Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the numbers: PCE inflation update, December 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 0.6 percent in December after increasing an annualized 1.2 percent in November.
February 03, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
This paper proposes a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices.
January 06, 2023
Existing low-rate mortgages blunt impact of recent rate surge
The prevalence of low-rate mortgages suggests that future policy rate cuts may not as effectively stimulate household spending through refinancing as during past recessions.
December 27, 2022
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, November 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 1.3 percent in November after increasing an annualized 4.6 percent in October.
December 23, 2022
Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2022
Less-tight labor market helps Texas grow faster than U.S. during pandemic
Amid widespread reports of worker shortages, Texas' not-so-constricted labor markets have helped the state outpace the nation in job growth.
December 22, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks
This paper develops a vector autoregressive model that quantifies the joint impact of shocks to several energy prices on headline and core CPI inflation.
December 21, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?
This paper evaluates the forecasting ability when inflation is viewed as an inherently global phenomenon through the lens of the workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model.
December 20, 2022
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, October 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 4.1 percent in October after increasing an annualized 4.2 percent in September.
December 01, 2022
Does employers’ worker poaching explain the Beveridge curve’s odd behavior?
Increased worker job-hopping may help explain the odd-shaped post-COVID Beveridge curve and the underlying employment behavior it depicts.
November 22, 2022
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, September 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 4.1 percent in September after increasing an annualized 3.2 percent in August.
November 04, 2022