Limited Impact of Rising Energy Prices on U.S. Inflation, Inflation Expectations in 2020–23
Predictions of $100 per barrel oil during the coming winter have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. However, quantitative analysis suggests that these concerns have been overstated.
November 23, 2021
Delta surge disrupts Texas firms less than earlier COVID-19 waves, Dallas Fed surveys say
The overall impact on business of the summer and fall wave of the COVID-19 virus infection was more muted than initial surges because firms were better prepared and demand didn’t plunge as it did before, according to respondents to the Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys.
November 16, 2021
Texas Economy Grows Rapidly Despite Labor, Supply-Chain Constraints
Regional economic activity accelerated sharply in September and October following a summer and early-fall peak of a COVID-19 wave tied to the Delta variant.
November 09, 2021
‘Great ratios’ in economics don’t all add up
"Great ratios" are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth, arbitrage or solvency. However, the empirical literature has tended to find little evidence for them.
October 19, 2021
What might inflation look like next year?
In our baseline scenario, core inflation is 2.6 percent in 2022. If this occurs, core inflation will have averaged 2.4 percent over the last five years, moderately above the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
October 14, 2021
U.S. labor market slack created by COVID-19 pandemic has been absorbed
The weaker-than-expected August labor market report should not obscure the labor market’s ongoing and significant progress while recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
October 07, 2021
Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2021
Federal support keeps state budgets (including Texas’) healthy amid tumult from COVID-19-induced economic ills
An unprecedented federal fiscal response to the COVID-19-induced recession in early 2020 helped prop up state government finances even among states whose tax and finance structures put them at particular risk during a downturn.
September 30, 2021
Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2021
Technology displaced workers in pandemic; retraining must expand
Tamar Jacoby, president of Opportunity America, discusses the pandemic, worker mobility and job training.
September 30, 2021
Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2021
Missteps along U.S.–Mexico border hinder movement of COVID-19 biomedical trade
While most activity in the Paso del Norte region is concentrated in automotive parts and electronic components, a cluster of biomedical manufacturers has emerged in Juárez in recent years.
September 30, 2021
Supply-chain woes, labor shortages and COVID-19 slow resilient Texas economy
Regional economic growth has slowed, though it remains robust by historical standards. While demand has improved from year-ago levels, supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages have limited output growth and pushed up wages and prices.
September 30, 2021