Does employers’ worker poaching explain the Beveridge curve’s odd behavior?
Increased worker job-hopping may help explain the odd-shaped post-COVID Beveridge curve and the underlying employment behavior it depicts.
November 22, 2022
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, September 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 4.1 percent in September after increasing an annualized 3.2 percent in August.
November 04, 2022
Whose wages are falling behind the least amid surging inflation?
For a majority of workers, wages didn’t increase as fast as inflation in the 12 months ended in second quarter 2022. Here, we dig deeper to see how outcomes may have differed across groups of workers.
October 18, 2022
More workers find their wages falling even further behind inflation
While the past 25 years have witnessed episodes that show either a greater incidence or larger magnitude of real wage declines, the current time period is unparalleled in terms of the challenge employed workers face.
October 04, 2022
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index fell an annualized 0.8 percent in July after increasing an annualized 12.2 percent in June.
September 30, 2022
Inflation in services likely to rise further despite slowing goods prices
Given rising demand for in-person services, the slow pass-through of surging house prices to rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER), and higher health care worker wages, services inflation is likely to increase further.
September 06, 2022
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index fell an annualized 0.8 percent in July after increasing an annualized 12.2 percent in June.
August 26, 2022
Rent inflation expected to accelerate then moderate in mid-2023
With housing price moderation, it is important to assess the implications for rent inflation and OER inflation and, in particular, whether they may soon ease and help slow overall inflation.
August 16, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth.
August 01, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, this paper documents that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT considerably more than predicted had the strategy not changed.
July 30, 2022