Working Paper
Globalization, Inflation Dynamics and the Slope of the Phillips Curve
This paper studies how international trade has affected U.S. inflation dynamics. The authors develop a multi-region New Keynesian model of an open monetary union in which regional Phillips curve slopes depend on exposure to imported goods.
September 22, 2026
Working Paper
Risk Management in Monetary Policy: A Review with Asset Pricing Implications
This paper reviews recent research on how the Fed’s risk-management approach shapes the overall policy stance and how it affects financial market conditions. The evidence shows that the policy stance contains a forward-looking, conditional component that has long been an integral part of the Fed’s policymaking toolkit.
September 01, 2026
Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in August was 2.2 percent.
August 26, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Mitigating tariffs via USMCA may have limited 2025 price increases
Higher tariffs do not automatically show up one-for-one in consumer prices. Price effects depend on how firms respond. Foreign exporters may cut pre-tariff prices to preserve access to the U.S. market, while domestic importers or retailers may absorb part of the increase with lower margins.
August 18, 2026
Southwest Economy
Momentum builds in the Texas economy; wage pressures broaden
The Texas economy strengthened in the second quarter, with job growth accelerating and business activity expanding. A pickup in temporary hiring is a positive signal for Texas’ labor market.
August 17, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Alternative Trimmed Mean PCE inflation measure better tracked price surge
To gauge the medium-term trend in underlying inflation, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate drops price changes in the tails of the monthly distribution of PCE components, minimizing the impact of outliers.
August 13, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
How USMCA compliance cushioned the 2025 tariff shock
Despite regional sourcing and compliance costs, USMCA-based firms enjoy an edge over competitors outside North America facing higher U.S. tariffs.
August 04, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Fed’s forecasting edge ebbed prepandemic, persisted in downside inflation surprises
We compare Federal Reserve Board staff forecasts with professional forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators for headline Consumer Price Index inflation. The relevant question then is not whether inflation forecasts matter, but rather what their content reveals.
May 21, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026
We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.
May 05, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Implications of the Iran war for U.S. inflation
Recent research quantifies the impact of 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation and household inflation expectations under a range of scenarios. Under a plausible scenario, 2026 fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter headline personal consumption expenditures inflation would increase by 0.6 percentage points.
April 17, 2026