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Texas Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators
Texas economy dashboard (November 2024)
Job growth (annualized)
Aug.–Nov. '24
Unemployment rate
Avg. hourly earnings
Avg. hourly earnings growth y/y
1.5% 4.2% $33.50 5.0%

The Texas economy expanded modestly in November. Employment growth was sluggish. Initial unemployment claims decreased in mid-December. The November Texas Business Outlook Surveys show continued moderate wage growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. Loan volumes dipped according to the Banking Conditions Survey, and Texas exports ticked down in October.

Labor market

Texas employment expands slightly in November

Texas employment grew an annualized 0.9 percent in November (10,000 jobs) while U.S. employment rose strongly at 1.7 percent. Through November, Texas job growth of 1.6 percent slightly outpaced the nation’s 1.4 percent increase (Chart 1). Texas’ strongest job gains were in the oil and gas and financial activities sectors, expanding more than 5 percent. The  Dallas Fed’s Texas Employment Forecast for 2024 was revised down to 1.6 percent (December/December).

Chart 1

Unemployment insurance initial claims return to trend

Weekly initial unemployment claims ticked down in mid-December and remained significantly below January 2021 levels (Chart 2). New unemployment claims trended down to 16,866 in Texas and to 220,000 in the U.S. as of the week ending Dec. 14. The Texas unemployment rate, as well as the nation’s jobless rate, ticked up to 4.2 percent in November.

Chart 2

Texas labor market less tight than the U.S.

In November, Texas had 0.9 job vacancies per unemployed worker, a measure of labor market tightness. This is lower than the nation’s 1.1 reading (Chart 3). For both the U.S. and Texas, the number of job openings per unemployed worker has been declining steadily since March 2022, and currently both are in line with the pre-pandemic rate.

Chart 3

Texas Business Outlook Surveys

The Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated continued growth in wages in November (Chart 4). The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey wages and benefits index edged down to 18.6 but remained close to its series average. The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey wages and benefits index held steady at 16.4, in line with the series average. Both indexes suggested a continued moderate pace of wage growth.

Chart 4

Banking Conditions Survey

Total loan volumes contracted in November, according to the Dallas Fed's Banking Conditions Survey (Chart 5). The decline was generally broad based, with only commercial real estate lending activity expanding. Meanwhile, commercial and industrial, residential real estate and consumer loan volumes all contracted.

Chart 5

Exports

In October, the three-month moving average of Texas exports declined 1.8 percent, while exports from the rest of the U.S. were flat (Chart 6). The three-month moving average of Texas exports to China decreased 9.2 percent and fell 2.5 percent to Asia (excluding China). Exports to Mexico, the state’s largest trading partner, dipped 1.8 percent. Meanwhile, exports to Latin America (excluding Mexico) grew 3.2 percent relative to September.

Chart 6
 

NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions.

About Texas Economic Indicators

Questions or suggestions can be addressed to Diego Morales-Burnett at diego.morales-burnett@dal.frb.org. Texas Economic Indicators is published every month during the week after state and metro employment data are released.