Center for Energy and the Economy working papers

Abstract: We draw on evidence from the 2026 Iran War to assess the validity of estimates of the short-run price elasticity of oil supply reported in the literature. Our analysis confirms that the one-month and one-quarter U.S. oil supply elasticity is effectively zero, consistent with estimates in Newell and Prest (2019). The data strongly reject the much higher elasticity estimates reported by more recent studies. This finding is consistent with evidence from surveys of oil company executives and with industry data about how long it takes to complete a well and start pumping oil. It is also consistent with theoretical arguments that the short-run oil supply elasticity is zero if adjusting oil production is costly, as is the case in practice. Our results have important implications for the construction and credibility of structural VAR models of the global oil market.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2625

Read paper

Abstract: We measure the distributional incidence of U.S. motor-fuel tax holidays using transaction records from ∼13,200 gasoline stations linked to neighborhood income. The 2026 Iran War raised gasoline expenditure shares 2.9 times more in the lowest- than highest-income census tracts. Pre-shock exposure accounts for 89% of the gap while the residual heterogeneity widens rather than offsets it. State-level tax holiday lowered retail prices but offset the same fraction (28%) of the per-gallon burden across quintiles. A counterfactual federal holiday preserves this incidence. Per-gallon relief is burden-proportional as it attenuates the shock’s level without correcting its regressive income gradient.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2624

Read paper

Abstract: Utilities increasingly sell electricity using complex menus of time-constant and time-varying price schedules. We study how to design such a menu to maximize social welfare in a second-best environment where the marginal private and external costs of generating electricity vary over time, institutional constraints prevent mandating time-varying pricing and consumer behavior is distorted by frictions. We develop a model of plan choice, consumption and intertemporal substitution with time-varying marginal social costs and estimate it using administrative data from a large utility. We provide evidence of substantial intertemporal substitution in response to time-varying price incentives and selection across plans based on multidimensional heterogeneity. While the current menu’s time-varying plans substantially shift consumption from high-price to low-price hours, we find that they reduce social welfare. This loss is mitigated by information frictions. We show how to redesign the menu to simultaneously improve outcomes for consumers, the utility and the environment.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2623

Read paper

Abstract: We propose a semiparametric local projection estimator of nonlinear impulse response functions for a broad class of structural dynamic models relevant for applied macroeconomics, including models with nonlinearly transformed regressors, state dependent coefficients and nonlinear interactions between shocks and state variables. The estimator is based on a doubly robust moment condition that identifies the average response function as a linear functional of a nonparametric conditional mean, augmented by a density ratio that captures the effect of shifting the shock of interest. We combine this moment condition with cross-fitting that handles serial dependence. The resulting estimator is √  T -consistent and asymptotically normal. We examine the finite-sample performance of the estimator across a range of nonlinear data generating processes and illustrate its use in two empirical examples.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2616

Read paper

Abstract: The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. It is widely believed that the U.S. economy has become less vulnerable to such disruptions as it has reduced its dependence on oil and changed from a major net oil importer to a net oil exporter. We develop a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world. We find that the response of U.S. real GDP growth to the disruption in global oil supplies today is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2615

Appendix DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2615app

Read paper | Appendix

Abstract: Despite the importance of program participation for policy, treatment effects are often measured on self-selected samples. We study electric vehicle (EV) managed charging, intended to reduce electric grid strain by optimally allocating charging across EVs. Prior work finds large impacts of managed charging among households who volunteer for an RCT. In contrast, we test managed charging with an experiment including all EVs within a California utility. Enrollment is low even with high incentives, and we can reject even modest intent-to-treat effects on electricity consumption. Managed charging is less effective than previously thought, underscoring the value of population-wide experiments.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2610

Read paper

Abstract: This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War. We first generate projections of the quarterly price of oil from a calibrated DSGE model of the global economy under a range of scenarios and then incorporate these projections into a monthly VAR model of the impact of U.S. gasoline price shocks on inflation and inflation expectations. Our analysis speaks to the magnitude and persistence of the impact of higher oil prices on headline and core PCE inflation and on household inflation expectations.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2609

Read paper

Abstract: Artificial-intelligence-driven data centers are reversing two decades of flat U.S. electricity demand and have generated questions about how this growth will impact electricity prices. We quantify this effect using an hourly, unit-level least-cost dispatch model covering wholesale electricity markets in the continental United States. We find that existing data centers have already increased wholesale prices by 3 to 5% on average nationwide, with substantially larger effects in regions hosting major data center corridors. Extending the model through 2028, we show that if proposed construction proceeds under high-utilization scenarios, wholesale prices could rise dramatically (50%), while more moderate build-out yields smaller (20%) but still meaningful effects. Impacts vary due to utilization and build-out assumptions. Finally, we use the model to address several policy discussions including optimal data center siting decisions and renewable build-out uncertainty.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2606

Read paper

Abstract: This paper proposes mean group and pooled estimators of impulse responses based on mixed-frequency auxiliary distributed lag (DL), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) or vector autoregressive distributed lag (VARDL) estimating equations. Our setup assumes that the data are generated by a high-frequency VAR process. While the shock of interest is directly observed at high frequency, the outcome variable is only observed as a temporally aggregated variable at a lower frequency. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the six proposed estimators. Monte Carlo experiments show that pooled estimators generally perform better than the corresponding mean group estimators for relevant sample sizes. An empirical illustration to the pass-through from daily wholesale gasoline price shocks to monthly consumer price inflation illustrates the usefulness of the proposed methods.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2603

Read paper

Abstract: Electricity distribution network constraints may ultimately limit the pace of transportation electrification. This paper examines the underappreciated challenges that electric vehicle (EV) adoption poses for the distribution grid. While prior research has focused on bulk power and private service upgrades, we emphasize how local distribution capacity is strained by reduced load diversity at small aggregations. We highlight two alternatives to costly infrastructure expansion: (1) demand-based tariffs that allocate scarce distribution capacity more efficiently, and (2) managed charging programs that coordinate EV loads within local limits. While managed charging reduces transformer overloads and smooths load profiles, consumer participation remains a barrier. Economists can play a key role by designing rate structures that align user incentives with local network constraints and by evaluating consumer acceptance of these solutions as electrification advances.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2540

Read paper