Exploring economic ties with Mexico and the world
The Global Institute advances policy-driven research on global trade, international capital and migration flows, and knowledge and technology transfer with a particular interest in linkages with Mexico. Through this expertise, the Institute delivers insights and analysis to better inform U.S. monetary policy.
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Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
Texas tends to report higher employment and output when oil prices sharply increase. But uncertainty regarding the duration of elevated prices could mute such impacts from the price shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Mexico’s monthly GDP estimate increased in April, following an annualized 2.4 percent contraction in output in the first quarter of 2026.
Database of Global Economic Indicators
Headline Consumer Price Index inflation
Changes in the price level of a basket of goods and services purchased by households.
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Special report
Breaking China: Reordering global trade and the evolving U.S.–Mexico relationship
This series examines the evolving trade and investment linkages between China and North America and the broader policy implications. The interaction of trade flows, foreign direct investment and regional production strategies across borders is of special note.
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Working papers and research
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
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The Interest Rate Effect of Government Debt and Deficits: Does Domestic Borrowing Have a Different Impact Than Foreign Borrowing?
This paper investigates the relationship between government debt and interest rates in advanced economies.
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The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis
This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War.
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Multinationals and Structural Transformation
Using confidential microdata from Japan and exploiting a quasi-exogenous reform that expanded foreign investment opportunities in China, this paper assesses empirically how this reform affected employment at firms in both the host country (China) and the home country (Japan).
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Optimal Foreign Reserve Intervention and Financial Development
This paper documents evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase.
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Household Consumption and Savings over the Life Cycle: The Roles of Demographics and Durables
This paper provides a novel developing-country perspective by analyzing patterns of life-cycle consumption, income and savings rates in India.
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Featured event
Texas–Mexico Energy Trade: Local and Global Impacts
This conference, co-sponsored by the SMU Mission Foods Texas–Mexico Center, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Dallas Fed Global Institute, will examine the opportunities and vulnerabilities in Texas' rapidly evolving energy trade landscape.
Event details
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Additional resources
Database of Global Economic Indicators
This database standardizes and disseminates world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization.
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Index of global real economic activity
This business-cycle index is expressed in percent deviations from trend. It is derived from a panel of dollar-denominated global bulk dry cargo shipping rates and may be viewed as a proxy for the volume of shipping in global industrial commodity markets.
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International House Price Database
The International House Price Database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for 25 different countries with data since 1975.
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Special reports
Breaking China: Reordering global trade and the evolving U.S.–Mexico relationship
This series examines the evolving trade and investment linkages between China and North America and the broader policy implications. The interaction of trade flows, foreign direct investment and regional production strategies across borders is of special note.
Read more
Forging a New Path in North American Trade and Immigration
The proceedings from this 2019 conference explore challenges and opportunities presented by the USMCA.
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NAFTA at 20: Effects on the North American Market
Proceedings of the 2014 conference that brought together leading academic and government researchers who explored the realities of the landmark trade agreement.
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Contact us
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Global Institute, Research Department
2200 N. Pearl St.
Dallas, TX 75201
katie.novy@dal.frb.org
Global Institute
