Central bank swaps offer dollar crisis lifeline to non-U.S. banks
Starting in late 2007, the Federal Reserve, in partnership with a few major foreign central banks, began offering central bank dollar liquidity swap lines as an important liquidity backstop.
September 30, 2025
China expands Mexico investment but notably lags U.S., other G7 economies
China has been the fastest growing source of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Mexico in recent years. Chinese investment has also become a prominent issue in U.S.-Mexico economic relations. However, this FDI remains small compared with U.S. investment in Mexico.
September 26, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.
September 19, 2025
Are trade deficits good or bad, and can tariffs reduce them?
Typically, trade deficits are viewed through a lens of exports and imports, with the latter exceeding the former. While that is a useful exercise, it’s also helpful to examine deficits through a macroeconomic lens.
September 04, 2025
Middle East geopolitical risk modestly affects inflation and inflation expectations
In Depth: While hostilities between Iran and Israel ended quickly in June 2025 without a major oil supply disruption, it is worthwhile to explore the impact on inflation and inflation expectations if this geopolitical event had turned out differently.
August 21, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Pollution Taxes and Clean Subsidies in an Open Economy
This paper shows that the same conditions that lead to pollution leakage enhance the efficacy of clean subsidies.
August 18, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
A History of U.S. Tariffs: Quantifying Strategic Trade-Offs in Tariff Policy Design
U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals—revenue, protection and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, this paper illustrates these trade-offs through the lens of tariff Laffer curves.
August 05, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows
This paper studies empirically and theoretically the effects of international financial flows on resource allocation.
August 01, 2025
China remains modest player in U.S.–Mexico trade despite growing scrutiny
Understanding Mexico’s evolving economic linkages with East Asia and China is critical to the future of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA trade accord) and the nearshoring and integration of North American manufacturing supply chains.
July 09, 2025
U.S. tariff outcomes dependent on trading partner responses
In Depth: U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously.
May 13, 2025