Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2022
Globalization remains a force despite pandemic, political strains
Pol Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, discusses international trade flows and what the evidence suggests about the world economy and the accompanying debate about whether an era of deglobalization may be at hand.
October 03, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Consumption and Hours in the United States and Europe
This paper documents large differences between the United States and Europe in allocations of expenditures and time for both market and home activities.
September 08, 2022
Vaccines were key to curbing COVID-19 in Europe; other measures also useful
Vaccine uptake was the most important factor in reducing effective transmission rates in 2021, though the other factors helped bring infections under control.
August 23, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Uncertainty, Stock Prices and Debt Structure: Evidence from the U.S.-China Trade War
Using the recent U.S.-China trade war as a laboratory, this paper shows that policy uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on stock prices.
August 19, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, this paper documents that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT considerably more than predicted had the strategy not changed.
July 30, 2022
Fed’s 1994 rate aggressiveness led to emerging-market turmoil; is this time different?
As the Federal Reserve embarks on a monetary tightening cycle, only a few spots of vulnerability have appeared among emerging markets.
July 12, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe
This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 transmission rates and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government-mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of new variants.
July 12, 2022
Russia counters sanctions’ impact with currency controls, averts crisis (for now)
The Russian central bank responded to unprecedented sanctions with strict capital controls that have stabilized the value of its currency—the ruble.
May 31, 2022
Commodity financing markets shaken by Russia invasion; monitoring for U.S. financial stress
While volatility in commodity markets is not unusual, rapid and correlated price increases across many different types of commodities at once is much rarer.
April 14, 2022
Asset prices, leverage and portfolio rebalancing drive global capital flows cycle
The amount of leverage—borrowed funds relative to the value of underlying assets—increases for risky holdings during downturns, motivating their ultimate sale to achieve a more secure financial position. The opposite occurs during upswings, as risky assets gain favor.
November 30, 2021