U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
January 16, 2024
Arbitrage limits heighten dollar shortages abroad during volatile times
U.S. dollars are hard to find in foreign markets during times of heightened risk, as evidenced by two interesting and related features in the post-2007 international financial landscape.
January 09, 2024
Korea, Japan growth experiences suggest China’s economy to slow in next 20 years
The Chinese economy has grown at an unprecedented pace since the 1980s. However, the pace of growth is likely to slow as China’s economy matures because of its demographic structure and its increasing proximity to economic and technological frontiers.
November 14, 2023
Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve offers chance to recalibrate its size
A series of emergency drawdowns, exchanges and planned sales since 2020 have reduced crude oil inventories held by the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a 40-year low. Calls to fully refill the SPR in recent months raise important questions.
October 03, 2023
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility.
September 29, 2023
Mexican peso strength noteworthy among emerging markets during Fed tightening
Many emerging-market currencies have depreciated modestly during the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle that began in March 2022. The Mexican peso, however, outperformed the group during the period.
September 26, 2023
Globalization Institute Working Paper
A Theory of Capital Flow Retrenchment
This paper shows that a negative global shock (rise in global risk-aversion) generates an identical drop in gross inflows and outflows.
August 23, 2023
Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies.
August 08, 2023
Mexico seeks to solidify rank as top U.S. trade partner, push further past China
Mexico's emergence followed fractious U.S. relations with China, which had moved past Canada to claim the top trading spot in 2014. The dynamic changed in 2018 when the U.S. imposed tariffs on China’s goods and with subsequent pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions that altered international trade and investment flows worldwide.
July 11, 2023
Mexican IT services firm pitches ‘nearshoring’ as alternative to overseas ties
Softek chief executive Beni Lopez discusses the competitive challenges the firm faces in the North American market, where many of the world’s leading tech services firms are based, and the genesis of the company’s nearshoring strategy.
July 07, 2023