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Globalization Institute Working Paper
A Theory of Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle
This paper develops a theory to account for changes in net capital flows of safe and risky assets over the global financial cycle.
May 05, 2023
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Mexico awaits ‘nearshoring’ shift as China boosts its direct investment
When it comes to trading goods with the United States, Mexico would appear a logical sourcing alternative to China. Before the pandemic, increasing friction between the U.S. and China—the top supplier of goods imports to the U.S. in 2019—contributed to an anticipated “nearshoring” shift among companies dependent on Asia.
April 14, 2023
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Globalization Institute Working Paper
On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs
This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the U.S. and its major trading partners.
March 29, 2023
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Capital flowed from emerging markets as pandemic, economic cycle took hold
Fluctuations in the global financial cycle, reflecting impacts from the COVID crisis, account for roughly one-third of the movement in emerging-market inflows during 2020–23.
March 07, 2023
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Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates
While house-price growth has recently begun to moderate—or, in some countries, to decline—the risk of a deep global housing slide persists.
February 28, 2023
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Dallas Fed, Latin American central banks explore financial stability risks
The COVID-19 pandemic, recent monetary tightening and a strengthening U.S. dollar were the themes explored during a recent conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) and held at CEMLA’s Mexico City headquarters.
February 16, 2023
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Tax, transfer programs explain why Western Europeans work less than Americans
Western Europe differs from the United States not only in consumption tax, income tax and social security systems but also in the total factor productivity—a measure of productivity—for market production in which most European countries are low.
January 19, 2023
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High inflation disproportionately hurts low-income households
Household survey results do not support Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman's recent suggestion that low-income families “have actually been hurt less by inflation than families with higher incomes.”
January 10, 2023
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Decentralized finance proposed as alternative to traditional financial services
DeFi applications allow users to directly interact with each other to borrow, lend, insure and exchange digital assets without centralized intermediaries, such as banks and custodial exchanges.
January 03, 2023
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Globalization Institute Working Paper
Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?
This paper evaluates the forecasting ability when inflation is viewed as an inherently global phenomenon through the lens of the workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model.
December 20, 2022