Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

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Comments from survey respondents

Survey participants are given the opportunity to submit comments on current issues that may be affecting their businesses. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• Concerns about the economy, the independence of the Fed and tariffs continue to cause uncertainty. We are not certain that [uncertainty] has actually increased as much as it has remained at an uncomfortably elevated level.

• We don't know if it's the shutdown or just that demand has dropped, but our orders have dropped in half.

• There is a continued weakness in the retail consumer market. Interest rates and inflation are certainly factors, but there is a general level of uncertainty in the consumer market that is tied to both political and economic uncertainty.
• Have not been able to initiate work due to a slowdown with our contractor and owner base. We now are hearing that work has been delayed until 2026.

• We are shifting volume to higher-priced products that reflect demand for our organic products. This is a consumer shift that we are seeing due to increased demand for minimally processed foods. This is a positive shift for our company.
• We’re currently facing challenging business conditions on several fronts, including rising raw material costs from national suppliers; supply disruptions and higher prices from international vendors; the loss of a few key distributors that have gone out of business; difficulties in collecting outstanding payments; increased labor costs; and a shortage of qualified candidates.

• Looking forward to a tax rebate for the month of government shutdown.
• November was our most profitable month this year. We are seeing increased business activity and many new projects.
• It seems even the modest decrease in interest rates has assuaged fears of inflation and provided comfort that we are indeed headed in the right direction. Tariff revenue has not dramatically impacted opportunity to grow in our industry, and it has seemingly improved our overall economy. We remain hopeful of continued progress through 2026.

• Tariff uncertainty is the largest impact on our purchasing strategy, along with a rise in employee benefits and costs.

• Currently steady at a low demand and production rate. If no uptick in business in the next 1-2 months, will need some further reduction in workforce to right-size operations.

• In addition to the double-invoicing issue we reported last month—still ongoing, with importers paying tariffs only on the raw material cost rather than the full value of the finished product—auto, truck and aircraft parts have now been temporarily excluded from Section 232 aluminum and steel tariffs. This has led to a surge in imported components and is contributing to job losses across U.S. aluminum manufacturing.
• Expecting 3 percent wage increases going into year 2026. New product line is bolstering business outlook.

• We continue to see soft incoming orders, with poor general activity in our industry. It's as if all the chaos in Washington is creating a lot of wait-and-see attitude among our customers' customers. We are very hopeful that things will improve in the next 6 months.

• Signs indicate business activity is improving, i.e. lowering of interest rate, improving economy and consumer confidence for major purchases.
• We are seeing commercial vehicle production continue to decline. Many of our original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers have open production slots in November and December.
• Business is as delicate today as it was under the previous administration. Small, established businesses have nowhere to turn for help when suddenly paying new tariffs. We purchase raw materials from [Asian nations] and manufacture in the U.S., only to see [those nations’] governments subsidize manufacturing.

Special questions

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on margins, demand, employment and productivity. Results below include responses from participants of all three surveys: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and Texas Retail Outlook Survey. View individual survey results.