Center for Energy and the Economy working papers
Working papers offering insights on expanding and deepening our collective understanding energy markets and how they inform monetary policy and impact the U.S. economy.
Working Paper
Semiparametric Local Projections
This paper proposes a semiparametric local projection estimator of nonlinear impulse response functions for a broad class of structural dynamic models relevant for applied macroeconomics, including models with nonlinearly transformed regressors, state dependent coefficients and nonlinear interactions between shocks and state variables.
June 30, 2026
Working Paper
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
Working Paper
If You Build It, They May Not Come: Willingness to Participate in Managed EV Charging
This paper tests managed charging with an experiment including all electric vehicles within a California utility.
April 14, 2026
Working Paper
The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis
This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War.
April 07, 2026
Working Paper
Processing Power: The Effect of Data Centers on Wholesale Electricity Markets
Artificial-intelligence-driven data centers are reversing two decades of flat U.S. electricity demand and have generated questions about how this growth will impact electricity prices. This paper quantifies this effect using an hourly, unit-level least-cost dispatch model covering wholesale electricity markets in the continental United States.
March 20, 2026
Working Paper
Mean Group and Pooled Mixed-Frequency Estimators of Responses of Low-Frequency Variables to High-Frequency Shocks
This paper proposes mean group and pooled estimators of impulse responses based on mixed-frequency auxiliary distributed lag (DL), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) or vector autoregressive distributed lag (VARDL) estimating equations.
February 17, 2026
Working Paper
Smooth Operator? Managing Electric Vehicle Integration in Constrained Distribution Networks
This paper examines the underappreciated challenges that electric vehicle (EV) adoption poses for the distribution grid.
December 22, 2025
Working Paper
Pollution Taxes and Clean Subsidies in an Open Economy
This paper shows that the same conditions that lead to pollution leakage enhance the efficacy of clean subsidies.
August 18, 2025
Working Paper
Time-Limited Subsidies: Optimal Taxation with Implications for Renewable Energy Subsidies
Pigouvian subsidies are efficient, but output subsidies with uncertain or limited durations are not Pigouvian. This paper shows that optimal “time-limited” policies must also subsidize investment to correct externalities generated after the output subsidy ends.
August 05, 2025
Working Paper
The Effects of Competition in the Retail Gasoline Industry
This paper estimates the effect of competition on incumbent firm pricing by using high frequency price data and the precise geographic location for all gas stations in California.
March 05, 2025