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Forecasting

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.6 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.4 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.6 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 1.7 percent.

  • Rising unemployment doesn’t counter signs of strong GDP growth

    Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP grew strongly during the second and third quarters of 2024, increasing at an annualized pace of 2.9 percent. Yet, the unemployment rate also rose 0.4 percentage points, an unusually large amount except during recessions.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.2 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 2.4 percent.

  • Speech by President Lorie K. Logan

    Navigating in shallow waters: Monetary policy strategy in a better-balanced economy

    After a voyage through rough waters, the shore is in sight: the FOMC’s Congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and stable prices. But the ship hasn't tied up yet, and risks remain that could push the economy back out to sea or slam it into the dock too hard.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 2.7 percent.

  • Speech by President Lorie K. Logan

    Foundational considerations in a changing economy

    President Lorie K. Logan offers her views on the evolving economy and how she is continuing to apply foundational considerations to thinking about monetary policy in this new environment.

  • Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable

    The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.2 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 2.5 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.4 to 2.4 percent.