Inflation forecasts based on money growth proved accurate in 2021, though generally unreliable
As money demand changes, and in particular as money velocity fluctuates with interest rates, this relationship can become unstable with money growth providing limited useful information for inflation forecasting.
February 20, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.0 percent (283,500 jobs added) in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.8 percent.
February 09, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 3.2 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.1 to 3.3 percent.
December 22, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 3.2 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.0 to 3.4 percent.
November 17, 2023
Korea, Japan growth experiences suggest China’s economy to slow in next 20 years
The Chinese economy has grown at an unprecedented pace since the 1980s. However, the pace of growth is likely to slow as China’s economy matures because of its demographic structure and its increasing proximity to economic and technological frontiers.
November 14, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 3.3 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.1 to 3.5 percent.
October 20, 2023
How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?
A normalized labor market likely entails a more-usual relationship between layoffs and labor market tightness indicators, and sooner or later, a higher unemployment rate.
October 19, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.9 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.6 to 3.3 percent.
September 15, 2023
Policy impact of unexpected Fed rate movements blurred by key information cues
Unexpected Federal Reserve monetary policy moves can profoundly affect market participants, investors and the economy. The impact of policy stems not only from its direct effects—the traditional focus for economists—but also from the new information revealed about the Fed’s economic outlook.
August 22, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 3.0 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.6 to 3.4 percent.
August 18, 2023