Dallas Fed Economics
Inflation in services likely to rise further despite slowing goods prices
Given rising demand for in-person services, the slow pass-through of surging house prices to rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER), and higher health care worker wages, services inflation is likely to increase further.
September 06, 2022
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index fell an annualized 0.8 percent in July after increasing an annualized 12.2 percent in June.
August 26, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Rent inflation expected to accelerate then moderate in mid-2023
With housing price moderation, it is important to assess the implications for rent inflation and OER inflation and, in particular, whether they may soon ease and help slow overall inflation.
August 16, 2022
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth.
August 01, 2022
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, this paper documents that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT considerably more than predicted had the strategy not changed.
July 30, 2022
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 12.0 percent in June after increasing an annualized 7.2 percent in May.
July 29, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Fed’s 1994 rate aggressiveness led to emerging-market turmoil; is this time different?
As the Federal Reserve embarks on a monetary tightening cycle, only a few spots of vulnerability have appeared among emerging markets.
July 12, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Monetary policy at a crossroads: Donald Kohn on controlling inflation, Ukraine effects, Volcker-era lessons
Former Fed Vice Chair Kohn discussed the challenges of reining in inflation and other topics in a policy panel during a recent meeting of the Society for Computational Economics at Southern Methodist University.
July 05, 2022
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 7.3 percent in May after increasing an annualized 2.9 percent in April.
June 30, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
High fuel prices in the U.S. may crimp oil demand soon
If prices climb higher, expect consumers to respond by cutting back on fuel consumption and overall spending sooner than later.
June 21, 2022