Globalization Institute Working Paper
Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.
April 03, 2025
Strong U.S. employment driven by sectors less sensitive to business cycles
The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.
April 01, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics
Using bilateral trade flows from detailed global input-output data and a gravity framework, this paper estimates trade cost shocks and their effects on CPI inflation.
March 04, 2025
Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline
The ratio of house prices to rents in the U.S. has risen 20 percent since first quarter 2020, coinciding with the beginning of the pandemic. The ratio is near its previous high in 2006. The future course of inflation may well be influenced by how this now-lofty ratio reverts to a more usual level.
February 25, 2025
Is inflation still slowing? Early 2025 data pivotal to outlook
January inflation data were stronger in 2023 and 2024 than forecasters expected, even after more encouraging results had been reported for the ends of 2022 and 2023. Rather than reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties, this pattern may be caused by a large share of firms changing prices at the start of a new year.
February 11, 2025
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Opening remarks for panel on ‘Future challenges for monetary policy in the Americas’
At the Bank for International Settlements’ Chapultepec Conference, Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan discussed future challenges for monetary policy in the Americas and the role of the neutral interest rate.
February 06, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Dynamics of Market Power in Monetary Economies
This paper studies the dynamic interplay between monetary policy and market power in a decentralized monetary economy. Building on Choi and Rocheteau (2024), its key innovation is to model rent seeking as a process that takes time, allowing market power to evolve gradually.
January 07, 2025
Inflation stress and concern remain elevated despite stabilizing prices
Despite consumer price inflation falling considerably since peaking in 2022, household inflation-related stress and concern remain elevated, having dropped only slightly.
December 31, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
The Problem of Quality Change in Historical Price Statistics: An Illustrative Example Using Baedeker Travel Guides
This paper uses a novel dataset on the prices of the travel guidebooks published by the German publishing house Baedeker between 1832 and 1944 to construct a hedonic price index for guidebooks. Comparing these indexes to the list prices of these guidebooks, the paper shows that the failure to adjust for improvements in the quality of the guidebooks over time imparts a substantial upward bias to measured inflation.
November 26, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
What Imports to Import Prices?
This study offers new insights into exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using U.S. import price indexes by country-of-origin, covering two decades of monthly data.
October 25, 2024