Dallas Fed Economics
Mexico gains from U.S.-China trade war; inefficiencies limit benefit
A sequence of major economic and geopolitical events has reshaped the structure of global trade in the past decade. It began with U.S. imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018. The postpandemic followed with widespread disruption to global value chains—the process of manufacturing a product in stages across several countries.
May 12, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026
We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.
May 05, 2026
Working Paper
The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis
This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War.
April 07, 2026
Working Paper
Multinationals and Structural Transformation
Using confidential microdata from Japan and exploiting a quasi-exogenous reform that expanded foreign investment opportunities in China, this paper assesses empirically how this reform affected employment at firms in both the host country (China) and the home country (Japan).
March 30, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy
The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
March 20, 2026
Special Report
Taiwan firms key to nearshoring and reshoring to support AI boom
While China’s trade and investment with Mexico have attracted significant attention, Taiwan firms’ investment in both Mexico and Texas is arguably more significant for the evolution of U.S.–Mexico production networks.
March 06, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Global Institute presentation: Steve Kamin on the dollar’s status
During a presentation and discussion hosted by the Global Institute last month, Steve Kamin discussed how tariffs, volatility and evolving payment technologies are challenging—but not yet dislodging—the dollar’s position as a reserve currency at the center of the global financial system.
December 31, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
China manufacturing overcapacity boosts output, stagnation fears
Nearly 30 percent of China's industrial firms operate at a loss, up from 20 percent before the pandemic. The question arises: How can this be sustained?
December 30, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
China debt overhang leads to rising share of ‘zombie’ firms
China’s private sector debt ballooned from 2008 through 2016, among the largest and most sustained such increases historically. Notably, this Chinese credit growth was financed entirely from domestic savings, unlike many other examples of rapid credit expansion elsewhere.
December 23, 2025
Working Paper
Optimal Foreign Reserve Intervention and Financial Development
This paper documents evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase.
November 03, 2025