Research Department Working Papers
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth.
August 01, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, this paper documents that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT considerably more than predicted had the strategy not changed.
July 30, 2022
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 12.0 percent in June after increasing an annualized 7.2 percent in May.
July 29, 2022
Fed’s 1994 rate aggressiveness led to emerging-market turmoil; is this time different?
As the Federal Reserve embarks on a monetary tightening cycle, only a few spots of vulnerability have appeared among emerging markets.
July 12, 2022
Monetary policy at a crossroads: Donald Kohn on controlling inflation, Ukraine effects, Volcker-era lessons
Former Fed Vice Chair Kohn discussed the challenges of reining in inflation and other topics in a policy panel during a recent meeting of the Society for Computational Economics at Southern Methodist University.
July 05, 2022
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 7.3 percent in May after increasing an annualized 2.9 percent in April.
June 30, 2022
High fuel prices in the U.S. may crimp oil demand soon
If prices climb higher, expect consumers to respond by cutting back on fuel consumption and overall spending sooner than later.
June 21, 2022
Russia’s war on Ukraine will leave scars on U.S., world economies
The conflict may alter the global economic and geopolitical order, leading to a new era of deglobalization.
May 17, 2022
Recent inflation surges have modestly affected long-term expectations
Improvements in Federal Reserve credibility over the last 40 years have ensured that inflation expectations, particularly long-term inflation expectations, have so far remained well-anchored despite surging current inflation.
April 05, 2022
Nominal GDP outlook suggests it’s time to end monetary accommodation
We argue that the policy response to COVID-19 has been broadly on track to date but that continued monetary accommodation (lowering interest rates or purchasing assets) risks fueling excessive inflation.
January 13, 2022