Inflation

• Average inflation over the pandemic avoids 'base-effect' distortions

  Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic early last year, the nation has seen enormous swings in consumer prices, with extraordinary declines last spring giving way to similarly eye-popping increases as the economy has reopened.

  May 13, 2021

• Fed’s new inflation targeting policy seeks to maintain well-anchored inflation expectations

  The Fed’s evolving understanding of the economy and its reassessment of the natural rate of interest have led to arguably the most significant policy change since 2012.

  April 06, 2021

• Global Perspectives: Mark Carney on leading the Bank of England, climate change, COVID-19 and community involvement

  Mark Carney, special envoy for climate action and finance at the United Nations, discussed climate change and central banks, COVID-19 and central banking, the complementary roles of monetary and fiscal policy, and community engagement with Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan.

  December 01, 2020

• Global Perspectives: John B. Taylor on the Taylor Rule, accommodative policy, low interest rates and expanded central bank mandates

  Taylor and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed the origins of the Taylor Rule, the dangers of holding monetary policy too accommodative for too long, the distributional effects of low interest rates and expanded central bank mandates.

  November 24, 2020

• Global Perspectives: Banco de México’s Alejandro Díaz de León on COVID-19, trade and inflation targeting

  Díaz de León and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed COVID-19, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and inflation targeting.

  October 27, 2020

• A new view of the relationship between oil prices, gasoline prices and inflation expectations

  It has been considered self-evident until recently that oil prices drive inflation expectations, but new evidence calls into question this conclusion.

  September 22, 2020

• Another benefit of trimming: smaller inflation revisions

  With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy.

  August 06, 2019

• Consumers’ and economists’ differing inflation views can complicate policymaking

  Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making.

  June 25, 2019

• Room to grow? Inflation and labor market slack

  Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.

  May 30, 2019

• Which core to believe? Trimmed mean versus ex-food-and-energy inflation

  Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course.

  May 28, 2019