Working Paper
Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.
September 19, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Middle East geopolitical risk modestly affects inflation and inflation expectations
In Depth: While hostilities between Iran and Israel ended quickly in June 2025 without a major oil supply disruption, it is worthwhile to explore the impact on inflation and inflation expectations if this geopolitical event had turned out differently.
August 21, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
How sensitive are interest rates to higher federal debt?
The U.S. faces a historically high federal debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure of debt relative to economic output. But how sensitive are interest rates to higher debt?
August 12, 2025
Working Paper
A History of U.S. Tariffs: Quantifying Strategic Trade-Offs in Tariff Policy Design
U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals—revenue, protection and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, this paper illustrates these trade-offs through the lens of tariff Laffer curves.
August 05, 2025
Speeches and essays
Opening remarks for moderated conversation at the World Affairs Council of San Antonio
Dallas Fed President Logan's base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation sustainably back to target, but she believes it's also quite plausible that some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon.
July 15, 2025
Speeches and essays
Opening remarks for Fed Listens
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan spoke ahead of a Fed Listens roundtable in El Paso, part of an event series to hear from people across the country about how the Fed's monetary policy framework affects businesses and communities.
June 03, 2025
Speeches and essays
Opening remarks for conversation at Greater Waco Chamber
President Lorie Logan delivered remarks on how the Federal Reserve's federated structure and monetary policy independence serve the country.
May 29, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Has the Beige Book become disconnected from economic data?
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a key tool for identifying U.S. business-cycle shifts, has traditionally aligned with economic data. However, postpandemic, its economic characterizations often appear weaker than what hard data indicated, raising concerns of divergence from official statistics.
May 27, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. tariff outcomes dependent on trading partner responses
In Depth: U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously.
May 13, 2025
Working Paper
Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge
In August 2020, the Federal Reserve replaced Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) with Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), introducing make-up strategies that allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target. Using a synthetic control approach, this paper estimates that FAIT raised CPI inflation by about 1 percentage point and core CPI inflation by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a moderate impact net of food and energy and a largely temporary effect. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a steeper-than-expected post-pandemic Phillips curve in the New Keynesian model.
April 09, 2025