Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

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Comments from survey respondents

These comments are from respondents’ completed surveys and have been edited for publication.

• Suppliers are demanding longer lead times. Some commodity prices have declined, but value-added items (packaging film) are seeing price increases. We’ll have an annual wage increase in October in the range of 3 to 8 percent. Wages for positions requiring physical work are increasing more than desk jobs.
• Agriculture is hurting. No farm bill, weather and falling prices for our commodities while input costs increase are putting a big squeeze on our industry.
• We are preparing for the recession.
• As the economy weakens, we are seeing modest growth in our category of dinner sausage. This category tends to grow when the economy weakens, as sausage is a good protein substitute for higher-priced proteins and can "stretch" consumers’ food budgets. Additionally, we are expanding our presence in other sales channels, such as food service, which we believe will help our sales in 2025.

• Uncertainty is high, and we are very unsure how the next quarter will go.

• Things are soft but steady.

• We have a new large-machinery line arriving at the end of September that will complement our current line that is getting long in the tooth. It's a huge investment for us, and I'm worried that with business activity slowing down, we may be in for some rough waters for a while. It should generate some healthy activity, and we know it will be much more efficient than our current line.

• Difficulties in ship travel to the Red Sea area have made it difficult to secure ships for bimonthly/quarterly shipments.
• Turbulence in the market, increased global instability and further concerns over U.S. political instability in the current administration have all fueled further weakening in the market.

• Heading into the holiday season with an election in the near future, our customers are beefing up supplies from China for the near term but hitting pause beyond that.

• Incoming orders continue their downward trend. Most of our customers are reporting few orders on their end, especially our building and construction customers, as well as the ones in the transportation segment (trailers). We continue to be negatively affected by foreign competition at much lower price offerings than we can meet.
• Our company is spending significant capital dollars to bring a new product line to our manufacturing operations. This will allow us to enter markets we currently do not service.

• The hurricane interruption caused us to miss two weeks of production.

• The slowdown is settling in with business activity at a very low level.
• Things are just plain bad all over. There is no skilled labor available.
• Our business usually has seasonal decreases in the summer months, but the decrease this summer is more significant than usual. We are now not so sure about the future.
• November cannot come soon enough! We've stagnated as has our competition along with our customer base. It's like we all know the world will continue regardless of who wins, but we're all sitting on our hands until a winner is announced.

• It appears the industry is approaching a cyclical bottom; we see signs of several markets beginning to correct. Regionally, China was strong, U.S. was OK, Europe was weak, and Japan was very weak.
• We are getting more resistance to higher prices from our customers. We are also seeing orders reduced or delayed from a few of the more price-sensitive ones. The biggest uncertainty is about the election; a lot of our customers are taking a "wait and see" approach. All small business owners that I talk to are very concerned about the high-tax, anti-growth and anti-small business policies that [we think] are certain to come from a [Kamala] Harris presidency.

• We are experiencing slower pay on accounts receivable. There is a continued shortage of skilled carpenters and saw operators. Project size has increased from general contractors. Inexperienced architects and construction project managers cause significant construction timeline delays.

• It is increasingly looking like the U.S. has lost its position of strength in geopolitics, and the vacuum is encouraging war and violence, which pose significant risk to international trade and reduce opportunities for U.S. companies. Anti-business, tax and spend rhetoric is not conducive for long-term investments and is going to further reduce U.S. business competitiveness especially against China’s government-supported industries and firms.