Inflation

• Monetary policy at a crossroads: Donald Kohn on controlling inflation, Ukraine effects, Volcker-era lessons

  Former Fed Vice Chair Kohn discussed the challenges of reining in inflation and other topics in a policy panel during a recent meeting of the Society for Computational Economics at Southern Methodist University.

  July 05, 2022

• Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

  Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2022

  The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 7.3 percent in May after increasing an annualized 2.9 percent in April.

  June 30, 2022

• High fuel prices in the U.S. may crimp oil demand soon

  If prices climb higher, expect consumers to respond by cutting back on fuel consumption and overall spending sooner than later.

  June 21, 2022

• Russia’s war on Ukraine will leave scars on U.S., world economies

  The conflict may alter the global economic and geopolitical order, leading to a new era of deglobalization.

  May 17, 2022

• Recent inflation surges have modestly affected long-term expectations

  Improvements in Federal Reserve credibility over the last 40 years have ensured that inflation expectations, particularly long-term inflation expectations, have so far remained well-anchored despite surging current inflation.

  April 05, 2022

• Nominal GDP outlook suggests it’s time to end monetary accommodation

  We argue that the policy response to COVID-19 has been broadly on track to date but that continued monetary accommodation (lowering interest rates or purchasing assets) risks fueling excessive inflation.

  January 13, 2022

• Why house prices surged as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold

  In the wake of the short but steep COVID-19 recession, house prices have risen at record levels in recent months, hitting the peak increase of 19.3 percent in July 2021.

  December 28, 2021

• Limited Impact of Rising Energy Prices on U.S. Inflation, Inflation Expectations in 2020–23

  Predictions of $100 per barrel oil during the coming winter have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. However, quantitative analysis suggests that these concerns have been overstated.

  November 23, 2021

• Using inflation expectations to boost consumer spending poses policy risks

  Communication that raises inflation expectations has been suggested as a policy tool for central banks. Our research suggests that this policy tool has some limitations that central banks must manage when implementing it.

  September 07, 2021

• Surging house prices expected to propel rent increases, push up inflation

  The inflation rates of rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER)—the amount of rent equivalent to the cost of ownership—have declined sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic began in February 2020. However, we expect rent inflation and OER inflation to accelerate in the years to come.

  August 24, 2021