Payment system design can encourage intraday liquidity efficiency
Efficient allocation of bank reserves improves central bank balance sheet efficiency. Frictions in such redistribution can affect monetary policy implementation.
October 02, 2025
Speech by President Lorie Logan
Why I’ll be cautious about further rate cuts
While the labor market has undeniably slowed, not all of the slowing represents economic slack, and inflation remains persistently above target.
September 30, 2025
U.S. Economy
Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in August was 2.7 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 2.7 percent on a 12-month basis, and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 2.9 percent on a 12-month basis.
September 26, 2025
What is keeping core inflation above 2 percent?
How much is current "excess" inflation? We take a new approach to this question, focusing on movements in relative prices.
September 23, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.
September 19, 2025
Middle East geopolitical risk modestly affects inflation and inflation expectations
In Depth: While hostilities between Iran and Israel ended quickly in June 2025 without a major oil supply disruption, it is worthwhile to explore the impact on inflation and inflation expectations if this geopolitical event had turned out differently.
August 21, 2025
How sensitive are interest rates to higher federal debt?
The U.S. faces a historically high federal debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure of debt relative to economic output. But how sensitive are interest rates to higher debt?
August 12, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
A History of U.S. Tariffs: Quantifying Strategic Trade-Offs in Tariff Policy Design
U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals—revenue, protection and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, this paper illustrates these trade-offs through the lens of tariff Laffer curves.
August 05, 2025
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Opening remarks for moderated conversation at the World Affairs Council of San Antonio
Dallas Fed President Logan's base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation sustainably back to target, but she believes it's also quite plausible that some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon.
July 15, 2025
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Opening remarks for Fed Listens
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan spoke ahead of a Fed Listens roundtable in El Paso, part of an event series to hear from people across the country about how the Fed's monetary policy framework affects businesses and communities.
June 03, 2025