This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals crude in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted much of its crude oil exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power. We also provide a similar analysis for the ESPO price discount on exports to China. In contrast, the price cap deprived Russia of the financial resources it spent on assembling a “shadow” fleet of tankers, but its effect on the Russian oil export price was negligible once the adoption of the price cap had facilitated the use of Western services to transport Russian oil to Asia.
No. 2314 (Revised March 2024)
Investing in the Batteries and Vehicles of the Future: A View Through the Stock Market
Abstract: A large number of companies operating in the EV and battery supply chain have listed on a U.S. stock exchange in recent years. I compile a unique data set of high-frequency stock returns for those companies and investigate the extent to which an “industry” factor specific to the EV and battery supply chain (an “EV” factor) can explain their returns. Those returns are decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, with the former given by a set of latent factors extracted from a large panel of stock returns using high-frequency principal components. It is found that a market factor and a factor associated with tech stocks have good explanatory power for the stocks of interest. I identify an “EV” factor as the first principal component of the idiosyncratic returns and find it has relatively good explanatory power for EV and battery stocks, often exceeding that of the tech factor. There is also evidence for a lithium factor that plays an important role in the returns of lithium companies.
No. 2312
Oil Price Shocks and Inflation
Abstract: Despite growing interest in the impact of oil and other energy price shocks on inflation and inflation expectations, until recently this question has not received much attention. This survey not only presents empirical results for the U.S. economy, but expands the analysis to include other major economies. We find that only in the euro area and in the U.K. energy price shocks are associated with a material increase in core consumer prices. This helps explain the somewhat more persistent response of headline inflation in these countries than in the U.S. or Canada. Inflation is even less sensitive to energy price shocks in Japan. We document that energy price shocks played a more important role in explaining headline inflation in the euro area in 2021 and 2022 than in the U.S. This does not mean that energy price shocks have de-anchored inflation expectations, however. While suitable data on long-run inflation expectations are scant, neither for the U.S. nor the U.K. is there evidence that energy price shocks have materially changed long-run inflation expectations.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2312
No. 2220
The Electric Ceiling: Limits and Costs of Full Electrification
Abstract: Electrification is a centerpiece of global decarbonization efforts. Yet there are reasons to be skeptical of the inevitability, or at least the optimal pace, of the transition. We discuss several under-appreciated costs of full, or even deep, electrification. Consumer preferences can operate in favor of and in opposition to electrification goals; and electrification is likely to encounter physical and economic obstacles when it reaches some as-yet-unknown level. While we readily acknowledge the external benefits of decarbonization, we also explore several under-appreciated external costs. The credibility and eventual success of decarbonization efforts is enhanced by foreseeing and ideally avoiding predictable but non-obvious costs of promising abatement pathways. Thus, even with all of its promise, the degree of electrification may ultimately reach a limit.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2220