Research Department Working Papers
Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance
This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, the method used in this paper leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values.
May 21, 2025
Even a ‘miracle’ needs a safety net: Texas leads in growth, lags elsewhere
While experiencing exceptional economic growth over the past decade, data show that Texas is last or lagging the nation in several key areas.
March 25, 2025
How Gen Z Texans use credit cards can shed light on their future financial health
Generation Z’s rising debt load has been widely reported, sparking concerns for the financial future of America’s youngest adult generation.
February 20, 2025
As population trends shift, where will future workers come from?
Population is a fundamental determinant of a country’s productive capacity. More specifically, labor, along with capital and the efficiency with which the two can be combined (total factor productivity) determine how much a country can produce at any point in time.
January 07, 2025
Individuals, married couples respond differently to U.S. income tax changes
Changes in effective income taxes can impact labor supply with different outcomes for married couples and singles, and changes can have a particularly notable impact on married women.
November 19, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Marriage Market Sorting in the U.S.
This paper examines shifts in the U.S. marriage market, assessing how online dating, demographic changes and evolving societal norms influence mate choice and broader sorting trends.
September 23, 2024
Moving up, falling back or staying still: How income mobility in Texas differs by race, ethnicity
This article analyzes how different demographic groups can climb the income ladder and move into higher-income groups.
July 19, 2024
Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output
U.S. labor market conditions are among the main drivers of an unprecedented surge of immigration, the exact size and consequences of which are still being assessed.
July 02, 2024
Income disparities between white and Hispanic and Black Texans seen from 2005 to 2019
In the United States, a great deal of research has documented income disparities across racial and ethnic groups over time. If left unaddressed, those disparities could act as a headwind to future economic growth, especially given the country’s increasingly diverse population.
May 23, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth
This paper builds a unified framework to quantitatively examine how demographic transition and industrial policies have contributed to China’s economic growth in the past five decades.
February 07, 2024